Welcome to the 2018 Jets preseason.
The Jets have not even played a game yet and it already feels like the 2017 season is over. The focus is on whom they can draft next spring and how the organization can rebuild. Part of that process is going to be identifying players on the current team worth keeping next year. That is what this season will be all about for the Jets’ decision-makers.
Still, there are 16 games to be played and they do count. So, the Jets players and coaches are ignoring the critics and approaching this season like any other. They are preparing to win, and believe they can shock some people.
It is hard to see that watching the Jets during training camp and in the preseason. The team’s six-year playoff drought feels like it definitely will reach seven years. Can coach Todd Bowles survive a disastrous season? Should general manager Mike Maccagnan be on the hot seat with Bowles? Those are going to be themes that linger over the 2017 Jets all season long.
After a quarterback competition in which no one really grabbed the job, Bowles named veteran Josh McCown as his starter. McCown, 38, is one of the few veterans on this roster, and the Jets are counting on him to keep this team together and to manage the games. The Jets’ only hope to win this year is to play great defense and not turn the ball over on offense. If they do that, they might win a few close games.
The defense has potential on paper. There are six first-round picks on the defense and Bowles’ specialty is that side of the ball. Rookie safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye will be Day 1 starters and give something for fans to feel hopeful about.
The schedule is soft at the beginning of the season. Outside of a Week 2 trip to Oakland, there are some games the Jets could win. The Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns are not world beaters. If the Jets are going to shock the world, they better get off to a quick start.
Offense
This could be a historic offense — and not in a good way.
It is hard to find any reasons for optimism with the Jets offense. They are devoid of playmakers, have a shaky offensive line and zero depth. Other than that …
McCown signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Jets in March as the team moved on from one journeyman quarterback — Ryan Fitzpatrick — to another in McCown. He beat out Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty this summer by default. The 15-year veteran is 2-20 in starts over the past three years with the Buccaneers and Browns. The plus for McCown is he does not throw a lot of interceptions. The Jets hope he can minimize turnovers and keep the offense moving.
Matt Forte must be looking around the offensive meeting room and wondering where everyone went. The 31-year-old is one of the only veteran players the Jets did not cut, and that is because his $4 million salary is guaranteed. Forte had moderate success in his first year with the Jets, rushing for 813 yards and seven touchdowns. Expect new offensive coordinator John Morton to use Forte as a receiver more than Chan Gailey did. The always reliable Bilal Powell is back to give the Jets a decent 1-2 running-back punch.
No position has changed more dramatically than wide receiver for the Jets. A year ago the trio of Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa looked like one of the best groups in the league. Now, Marshall is on the Giants, Decker is on the Titans and Enunwa is on injured reserve after season-ending neck surgery.
The Jets added veteran Jermaine Kearse last week in the Sheldon Richardson trade. He will help teach a very young group.
Robby Anderson was a nice discovery last year as an undrafted free agent. He had 42 catches for 587 yards and two touchdowns. But now he is being asked to play a bigger role. Is he up for it? Behind Anderson, there is very little. Jalin Marshall is suspended for the first four games. Charone Peake had a bad training camp. Rookies ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen had some good moments, but are they ready to play meaningful minutes?
Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins might be McCown’s best target, but he is suspended for the first two games of the season.
Up front, the Jets will have three new starters. Wes Johnson replaces Nick Mangold at center. Kelvin Beachum will be at left tackle and Brandon Shell will be at right. This is another weakness of the offense.
Grade: F
Defense
The Jets defense has the potential to be a decent unit. It is strong up front, has added new secondary pieces and has some talent. There are three problems — a lack of an outside pass rush, little depth at cornerback and they might be on the field for 50 minutes a game.
With how bad the Jets offense is expected to be, all of the pressure is going to fall on the defense to carry the team. This has all the makings of a team in which the defense resents the offense and the locker room splinters. Bowles must guard against that.
Leonard Williams emerged last year as a potential star, leading the team with seven sacks. There is no reason to think he won’t take the next step toward that this year. The defensive line underperformed last year, but Muhammad Wilkerson appears motivated and ready for a bounce-back season. Getting rid of Richardson hurts on the field, but will help in the locker room.
The arrival of Adams and Maye gives the secondary a new, younger look. Both rookies looked like they belonged during training camp. There will be some hiccups along the way, but they could be building blocks. Morris Claiborne replaces Darrelle Revis as the team’s top cornerback and should be an upgrade. Buster Skrine and Juston Burris will split duties on the other side.
The Jets dumped inside linebacker David Harris in June, getting rid of one of their steadiest, most-respected players. Demario Davis is back after a year in Cleveland and taking Harris’ old spot. Darron Lee will be alongside him, and needs to make a leap in Year 2 after an inconsistent rookie season.
