CINCINNATI — Can they be the comeback kids for a second straight year?
The mood was bleak outside the visitors’ clubhouse in San Francisco on Aug. 19 as Terry Collins conducted his postgame press briefing, after a fourth loss in five games had pushed the Mets two games below .500 and 5 ½ lengths removed from the lead for the NL’s second wild card.
True, Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera had returned from the disabled list, but the lineup appeared stagnant, and Steven Matz was scratched from that night’s start because of shoulder discomfort, replaced by Seth Lugo in the rotation. After the 8-1 loss, the Mets’ playoff chances, according to Fangraphs, stood at 6.7 percent.
But the Mets, after their 5-3 win Tuesday night at Great American Ball Park, have a stunning 13-4 record since that loss, leaving them a game behind the Cardinals and 1 ¹/₂ games in back of the Giants in a battle for the two wild-card spots. And the Mets’ odds of reaching the postseason, according to Fangraphs, have surged to 53.3 percent.
“You have got to have confidence you’re going to come back,” Collins said Tuesday, when asked about the Friday night loss in San Francisco last month. “And that was a tough game, a tough one to lose, but we were short-manned again and we just had a feeling that when we started to get some pieces back that we could get going.”
Last year, the Mets began their surge following the July 31 trade with the Tigers that landed Cespedes. The Mets went 31-11 over the ensuing six weeks and were on their way to clinching the NL East title before reaching the World Series.
Here are the five biggest factors in this year’s surge into contention:
Cespedes and Cabrera
Both are on gimpy legs, but have managed to stay in the lineup on an almost full-time basis since returning from the DL in San Francisco. The veteran shortstop Cabrera has six homers in 12 games — a stretch in which the Mets have hit 24. And Cespedes is batting .317 with six homers since returning.
“It’s made a difference to get those guys back and really kind of takes the heat off some of those younger players that we were asking to play,” Collins said.
Lugo and Gsellman
With Matz on the disabled list and Jacob deGrom sidelined because of forearm discomfort, two unheralded rookies have charged to the rescue.
Lugo is 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA and stepped up biggest Sunday night, allowing one run over seven innings, allowing the Mets to win a series against the Nationals. Robert Gsellman is 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA, resembling deGrom in performance and with hair that hangs to his shoulders.
The wild-card pack
The Giants, Pirates and Marlins all have struggled lately, allowing the Mets to make the most of their recent success. The Pirates and Marlins are clinging to life in the race, and the Giants hardly are the safe bet to reach the postseason that they resembled when the Mets visited AT&T Park. The Mets did their part by winning three of four games against the Marlins last week at Citi Field.
Veteran revival
Kelly Johnson, Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson have emerged as key contributors lately. Johnson has tweaked his swing to become more pull-conscious, and his nine homers in 65 games for the Mets have been needed. Reyes has provided a presence atop the lineup since returning from the DL last month, and Granderson has awoken over the past week after a two-month slumber.
Thor’s return
Noah Syndergaard had slogged through much of the second half with high pitch counts that translated into short outings, but the righty has emerged as the team’s ace again. Syndergaard has pitched to a 1.23 ERA over his past three starts and won twice — including a victory over the Giants that completed the Mets’ visit to San Francisco.