Yoenis Cespedes is having the season of his career, which is exactly what the Mets wanted when they re-signed him last January.
How to deal with Cespedes’ long-term status was something general manager Sandy Alderson would deal with when the time arose. That time is soon coming.
Five days after the World Series concludes, Cespedes can opt out from the three-year deal worth $75 million he received from the Mets last offseason. He will turn 31 next month, but there is no arguing with Cespedes’ .288/.358/.557 slash line with 30 homers and 79 RBIs in 117 games for the Mets this season that has placed him on the periphery of National League MVP conversation.
In a thin free-agent outfield market, in which the Orioles’ Mark Trumbo might be his closest comparison, Cespedes could command a haul.
Almost certainly, Cespedes will be in position to land a deal greater than the $47.5 million over two years he has remaining on his existing contract. The question is: How much will the Mets have to pay to retain him?
The Post polled several major league officials in search of an answer.
“He’s at or near the top of the scale as it sits,” said an official from a NL club. “However, I would say he’d probably be looking at something similar to what he has in hand – three years for $75 million. Maybe someone bumps it to four years for $100 million.”
An AL West talent evaluator had a similar take, noting that Cespedes has been injured this season, bothered by a quadriceps injury that forced him to the disabled list. Cespedes is continuing to play on a gimpy leg for the stretch run.
“He’s an impact-type player for the next three to five seasons, knowing there might be a few bumps along the way,” the AL West talent evaluator said. “I think three years for $75 million is accurate.”
Cespedes’ market was slow in developing last winter. The Nationals’ reported offer of $110 million over five years was the Mets’ biggest competition. But the Nationals’ offer was also heavy in deferred dollars, lowering the contract’s present-day value.
“I think he definitely opts out – and he gets four to five years at the same AAV [average annual value] as he got this year,” said a major league talent evaluator with NL East ties.
Based on that assessment, Cespedes would receive as much as $125 million. But the NL East talent evaluator believes Cespedes – who has stated his desire to remain in Flushing for the remainder of his career – is open to finding middle ground with the Mets.
“I think the middle ground is adding two more years and 50-plus million to the existing [$47.5] million,” the talent evaluator said. “I think the Mets would do four [years] for $100 million.”
But as one AL executive pointed out, it only takes one over-ambitious club to wreck the economic model. The executive mentioned the six-year, $132.75 million contract Justin Upton, who is two years younger than Cespedes, received from the Tigers last winter.
“And I thought Cespedes was a better player than Upton,” the AL executive said.
Which leads to this guesstimate by an AL general manager about Cespedes’ value if he hits the open market this offseason: $150 million over five years.
If that number is a true reflection of the market, the Mets might not have the stomach to retain the star outfielder. Alderson’s biggest layout as Mets general manager was the eight-year contract worth $138 million he gave David Wright before the 2013 season. Would the Mets really double their offer – in terms of guaranteed dollars – over last winter’s contract, when Cespedes is a year older?
They can only hope the following assessment is correct.
“Five years, $150 million [for Cespedes] is excessive, it seems,” a NL talent evaluator said.
Added the evaluator with NL East ties: “Thirty million per for five years seems a little high, but $25-27 [million] for four or five isn’t too far off.”