Rendering judgment on the NFL’s bubble teams through Week 12:
Dolphins
Miami has won six in a row, and Ryan Tannehill has played like a true franchise quarterback in that span by completing 68 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and just one interception. The Dolphins are vulnerable on the ground, giving up more than 100 yards in three of their past four games, and the schedule starting with Sunday’s visit to the 6-5 Ravens is difficult — three of Miami’s final five games are on the road. But the Dolphins are playing with incredible confidence under first-year coach Adam Gase and look like they will finally end their seven-year playoff drought.
Verdict: Contender
Buccaneers
Tampa has a very young roster that appears to be maturing rapidly, judging by back-to-back victories over the Chiefs and Seahawks. Those teams are a combined 15-4-1 this season, not counting games against the Bucs. Jameis Winston and a turnover-happy defense are leading the way, with Winston compiling a 104.1 passer rating (13 TDs and just three interceptions) the past six games, and Tampa recording a whopping 14 takeaways in that span. The Bucs’ schedule the rest of the way is brutal, though, including a Week 15 visit to the Cowboys and a Week 16 trip to the Saints. That probably will keep Tampa from ending its eight-year playoff drought.
Verdict: Pretender
Bills
Only one of Buffalo’s six victories is over a team with a winning record, and that was against the Tom Brady-less Patriots quarterbacked by rookie Jacoby Brissett. The Bills also have practically no passing game to speak of — they rank last in the league in attempts, yards and next to last in TDs — and gave up 183 rushing yards to the woeful Jaguars in a 28-21 victory last week. And they have forced just two turnovers the past five games. Three of Buffalo’s final five games are at home, which will be a big advantage if the weather is bad, but the opponents include the 9-2 Raiders, the 6-5 Steelers and the 7-4 Dolphins. Count on Buffalo’s league-worst playoff drought dating to 2000 to continue, putting Rex Ryan firmly on the hot seat.
Verdict: Pretender
Steelers
Pittsburgh, which plays host to the Giants this week, has bounced back from a four-game losing streak to post consecutive victories over the Browns and the Colts without Andrew Luck. The Steelers’ ground game is back on track, averaging 147 yards the past two games, and the secondary appears to be vastly improved. Pittsburgh also is forcing turnovers again, racking up eight in the past five games. Three of the Steelers’ final five games are at home, the AFC North is dreadful, and Pittsburgh always will be a threat as long as Ben Roethlisberger is upright.
Verdict: Contender
Ravens
Baltimore has rebounded from a four-game midseason swoon with a 3-1 stretch, thanks almost entirely to a second-ranked defense that is tough to throw against and even more difficult to run on. The offense remains a liability, though, with Joe Flacco compiling a mere 80.7 passer rating thanks to 11 TDs and 10 interceptions and a running game that ranks fifth worst in the NFL. The Ravens have a big game Sunday at home against the 7-4 Dolphins, but with a remaining schedule that includes visits to 9-2 New England and 6-5 Pittsburgh wrapped around what should be a difficult home date with the 5-5 Eagles, Baltimore looks headed for a second consecutive year without the playoffs. That would be the longest stretch of John Harbaugh’s career.
Verdict: Pretender
Redskins
Kirk Cousins is playing out of his mind — and into a huge payday — the past five weeks, turning in a 114.0 passer rating with 11 TDs and just one interception in that stretch. Unfortunately for Washington, all that’s gotten the Redskins is a 2-2-1 mark while the 10-1 Cowboys are controlling the NFC East with the 8-3 Giants not too far behind. A horrific defense that has allowed an average of 381 yards over the past four games continues to be Washington’s downfall. Three of the Redskins’ final five games are on the road, starting with Sunday’s visit to the Cardinals, but on the plus side, just one of those opponents — the Giants in Week 17 — is currently above .500. But the division looks too tough and the conference too crowded with similar teams for Washington to make it back to the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Verdict: Pretender