NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. – The Indians were engaged on Carlos Beltran before he went to the Astros and Matt Holliday before he agreed with the Yankees.
But for Cleveland, $16 million was too much for Beltran and $13 million was too much for Holliday, especially because the Indians know what all teams pondering hitters recognize – the market is oversaturated with hitters.
Cleveland waited patiently last offseason in a market not quite as deep and got Mike Napoli for $7 million. The Indians’ strategy is similar this time. It is a game of slugger musical chairs, and there does not appear to be enough places for all the hitters to sit, meaning team-friendly deals are in the offing.
The Astros have added Beltran, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick. They possibly could take on one more, especially if they want to use someone such as George Springer as the key element in a trade for Chris Sale. The Yankees are looking for more of a supplementary bat.
The Blue Jays have signed Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce and plan to obtain another bat for lefty diversification, such as Mitch Moreland, which could all but bury the shot of a reunion with Edwin Encarnacion.
The Red Sox insist they will not spend big on a replacement for David Ortiz. The Mets made their two big offensive moves with Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker. The Dodgers want to retain third baseman Justin Turner and, if not, a second base trade for a Brian Dozier or Ian Kinsler is more probable. The Dodgers and Nationals are both looking at Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen.
There are three other factors hurting sluggers looking for new homes and expected dollars:
1. Sluggers such as Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler have qualifying offers attached to them. Thus, teams with the 20 best records would have to lose their first-round draft choice to sign them, something that will not be part of the punishment in future years via the new collective bargaining agreement.
With so many hitters available, teams might ask: Why not take another bat that does not have a lost pick attached to him and pay fewer dollars?
2. The new CBA made the punishment even harsher for going over the luxury tax, especially as repeat offenders. That has teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers counting future dollars in an even more cautious fashion. The Blue Jays, Giants and Nationals have an eye on long-term payrolls, too. The Tigers are in sell mode.
3. It is not just free agency, in which you have Bautista, Encarnacion, Napoli, Trumbo, Fowler, Desmond, Moreland, Turner, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Carlos Gomez, Ryan Howard, Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena among others. There also is a huge amount of sluggers available in trade, such as Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez and Justin Upton from the Tigers alone.
I believe in a healthy sport quality players eventually get paid a fair market value.
But let’s take the cases of the Blue Jays’ big two free agents: Encarnacion and Bautista. Encarnacion was the best hitter available in free agency, but if the Astros are done with bats, the Yankees are out after Holliday and the Red Sox are never playing, where does he get a contract for at least four years at $80 million-plus?
Bautista is 36. He just had an injury-marred season of decline for Toronto. His defense in right field has slipped noticeably. He has a strong personality that could turn off some organizations. To sign him, a team will lose a first- or second-round pick. When there are other alternatives, how big can his market be?
And this is why the Indians wait. They need to replace Napoli and Rajai Davis (a right-handed hitter who can play center), and it is possible they do so with Napoli and Davis if the markets for both come back to Cleveland.
The Indians are the defending AL champs. They expect healthy versions of Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar next year and a full season from Andrew Miller. They play in a division in which the Tigers, Royals and White Sox might be sellers, and the Twins are rebuilding.
They have every reason to wait to see what kind of deals come to them – and they are going to do that.