The Dodgers have called up top prospect Julio Urias to start Friday against the Mets because they believe that is the proper decision.
But they will not let the 19-year-old keep starting the rest of the season — even if he excels — because they believe that also is the proper decision.
The Dodgers — like the Yankees — are the largest of payroll teams trying to walk the tightrope between winning now while making decisions that could hurt the now for the good of the future.
The Dodgers, in fact, might be in a more perilous spot. They have not won a championship since 1988, and there is a strong sentiment among many fans and media in Los Angeles that the highly paid, analytics-leaning front office has overemphasized the future by, among other things, not trading prospects for Cole Hamels last July or extending further to keep Zack Greinke from fleeing for Arizona as a free agent.
Now, here comes Urias, arguably the best pitching prospect in the majors and — no argument — the Dodgers’ best pitching prospect since Clayton Kershaw. He arrives at a time when Los Angeles is underperforming its payroll again and has a beat-up rotation.
Urias has thrived in the minors, displaying a precocious feel for pitching in tandem with high-end stuff. However, he never has thrown more than 89 pitches in a game, worked longer than six innings or totaled better than 87 2/3 innings in a season. He already has logged 41 innings this year at Triple-A (and a 1.10 ERA). Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said by phone Friday — just hours before Urias’ first major league pitch — that Urias is not in the rotation to stay.
So I asked if that puts him and the organization in the same spot as the Nationals were in 2012 — they had championship aspirations and opportunities, but shut down arguably their best starter, Stephen Strasburg, in September to avoid overtaxing him following Tommy John surgery. The Nats were eliminated in the Division Series without Strasburg, and the criticism never has waned, even as Strasburg has remained mostly healthy since and just earned a seven-year, $175 million contract.
“The other side is just not to bring him up and put yourself in position [for criticism], and isn’t that far worse?” Friedman said. “We will get creative to maximize innings to develop him and win games. They will not be as many as he likes or we like, but we just can’t do anything that knowingly increases chances of dramatically altering his career. You just can’t do that.”
Keep in mind: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pulled Ross Stripling in his major league debut April 8, though the righty had a no-hitter through seven innings, because he was at 100 pitches and was entering pitch-count territory he previously had never approached.
This is the constant debate now — mostly old school vs. new school. The just-let-them-pitch camp (in games, despite pitch counts, and in season, despite innings totals) vs. those trying to find the proper protocols to best protect arms, specifically against the need for Tommy John surgery.
Friedman would not divulge an innings limit for Urias, but it would be hard to see the Dodgers letting him go much beyond 120. Friedman did say Urias could get to his inning cap out of the pen. But the lefty is unfamiliar with that role, so Friedman explained the Dodgers would need to have an eight-man pen (as they currently do) and not seven, because Urias has not learned how to go back-to-back days as a reliever or warm up and sit down in the pen. Friedman said he believes that is more stressful to the arm than Urias’ familiar routine of working every five days.
Urias is stepping in for Alex Wood (triceps), who is expected to return to his role next week. Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu, currently on the disabled list, are working toward the majors to join Kershaw, Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda. Friedman said he expects rotation depth to eventually be a strength of the team. It also might provide an easier way to remove Urias from starting consideration.
But Urias projects as special. His arrival – despite his age – has been anticipated for a few years already. And once unwrapped, it may be tricky to put Urias in baseball bubble wrap again.
Friedman said Urias’ “talent deserved this opportunity,’” but also “the variable we work with is we can’t knowingly increase the chance for injury.”
The Dodgers are on the tightrope.