Who says you have to win right away with one-and-done players?
The Duke and Kentucky model isn’t for everyone. Just look at Florida State and Marquette, thriving the year after impact freshman made the jump to the NBA, a slap in the face at the notion one-and-dones won’t help in building a program.
Tenth-ranked Florida State, with its seven victories over top 25 RPI opponents, is in the running for a No. 1 seed, while Marquette looks like a tournament team for the first time since 2013, an offensive juggernaut — the Golden Eagles average a 84.6 points per game, 18th in the country — that has made strides defensively, and is coming off an impressive rout of Creighton.
For each program, last year was somewhat of a disappointment, an NIT berth for Florida State, no postseason tournament for Marquette, despite having two of the best freshmen in the nation — Henry Ellenson for the Golden Eagles, Malik Beasley for the Seminoles. Both were first-round picks — Ellenson selected 18th, Beasley 19th — after posting gaudy numbers their one year in college. And while neither is around anymore, their impact shouldn’t be forgotten.
They brought credibility to their respective programs, indirectly helping land impact freshmen this year, point guard Markus Howard for Marquette and forward Jonathan Isaac for Florida State. Coaches Leonard Hamilton (Florida State) and Steve Wojciechowski (Marquette) proved they were adept at handling elite young talents, making them better while still winning games.
The Seminoles had a three-win improvement with Beasley, and the Golden Eagles won seven more games, productive seasons that set both teams up for this season.
Both have taken the next step this season, the result of adding more talent, and the development of holdovers. Howard and Isaac are both in the running for freshman honors in their respective conferences. The 6-foot-10 Isaac is a likely lottery pick, averaging 13.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 38 percent from 3-point range. Howard, meanwhile, is shooting 50 percent from downtown, and has shown the poise of an upperclassman. Both teams have received big production from experienced players, too.
Beasley and Ellenson, however, shouldn’t be forgotten, either.
Western upswing
There is a reason for East Coast bias, at least lately. A West Coast team hasn’t reached the Final Four since UCLA in 2008, and Arizona was the last national champion from out West, way back in 1997. But this year, that could change, four western teams — Gonzaga, UCLA, Oregon and Arizona — all look capable of not only reaching the Final Four in Glendale, Ariz., but winning it all.
Sean Miller’s Wildcats are on the rise after their stunning win over UCLA at Pauley Pavilion on Saturday, aided by the return of sophomore guard Allonzo Trier after missing more than half the season for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
Oregon has won 16 games in a row, erasing a slow start. UCLA, the second highest scorer team in the country at 93.4 points per game, has dropped just two games, to Arizona and Oregon by a combined 13 points. And then there is Gonzaga, the only undefeated team in the country at 19-0, the kind of balanced, smart and sharp-shooting unit that will be a difficult out in March. They make it worthwhile for us East Coasters to lose sleep.
The City Lame
The city game is in tatters. The only locals with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA Tournament are LIU Brooklyn and Wagner College in the NEC. St. John’s remains in rebuilding mode, at least a year away from being relevant. Fordham has won three of the last four games in the Atlantic 10 and yet is still in eighth place, under .500 overall at 9-11. Manhattan is dead last in the MAAC, Columbia not a serious threat in the Ivy League. If you want to go out of the five boroughs, even Iona and Hofstra are having down seasons. The Gaels are the highest-rated New York school, at a whopping 103 in the RPI. At least there’s New Jersey.
Game of the Week:
No. 2 Kansas at No. 5 Kentucky, Saturday, 6:15 p.m.
Experience or potential? Kentucky’s fantastic freshmen guards or Kansas’s veteran backcourt? Saturday night in Lexington will feature arguably the two best guard tandems in the nation — the Wildcats’ De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk against Kansas’ Devonte’ Graham and Frank Mason III — in a potential Final Four preview featuring two top teams with a combined three losses. The winner sets itself up nicely for a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed.
Stock Watch
Up: Maryland
Less can often be more. For Maryland, that phrase applies. With far less talent, the Terrapins are enjoying a far better season than a year ago, tied with Wisconsin atop the Big Ten. Junior Melo Trimble is the team’s unquestioned leader, and the Terps have received production from impressive freshmen Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter and Justin Jackson, and gritty senior forward Damonte Dodd. Chemistry and defined roles is sometimes more important that raw skills.
Up: Tom Crean
The NCAA Tournament was starting to be in doubt for Indiana, and he lost OG Anunoby, one of his best players, to a season-ending knee injury. Instead of wilting, the Hoosiers responded like a true March contender, beating Penn State at the buzzer on James Blackmon’s 3-pointer, and knocking off Michigan State on Saturday. It’s not easy rebounding from a huge injury; just look at Creighton, which was hammered at home by Marquette in its first game without point guard Maurice Watson Jr. on Saturday.
Down: Syracuse
In the preseason, Jim Boeheim said, “this is the best team we’ve had in a long time.” He probably regrets that comment now, the Orange on pace to miss the NCAA Tournament for just the second time since 2008. Now I liked Syracuse this year — we ranked Boeheim’s team 16th in the preseason — but I was also concerned about the backcourt, believing Malachi Richardson, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije weren’t adequately replaced. Syracuse fans have learned that the hard way, helplessly watching Colorado State graduate transfer John Gillon and sophomore Frank Howard struggle immensely, neither shooting above 37 percent form the field.
Down: Atlantic 10
A few years ago, there was a debate of which conference had the brighter future, the Big East or the Atlantic 10. The argument seems unfathomable these days. The A-10, following a dreary performance during the non-conference season, may be looking at just two NCAA Tournament teams, if not one. Preseason top-25 team Rhode Island has failed to live up to expectations. VCU just lost at Fordham, and lacks a marquee victory. Dayton looks like the one lock, with the highest RPI in the conference at 26, while VCU and Rhode Island have a lot of work to do. Otherwise, there isn’t an at-large candidate in the league. Hey, there’s always the NIT.
Super 16
A prediction of the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (listed in order):
1: Villanova, Kentucky, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: UCLA, North Carolina, Florida State, Baylor
3: Oregon, Louisville, Arizona, Virginia
4: Creighton, Butler, Notre Dame, Wisconsin