If you can’t judge a book by its cover, you certainly cannot judge a fantasy baseball season on Opening Day. Yet when it comes to the closer position, often times, you need to pull that dust jacket off the book your reading and make sure you’re not being sold a bad bill of goods. That just might be the case with regard to some of the lower-echelon arms being touted as potential closer plays this season.
When the dust settled after multiple Opening Days, there were a total of six closers left sitting in their respective dugouts with their head in their hands. Two of them — Mark Melancon of the Giants and Seung-Hwan Oh of the Cardinals — are likely to see their managers brush off the poor performance and chalk it up to Opening Day nerves. Both are high-level arms who should have no problem putting the day behind them and focus their energy on the upcoming schedule. The other four? Not so much.
If after your draft, you thought Fernando Rodney and Jeanmar Gomez were going to be stable options for saves all year, then you haven’t been paying attention to the right fantasy experts. Rodney landed with the Diamondbacks in the offseason because they were the only club offering him a chance to close. Everyone else rightfully had him earmarked as a setup man. Arizona may not have any high-powered arms lurking behind him at the moment, but there’s only so much manager Chip Hale can take. Not to mention the Diamondbacks aren’t expected to hang onto him for the entire season, so look for him and that nasty 3.70 career ERA to land in someone else’s yard even before the trade deadline rolls around.
As for Gomez, while he actually earned the save for the Phillies on Monday, he did not look strong as he allowed two runs on two hits in his one inning. Manager Pete Mackanin endorsed him this spring despite last season’s September meltdown (17 earned runs in just eight innings), but it’s tough to think he will give him a long leash. Both Hector Neris and Joaquin Benoit have better stuff from a skills standpoint and have proven to be much more reliable shut-down options. It would be a major surprise to see Gomez as the closer after the calendar flips to May.
The other two each have their own interesting scenarios. Groundball specialist Sam Dyson has the job in Texas, but as a reliever who pitches to a lot of contact, he’s not going to hold onto it if he doesn’t get his sinker/slider working. In Monday’s outing, he only threw his fastball and changeup, and neither was particularly effective as the Indians teed off on him in the ninth. He was a mid-level option in most drafts and he could still return some dividends, but right-hander Matt Bush has much better swing-and-miss stuff. Even Jeremy Jeffress could be considered an option. Rangers manager Jeff Banister hasn’t said anything yet, but that might just be because it wasn’t officially a save opportunity. Still, taking the loss there isn’t going to sit well.
Finally, in Oakland, where Ryan Madson was supposed to be tabbed as the closer, manager Bob Melvin went in a different direction and used Madson in the eighth, leaving the ninth-inning work to offseason acquisition Santiago Casilla. Though the move probably surprised a number of casual fantasy players, most people understood that when Casilla was signed for two years and $11 million, he was getting closer money and could find himself in the mix for saves at some point. Madson did yeoman’s work last season as the team’s ninth-inning specialist, but management wasn’t exactly brimming with confidence. Melvin has proven to be a manager who likes to play the matchups, and though Madson may not technically be removed from the job, he doesn’t appear to be the default option.
Many fantasy pundits will dissuade you from investing heavily in a top closer because of the volatility at the position, but just a cursory glance at what went down on Opening Day should tell you otherwise. Melancon and Oh are in no danger after their first-appearance hiccup, but the lower-tier of closers who failed are already on the hot seat. Even worse for fantasy owners who heeded the advice and went the cheaper route, they’re going to be forced into chasing saves on the waiver wire all season long. You may not like having to use a pick as high as the fifth round to grab an Aroldis Chapman or a Kenley Jansen, but as you can see from the Opening Day fiascoes, you get what you pay for.