If you get a flat while driving along a remote back road, you don’t expect there to be a tire shop just around the corner in the middle of nowhere. You’re going to have to use a spare for a while.
It means your progress will be slower. It means you might not make it to your destination on time, if you make it at all. It could require you to make drastic alterations to your travel plans.
When the news came out Thursday that Patriots all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski is out the rest of the season with a ruptured disk in his back, that “pop” you heard was your fantasy team getting a flat. Now you’re on the side of the road, trying to figure out how you can still make the drive to your fantasy title.
First, you must find a spare, knowing what is on the waiver wire this time of the year is the equivalent of putting a bicycle tire on a four-wheel drive SUV. But that replacement alone won’t allow you to complete your journey. You also need to check you GPS to see if there is an alternative route.
That new route might be a dirt road with potholes. You might get behind a tractor that blocks your path. It’s risky, but with a little luck, maybe you still can get where you’re going.
What this means is taking risks with your fantasy roster. Grabbing the safest option — think Dennis Pitta or C.J. Fiedorowicz — isn’t going to get it done. Even Martellus Bennett has limited upside in a Patriots attack that has multiple weapons (he was a bust the one week with Tom Brady and no Gronk vs. the 49ers this season). You need high upside. We like Cameron Brate’s upcoming schedule, so he his production could spike in the coming weeks. Ladarius Green still has a low snap count, but that could rise down the stretch, allowing him to become a contributor in a prolific offense.
Our new path to victory can’t stop at tight end, however. We also need to maximize upside at other positions. That means bailing on other “safe spots” on our roster for riskier options who could bust out.
If somehow you still are riding Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning or Carson Palmer, bench or bail on them if you can find Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston or Colin Kaepernick.
Stop playing Thomas Rawls, Devontae Booker and Todd Gurley. If you get 10 points in standard leagues from those guys, you feel lucky. You need more than that. Try Kenneth Dixon, crossing your fingers the Ravens start phasing out Terrance West.
Get Tyler Boyd or Taylor Gabriel instead of Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, Sterling Shepard or Steve Smith Sr. Or if you want to stick with the Patriots, go with Malcolm Mitchell.
It is very possible this new route is blocked, that these maneuvers fail to produce a fantasy title. But you just lost Gronk. You’re not going to win a title going the speed limit. You have to push the gas pedal and just hope you don’t get a ticket along the way.
Big Weeks
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB, Jets
vs. Colts (FanDuel $7,000/DraftKings $7,100)
It might not make sense for the Jets to start him, but it makes sense for fantasy owners still streaming QBs. Cheap DFS play to boot.
Kenneth Dixon RB, Ravens
vs. Dolphins (FD $5,100/DK $3,700)
Not because the Dolphins are that easy to run against (14th stingiest to fantasy RBs), but because he is getting increased touches compared to backfield mate Terrance West. A DFS tourney play, and possible waiver savior in seasonal.
Doug Baldwin WR, Seahawks
vs. Panthers (FD $6,900/DK $6,700)
Carolina can’t defend the pass, but they’re stiff vs. the run. Expect the Seahawks to go to air while avenging a home loss and road playoff loss last season to the Panthers.
Josh Hill TE, Saints
vs. Lions (FD $4,500/DK $2,500)
Flip of a coin between Hill and Coby Fleener, but prefer Hill in DFS because of price. Either or both should post well against a Lions defense that is the worst defending fantasy tight ends.
Small Weaks
Cam Newton QB, Panthers
at Seahawks (FD $7,600/DK $6,600)
An erratic QB with a porous offensive line on the road against a strong defense that is getting key players back. Did we mention the Seahawks might want some payback for last season?
Robert Kelley RB, Redskins
at Cardinals (FD $6,100/DK $4,700)
Arizona has been a big disappointment overall this season, but the defense, by and large, has been solid, ranking second against RBs in standard and first in PPR.
Emmanuel Sanders WR, Broncos
at Jaguars (FD $6,400/DK $5,900)
This is not a great matchup — the Jaguars have given up just four touchdowns to WRs since a Week 5 bye, and two of those to red-hot QB Marcus Mariota. With Paxton Lynch starting, steer clear of Broncos WRs.
Tyler Eifert TE, Bengals
vs. Eagles (FD $6,800/DK $5,300)
Only the Cardinals have been stingier to opposing tight ends than Philadelphia. No A.J. Green doesn’t help, it just means the defense can devote more attention to Eifert.
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Files columnist Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Jordan Howard vs. LeSean McCoy
Drew: Howard — Obvious things are obvious. To wit, there are plenty of reasons why the Bears will lean heavily on Howard (just $7,400 on FanDuel) this week vs. the 49ers. First, don’t be fooled by Chicago QB Matt Barkley’s impressive showing last week against a terrible Titans pass defense, he is still Matt Barkley. Second, the 49ers’ run defense hasn’t been ***** as ***** bad recently, but last week the Dolphins were missing a gaggle of offensive linemen. Third, snowy weather could lead to more reliance on the ground game. That’s a hat trick of undeniable reasons. I dare you to respond!
Jarad: McCoy — Here’s my response (since, without it, there would be no Decision): McCoy vs. a suspect Raiders rush defense that has allowed 214 yards and three TDs over their past two games. Over his past five games, McCoy has run for 372 yards (522 over his past six) and six touchdowns. The Raiders are allowing the seventh most rushing yards (1,286), the third-most yards per carry, the fifth most rushing TDs and have allowed seven plays of 20 yards or more and three plays for 40 yards or more. McCoy has eight plays of 20-plus yards (three of 35 yards or more), two for TDs. This is where I drop the mic and walk off stage.
Last week: Drew 8 (Todd Gurley — 50 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards), Jarad 5 (Rashad Jennings — 55 rushing yards)
Season: Drew leads series, 8-4