The Rangers have jumped on board the Austrian Express and will ride it and Michael Grabner to the end of the line, but the looming question is how on earth management will be able to avoid exposing the team’s leading goal-scorer for claim in the expansion draft?
True enough, there are more than five months before general manager Jeff Gorton must submit his list on June 17. Dynamics change over the course of a season. There are trades. Unexpected things happen.
But it is not likely that anything more unexpected will develop than Grabner having emerged as the team’s top scoring threat. He has 18 goals heading into the bye week off his explosive two-goal performance in Columbus on Saturday that culminated with a jet-propelled breakaway winner with 16.5 seconds remaining in the Blueshirts’ stunning 5-4 victory.
The expansion draft is going to present a series of knotty problems for Gorton.
But none will be quite as challenging as figuring out how to protect the 29-year-old Grabner, whose July 1 signing to a two-year contract worth an annual cap hit of $1.65 million stands as one of this season’s great free-agency bargains.
A refresher course on the rules: 1) Each team is allowed to protect either eight skaters and one goaltender or seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender. 2) Players with no-move clauses must be protected unless they agree to waive that right. 3) First- and second-year pros and unsigned draft picks are exempt from claim. 4) Each team must expose one goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or a restricted free agent who has received his qualifying offer. 5) Each team must expose one defenseman under contract for 2017-18 who played at least 40 games this season or 70 combined last year and this. 6) Each team must expose two forwards who meet the same criteria.
As for the Rangers, who will protect 7+3+1.
Goalie: The Blueshirts are obligated to protect Henrik Lundqvist (no move). Thus, Antti Raanta will be exposed for claim by Vegas.
Defense: Ryan McDonagh, Nick Holden and Marc Staal (no move) will be protected. Brady Skjei is exempt.
Dan Girardi owns a no-move clause. Expect Gorton to either ask Girardi to waive the no-move or to buy out the Blueblood defenseman before the list is filed. If Girardi is amenable, he fills the exposure requirement. If the Rangers buy out Girardi before the draft, then Kevin Klein is the only current defenseman who fits the bill. Adam Clendening is a restricted free agent who would both need to sign an extension and play at least 31 of the final 40 games to qualify. Not likely.
Forwards: All right, here’s the mess. Rick Nash (no move), Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes will be protected. There are your seven, and Grabner is nowhere to be found. Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich are exempt.
Indeed, at the moment, Grabner is the only Ranger forward who fills the exposure requirement. Jesper Fast and Oscar Lindberg are pending restricted free agents. So is Brandon Pirri. So is Matt Puempel, who would need to play 18 games in order to qualify if signed before the draft. Of course, Gorton could sign any one of his pending Group II’s to extensions at any time (though we are told there are no ongoing talks with any) or acquire a compliant forward through trade.
But neither alternative addresses the Grabner protection headache. The Austrian Express’ 18 goals rank ninth in the NHL. He is tied with Auston Matthews for the NHL lead with 18 even-strength goals. He ranks second to Sidney Crosby in the NHL in G/60 (goals per 60 minutes) and leads in five-on-five G/60.
And, beyond the stats (yes, he has poor Corsi numbers, as does essentially every player on the 28-13-1 Rangers), he brings the indispensable element of disruptive speed on both sides of the puck the Blueshirts previously owned in Carl Hagelin. Grabner may not be as effective a playmaker or forechecker as the flashier Hagelin, but he has much better hands and is a far superior finisher, mostly of chances that his combination of a quick stick and quick thinking creates for himself.
Again. Things happen. Things change. But five months out, the Rangers either are going to have to trade one of the aforementioned seven projected protected forwards — and by June 17 — or they will be obligated to expose their current leading goal-scorer for claim in an expansion draft.
Good grief.