The Astros and Braves have been the early aggressors this offseason, and neither is done: Both are now concentrating on the high-end starting pitcher market (think: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Chris Archer) while the Astros also battle the Red Sox and Yankees to sign Carlos Beltran.
Meanwhile, most big-market teams are moving slowly for two main reasons: 1) They want to see the rules in a new collective bargaining agreement, particularly when it comes to luxury-tax thresholds and penalties; 2) Many see a free-agent market saturated with bats and wonder whether patience will allow them to get a relative bargain later in the offseason with hitters who could not find a home at their expected prices.
But even within that dynamic, executives from several teams cite the Nationals as a club expected to break the shackles and be aggressive. One American League executive said of the Nats: “They are really interesting. They are hovering on Sale. They are thinking big things. It would not shock me if they ended up with Sale. I think they have let teams know that [Trea] Turner is off the table, but that they are open on a lot of different things.”
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was the first to report the Nationals – who already sport Cy Young winner Max Scherzer plus Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark – are seeing whether it is possible to form a super-rotation with Sale. The Nats also want to add a righty bat, were in on Yoenis Cespedes last winter and are intrigued again. As one NL executive said: “They were on Cespedes last year, so why would that change now? They had interest in [Jose] Bautista during the summer. They are looking for a right-hand power bat.”
They also could play for one of the big closers, trying to retain Mark Melancon or going for Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, and they will have to address catcher with Wilson Ramos a free agent. The Nationals, according to the executives, also are aggressively trying to move lefty starter Gio Gonzalez, who is due $12 million in 2017 with a $12 million option for 2018.
Another AL executive said: “[Mike] Rizzo is pretty bold. He is going to do whatever he needs to do.”
Why the Nats are expected to act in a significant manner:
1. They have a narrowing window. Scherzer is great right now. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy can both be free agents after 2018 and Anthony Rendon after 2019.
2. The Braves and Phillies are still a year or two away from contending, and the Marlins just might not be able to get enough pitching to contend, especially after Jose Fernandez’s death. But the Mets should remain formidable, and the Nats want to keep their roster superior.
3. The Cubs and Dodgers join the Mets and perhaps the Giants as likely NL powerhouses. The Nats are in that fraternity. Just one will advance to the World Series.
4. The Nationals have won the NL East in three of the past five years, yet never won a Division Series. The NL executive said: “Oakland had success getting to the playoffs but then not winning, but they had a low payroll. Washington has had no success in the playoffs, but they have a high payroll. They have never won a round. They definitely have to make a move to advance.”
5. Owner Ted Lerner is 91 and – as the Tigers have tried to do with their aging owner, Mike Ilitch – the Nationals badly want to win in Lerner’s lifetime.