After four years of very good, Cam Newton made the unexpected leap to most valuable last season.
The Panthers quarterback was the runaway choice for the NFL’s MVP award in 2015 thanks to a nearly flawless regular season in which Newton finally lived up to both his talents and his pedigree as a former No. 1 overall pick.
Newton had shown flashes of brilliance in his first four seasons, of course, but nothing that would have led you to believe he would put together a 35:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading perennially mediocre Carolina to a 15-1 regular season and a Super Bowl trip.
How big was Newton’s jump last season? After never posting a quarterback rating better than 88.8 his first four seasons, he turned in a 99.4 rating last year — an eye-popping transformation for a quarterback this late in his career.
Can someone else come close to replicating Newton’s sudden vault into the highest reaches of the NFL’s upper echelon?
Here are 10 dark horse MVP candidates:
1. Russell Wilson, quarterback, Seahawks
You could argue Wilson made the leap into true MVP territory along with Newton last year, when the Seattle passer posted the league’s best passer rating (110.1) while throwing 34 TD passes and just eight interceptions.
With Marshawn Lynch now retired, putting the Seahawks’ hopes firmly in Wilson’s hands, the former third-round pick is probably a lot closer to an MVP favorite this season than a long shot.
Then again, it’s debatable whether Wilson can count on wide receiver Doug Baldwin to replicate his eye-popping breakthrough season in which he came out of nowhere to lead the NFL with 14 TD catches.
2. Todd Gurley, running back, Rams
A running back has won the MVP award just once since 2006 (Adrian Peterson in 2012), and considering how the position has been devalued since then, that drought is likely to continue this year.
But if any back could do it, the leading candidate would be Gurley after an astounding rookie year in which he shook off a devastating college knee injury to rush for 1,106 yards and 10 TDs in just 13 games.
The Rams also have a rookie quarterback (Jared Goff), which means they will probably rely on Gurley even more in a bid to take pressure off their new signal-caller. And one of the hallmarks of coach Jeff Fisher’s long career is riding a workhorse running back.
3. Andrew Luck, quarterback, Colts
Luck is arguably a better candidate for Comeback Player of the Year than MVP after a rough 2015 season that saw the former iron man appear in just seven games due to rib and shoulder injuries.
The Colts went just 2-5 in those Luck starts, too, and his 15:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio was the worst of his career. He also completed just 55.3 percent of his passes, the lowest since his 2012 rookie year.
But Luck is just one year removed from throwing a league-best 40 TD passes, and Indianapolis’ receiving corps led by T.Y. Hilton is formidable. If the Colts can keep Luck upright (always a chore for this team), then a huge, MVP-level rebound for the former No. 1 overall pick is hardly out of the question.
4. Derek Carr, quarterback, Raiders
Oakland seems to be everybody’s favorite dark horse playoff pick this year, and the third-year quarterback is a big reason.
Carr got noticeably better each of his first two seasons, and there is little reason to think he will regress in 2016. And last year was quite impressive as it was, with Carr throwing 32 TDs and just 13 interceptions while completing 61.1 percent of his passes en route to a Pro Bowl berth.
Carr also has Amari Cooper, one of the league’s most impressive young receivers, and a talented young team around him. The Raiders — who haven’t made the playoffs since 2002 — finally need to break through as a team, though, for Carr to enter the MVP conversation.
5. Kirk Cousins, quarterback, Redskins
Hey, crazier things have happened.
Crazier things like Cousins leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.8) last year while directing Washington to the NFC East title and a playoff berth thanks to a stunning midseason turnaround by the former fourth-round pick.
Over the final 10 games, Cousins completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 2,746 yards and 23 touchdowns with just three interceptions as the Redskins went 7-3. If Cousins could replicate that over a full season (admittedly a big “if”), that would put him squarely in the MVP running.
6. Doug Martin, running back, Buccaneers
Martin reentered the discussion as the NFL’s most explosive back last season after two injury-plagued years, rushing for 1,402 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry — both among the league’s best.
Those numbers were on par with Martin’s breakout 2012 rookie season, which shows what the former first-round pick can do when he’s healthy and able to play all 16 games.
The Buccaneers went just 6-10 with Martin putting up those big numbers last year, though, so anything short of a 2,000-yard season will require Tampa making the playoffs for Martin to be an MVP candidate.
7. Jameis Winston, quarterback, Buccaneers
Winston is probably a year away (at least) from being a legitimate MVP candidate, but the former No. 1 overall pick certainly showed enough flashes as a rookie last year to make a huge second-year leap plausible.
8. Antonio Brown, wide receiver, Steelers
No wide receiver has won the MVP since the award was first handed out in 1957, and that probably won’t change this year — even with the NFL becoming a pass-first league.
But Brown certainly merits consideration after one of the greatest three-year runs in NFL history. The former sixth-round pick has averaged an eye-popping 125 catches for 1,677 yards and 10 touchdowns since 2013, including a league-best 136 catches for 1,834 yards and 10 TDs last year.
9. Andy Dalton, quarterback, Bengals
Sure, he turned back into a pumpkin in the playoffs once again. And the Bengals are still the hopeless-in-the-postseason Bengals.
But Dalton was sneaky terrific in the regular season last year, completing a career-best 66.1 percent of his passes while compiling a 25:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio — also a personal best.
All of the playoff failures probably will keep Dalton out of the MVP race, but an improvement on those impressive 2015 numbers this year would make him a plausible candidate.
10. Thomas Rawls, running back, Seahawks
Rawls is admittedly the darkest of dark horses, but the pieces could be in place for the former undrafted free agent to have a huge season worthy of MVP talk.
With Marshawn Lynch gone and Seattle needing a power back in his mold, Rawls likely will be their workhorse if he is fully healed from a broken ankle. And when he is healthy, watch out: Rawls averaged a league-best 5.6 yards a carry on his 147 rushing attempts last year and nearly ran for 1,000 yards despite starting just seven games.