There has not been a star pass rusher on the Jets since John Abraham left town more than a decade ago. The Jets spent the summer trying to find answers at outside linebacker, rotating through many players. Jordan Jenkins will be the strong-side linebacker, but he is more of an edge setter than a pass rusher. Josh Martin looks like the favorite to start on the other side. Martin was mainly a special-teams player last year.
Grade: C+
Special teams
Lachlan Edwards enters his second season. The Australian had an inconsistent rookie year, averaging 40.8 yards per punt. Edwards had a strong training camp, but had one 14-yard punt in a preseason game that shows he is still prone to lapses in focus.
The Jets searched high and low for a return man this offseason, but injuries and ineffectiveness left them still searching for an answer at the end of camp. It looks like Kalif Raymond, picked up off the waiver wire last weekend, will be the returner to start the season.
If you think the Jets’ roster is bad at the top, think about what it looks like at the bottom. Those are the guys playing special teams, so this could be another rough year for this group.
Grade: D
Coaching
This is a make-or-break season for Bowles after two straight seasons without making the playoffs.
Bowles took a major step backward in his second season. He did a poor job recognizing the deficiencies in his team and fixing them, such as replacing Revis or benching Fitzpatrick quicker. He also let a feud between Marshall and Richardson splinter his locker room.
That being said, you can’t forget what Bowles did in his first year, guiding the team to a 10-6 record and the brink of the playoffs. This is the season Bowles can show whether he was more of the first-year coach or the second-year coach. The problem is evaluating Bowles with this roster is almost unfair. He will be judged on how well he can keep this team together and develop players, not wins and losses.
Morton joins the Jets in his first stint as an offensive coordinator. He is a no-nonsense coach who runs a West Coast system. The challenge for Morton will be making something out of his talent-deficient roster.
Defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers is an extension of Bowles. He must work with Bowles to figure out how to manufacture a pass rush without a true edge rusher.
Bowles upgraded his staff this offseason, bringing in more experienced coaches. It might be too late to make a difference, though.
Grade: C-
Two-minute drill
Most important offensive player: It would be easy to name the quarterback here, but let’s get creative. Robby Anderson could have a huge influence over how good this offense can be. He is being asked to jump from role player to star in his second year. How he develops will have a great effect on what whoever is at quarterback can do.
Most important defensive player: Muhammad Wilkerson had a disappointing 2016 season after coming off leg surgery. Now, Wilkerson is healthy and says he wants to dominate again. The Jets need to get to the quarterback, and Wilkerson returning to his 2015 (12 sacks) form would be a big help. The Jets could move on from Wilkerson this offseason if he does not perform, so this is like a contract year.
Rookie to watch: Marcus Maye gets second billing to Jamal Adams, but Maye was one of the stars of training camp. The second-round pick out of Florida has a nose for the ball and can deliver big hits. He and Adams could form the backbone of the Jets defense for years to come.
Star on the rise: The Jets were thrilled when Jamal Adams was sitting there at No. 6 for them to draft in April. The do-everything safety from LSU has looked the part in training camp. With little to cheer about this season, Jets fans will embrace Adams. He could emerge as the defense’s leader as a rookie.
Biggest coaching decision: Christian Hackenberg has to start at quarterback at some point this season. The Jets need to find out if the 2016 second-round pick can play at all before drafting a quarterback early in the 2018 draft. When to pull the plug on McCown is Bowles’ hardest decision this year. If McCown bombs or gets hurt, the decision will be made for Bowles. But what if McCown plays well? When do you move on to Hackenberg?
Don’t be surprised if: We see all three quarterbacks this season. Most of the focus in training camp was on McCown and Hackenberg, but Bryce Petty played well enough to warrant another shot. There could be a scenario where Hackenberg takes over at midseason, struggles and then Petty gets another shot.
Sure to make fans grumble: If the Jets win too many games this year, Jets fans will be upset. You read that right. There is a decent number of fans rooting for the Jets to lose this season in order to get the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. The worst-case scenario for them is a 6-10 finish. So, if the Jets win a few games early, the grumbling will begin.
Can’t miss ’em
Week 1 at Bills: The Jets enter this game 0-0. If they are going to surprise people, this would be a good place to start. The Bills are beginning their own rebuild under coach Sean McDermott. They could be shaky with a new system.
Week 5 at Browns: This could be a key battle for draft position. The Browns look like they have improved, but they are still one of the worst teams in football. If the Jets lose this one, they could be on the inside track for the top pick.
Week 17 at Patriots: The Jets might be locked into their draft position by the season finale, but what if this game means the difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 pick? It would be so Jets if the Patriots are resting starters and the Jets somehow win this game, screwing up their chance at the top pick.
Prediction: 2-14
Settle in for a long season, Jets fans. It’s hard to see how this offense is going to have any success. It has no weapons and little hope. The good news is that better days should be ahead if a terrible season leads to the No. 1 pick in 2018 and Sam Darnold, Josh Allen or Josh Rosen.