Week 17 can be one of the hardest of the season to handicap if you let it. It also can be one of the easiest if you throw away the records and stats and focus only on the motivation of each team.
Let’s start with Giants-Redskins. Washington gets in as an NFC wild card with a win, provided the prime-time Lions-Packers game doesn’t end in a tie.
The Giants are locked into the five seed. Ben McAdoo said he intends to play this game to win and offered no conditions. The rookie head coach has to know that under no circumstances can the team afford to get Eli Manning or Odell Beckham Jr. injured. Yes, Manning will be starting his 199th consecutive regular-season game, so maybe McAdoo thinks of him as unbreakable. But if the coach starts to sense any danger for Manning, or if OBJ vs. Josh Norman is getting out of hand, you can believe he will pull the plug.
The pick: Redskins, -7½.
Bills (-3¹/₂) over JETS: Anthony Lynn, a former Jets assistant, takes over for Rex Ryan as coach. His audition for the top job in Buffalo provides the only excitement here, and even with EJ Manuel in for Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, the Bills’ offense will be amped to help him succeed.
TITANS (-3) over Texans: Houston is locked in to the four seed in the AFC, though this isn’t so cut-and-dried because Bill O’Brien needs to get quarterback Tom Savage up to speed for the playoffs. The Titans blew their playoff shot, but will go all out in order to be 9-7, and Matt Cassel is good enough to get them there.
Ravens (PK) over BENGALS: Both teams are out of it, but the Ravens also have the carrot of a 9-7 season, while the Bengals’ disastrous campaign likely will end with their best offensive (A.J. Green) and defensive (Vontaze Burfict) players on the sidelines.
Jaguars (+4¹/₂) over COLTS: Like the Bills, the Jaguars have an interim coach trying to win the job in Doug Marrone. Last week, his Jaguars ruined the Titans’ season. The Colts can get to 8-8, but will they even care about that?
EAGLES (-4) over Cowboys: The Eagles will try to splatter the Cowboys all over The Linc. After seeing all-world offensive tackle Tyron Smith get dinged on Sunday night, there’s no way Jason Garrett (OK, Jerry Jones) takes chances with any of his meal tickets.
VIKINGS (-6½) over Bears: It’s been a terrible season for the Vikings, and the controversy over whether the secondary had its own game plan for covering Jordy Nelson was a bad look for coach Mike Zimmer. Figuring here the Vikings players respect Zimmer and will try to make things right.
BUCCANEERS (-4½) over Panthers: Tampa Bay’s loss last week to the Saints got the Giants in, but didn’t completely knock the Buccaneers out. They need a win at 1 p.m. and a ton of help later, but at least it’s something. Jameis Winston will miss Cameron Brate, but still has Mike Evans.
Browns (+6½) over STEELERS: With Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell ticketed to sit, the Browns will have a rare chance to beat their rivals — and they don’t seem to care if the No. 1 pick in the draft ends up in San Francisco as a result.
Saints (+7) over FALCONS: Atlanta would clinch the second seed in the NFC with a win, but the Saints spoiled things for the Buccaneers and are looking to do it again. NFL standings say Falcons are 10-5 and Saints 7-8, but the against the spread standings have both at 10-5, with the Saints having covered six of seven on the road.
DOLPHINS (+9½) over Patriots: New England needs a win or tie or an Oakland loss or tie to clinch the AFC’s top seed, but that only goes so far, and it might not reach this number. Bill Belichick also saw Derek Carr get hurt, so you wonder how many shots he will give Ndamukong Suh at Tom Brady.
Cardinals (-6½) over RAMS: The Cardinals have been out of it for several weeks, but that didn’t stop them from putting up a good win at Seattle. Looking for Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer to end a down year on an up note.
Chiefs (-5½) over CHARGERS: The season opened with the Chargers blowing a 27-10 lead in Kansas City, and things only got worse. Last week, they lost to the 0-14 Browns. Chiefs roll to force the Raiders to win in Denver to take the AFC West.
49ERS (+10) over Seahawks: Last time the 49ers won a game, they lost the next 13. And their best player, running back Carlos Hyde, is out. Seahawks would take second seed and get a bye with a win and an Atlanta loss, but that doesn’t make it worth giving up double-digits with a team that’s scored 15 points combined in its previous two road games.
Raiders (+1) over BRONCOS: Tough ask for Matt McGloin. But the Raiders’ other stars will step up, knowing that getting a top-two seed, a bye and at least one home game is their only chance to get to the Super Bowl without Derek Carr.
Packers (-3) over LIONS: Detroit had a streak of eight a row in which it gave up 20 or fewer points, but except for the Saints there were quite a few low-powered offenses in that string. The Cowboys put up 42 last week like it was nothing. It will be hard for Matthew Stafford and his broken finger to match points with Aaron Rodgers with the NFC North on the line.
Best Bets: Eagles, Bills, Packers.
Lock of the week: Eagles (Locks 6-10 in 2016).
Last week: 8-8 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.