The biggest problem for the 2016 Mets is the 2017 Mets … and 2018 and 2019.
Conventional wisdom was the 2015 NL East title was just the beginning of the good times, notably because of the might of the Mets’ rotation. How do you feel about that today?
The 2016 campaign is setting up as one of the most disappointing in franchise history — and this is a franchise swathed in disappointment. But it has less to do with failing to win consecutive division titles for the first time ever or to dominate in even a tepid wild-card chase or simply to hold onto the concept of being the team of New York for more than an eye blink.
It is that so much of what has fostered the 2016 plummet augurs poorly for the Mets’ near future, as well:
1. Rotation erosion
After surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, Matt Harvey now will have to return after a second significant arm procedure. Zack Wheeler was supposed to be a second-half gift. But setbacks mean he might not pitch in 2016 after not pitching in 2015, so how much could they count on him in 2017?
Noah Syndergaard and Steve Matz have been diminished this season by bone spurs in their elbow, and now Matz had to be skipped due to a shoulder issue. It all speaks to the fragility of building around starting pitching, even young starters with the talent of this Mets group. The Mets probably will have to re-sign Bartolo Colon for his age-44 season just to have some stability, and even that might not be enough.
It is hard to ignore that Jacob deGrom, Harvey, Matz and Wheeler already have had Tommy John surgery, and Syndergaard would be on the shortlist if you had to guess which power starter might need it next. This might turn out to be the super band that never was.
2. Free agent fallout
Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker have been the Mets’ best hitters. Cespedes can opt out of his contract after this season, and the expectation around the game is he will. Walker is a free agent. Maybe both will be back. But it is going to cost plenty and extend to lengths in future years that will make the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson uncomfortable.
It could be that the Mets feel they have gotten the best they ever are going to get out of the mercurial Cespedes and move on, but how do they replace the production, especially since …
3. Regression pains
Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud have fallen so precipitously. Not long ago it was within reason to see them as the future 3-4 hitters — heck, Conforto was given the No. 3 slot early this season. Now, Conforto is back at Triple-A and the Mets recently were trying to trade d’Arnaud for Jonathan Lucroy because of d’Arnaud’s worsening problems on both sides of the ball in unison with his sustained inability to stay healthy.
Will either rebound? Conforto seems a more likely possibility. But can the Mets make plans around one, the other or both any longer?
4. Corner calamities
The failures of Conforto and d’Arnaud are accentuated because of how much more the Mets needed them with Lucas Duda and David Wright limited to 76 games this year.
Already diminished in effectiveness and reliability by spinal stenosis, Wright needed neck surgery and now his career is in peril, though he is signed through 2020. Duda incurred a stress fracture in his lower back in May and has faced enough setbacks that he likely is done for this season. But what about next year? Do the Mets get a good enough medical report to even tender him a contract in what would be his final season before free agency?
5. No Cespedes
Like Cespedes at the 2015 trade deadline, Jay Bruce was not a perfect fit, but the Mets were so desperate for offense they decided to live with the lack of defensive alignment clarity. But Cespedes minimized the worries with his bat. So far, Bruce has only conjured images of another J.B. — Jason Bay.
It raises questions if the Mets should pick up his $13 million option for 2017. They probably will. But combine that with the $15 million they owe Curtis Granderson on the final year of his deal and the Mets have $28 million invested in can-they-produce question marks for 2017. Add Conforto’s downgrade and you see why Cespedes will opt out of his contract, if only to attempt to pressure the Mets to give him more money and for longer.
6. Sons rising elsewhere
Daniel Murphy (Nationals) and Justin Turner (Dodgers) could finish in the NL MVP top 10, and Michael Fulmer (Tigers) likely is to win the AL Rookie of the Year and could be in the Cy Young discussion. There were valid reasons for the Mets letting all three go. But it is hard to ignore that all three have helped put their teams in better playoff position than the Mets and that all three would have greatly helped the Mets now and into the future.
Turner, who was a utilityman when the Mets let him go, has blossomed into a high-end third baseman and is a free agent after this season. Would the Mets ever try to bring him back?
7. The current sons not rising
Brandon Nimmo came to the majors and indicated — though he was a first-round pick — that scouts have him correct: He is probably a fourth outfielder. Shortstop Gavin Cecchini, another first-round pick, has kept this Triple-A average above .300 pretty much all season, like last year at Double-A, yet despite the Mets’ infield injuries he has yet to be promoted, suggesting the Mets do not see much there. Dilson Herrera was used in a trade for Bruce, removing a second base option if Walker is not re-signed. Kevin Plawecki took a few more steps backward, but not as many as Rafael Montero.
All of this left the Mets thinner now and with less dynamic assets for the near future to promote or trade.
8. Lost faith
Alderson’s patient approach was rewarded last year. But we are seeing how fragile building around pitching can be. He made what I believe was one logical move after another from the offseason through this season, but the Midas touch was not there like in 2015. From the issues above, he has lots to address in the offseason, and that might include finding a new manager.
Indications are Terry Collins will survive the season, but if the Mets fail to reach the postseason his chances to return in 2017 are slim. Mets fans might say good riddance. But finding the right manager in New York is tricky. That so much has gone wrong in 2016 might make it more difficult for Alderson to promote a current coach such as Dickie Scott or Tim Teufel, and be able to sell that to fans as progress.