James Paxton was pitching well again Thursday night. You can make a case that no starter in the majors has outpitched him since July.
But then in the seventh inning against the Angels, his body language betrayed pain — a grimace, a roll of the shoulder — and Paxton was out of the game. The Mariners were hoping, yet again, that their ace — yes, he certainly has usurped Felix Hernandez — was not going to miss significant time because so much of their playoff hopes rests on his terrific left arm.
The key part of that previous sentence was the word “again.” Paxton has 20 starts in 2017, the same as last year. Those are his career highs. In style and delivery, Paxton has often been compared to Andy Pettitte. But Pettitte’s excellence was tied to his sturdiness. He made more than 20 starts 16 times, 30 or more 13 times, including at age 41, in his last season in 2013.
Last week, on a show on MLB Network, one of the subjects was if the excellent runs by Paxton and Cleveland’s Corey Kluber had made them Cy Young contenders with Boston’s Chris Sale. I found the topic mostly ridiculous since at the moment of the discussion Sale had 30 more innings than Kluber and 40 more than Paxton, both of whom already had spent 2017 time on the disabled list — and then Paxton indeed had to go on the DL again Friday with a strained left pectoral.
Then again, I am big for the most important abilities in sports being reli-ability, depend-ability and dur-ability. For without them, none of the other attributes means nearly as much.
No manager of Andy Pettitte ever had to wonder if he would post. Every manager of James Paxton must.
It is a topic to consider this year for the two big player awards in the AL because not only were Cy cases being made for Paxton and Kluber, but an MVP case now is being readied for Mike Trout, who missed 40 games — one-quarter of a season — with a torn left thumb ligament.
Can you really miss one-quarter of a season and win the MVP?
There is precedent. Not counting seasons shortened for labor-related reasons, four non-catcher position players have won an MVP with between 116-126 games played: Joe DiMaggio (1939), Mickey Mantle (1962), Willie Stargell (1979, tied with Keith Hernandez) and George Brett (1980) — hat tip here to the research of Lee Sinins of MLB Network. Trout would play 116 games this year if he does not miss another.
And the path to the award might be opening up for Trout. Houston’s Carlos Correa and George Springer are out with injuries. Aaron Judge is plummeting. The candidacies for Boston’s Mookie Betts and Trout’s Angels teammate Andrelton Simmons would require more love for defense than voters have previously shown. Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas’ strong homer/RBI totals would have stood up better a decade ago, when in the present his ordinary on-base percentage and defensive metrics may hurt.
Really, all that might stand in Trout’s way is Jose Altuve, who had played in 110 of Houston’s first 114 games.
Full disclosure, I do not have an AL MVP or AL Cy Young vote this year, but if I did, I would give extra points for durability. In an age when clubs are quick to use the DL, the ability of a player to stay on the field should matter more than ever.
Trout, even having missed a quarter of the season, might blow by Judge, Altuve and everyone else in the AL in Wins Above Replacement. But I always thought part of Trout’s MVP candidacy in the past four years in particular was never having to wonder about some phantom “replacement” level player to fill his spot, since Trout played the fourth-most games in the majors from 2013-16.
For example, I always thought Robinson Cano’s value was not only in his numbers, but who he kept off the field by playing so darn much. Just to get back to Sale for a moment: His value in making three to four more starts than Kluber/Paxton is that it keeps, say, Brian Johnson from having to make those outings. Sale had worked at least six innings in 21 of 23 starts and at least seven in 17, which means he is saving the bullpen for others. The bulk starts and innings have helped Boston win plenty of games, even those he does not start.
Once Trout went out this year, the Angels had to play Ben Revere and Eric Young Jr. Amazingly the Angels were 19-20 while Trout was disabled with a torn left thumb ligament. They were just 39-38 with him going into the weekend.
Trout won the MVP last year on a 74-88 club because he was the best player by far in the AL, and voters — who long sided with those on contending teams — reasoned Trout should not lose points because his team was bad around him. But what do we make now that for a quarter of a season, the Angels’ won-lost was essentially the same without Trout as it has been when he has played?
What would help Trout’s narrative is if his brilliant play helps carry such a flawed Angel team to at least September contention and even to just the wild-card game.
Still, players such as Altuve and Judge might incur deterioration in their stats just from playing so much, while Trout’s quarter-season absence makes him fresher for the stretch.
Should that be considered in the voting? In 2017, we are going to find out.