If you think of the Jets as a house, right now they have been torn down all the way to just a frame standing. Now, comes the tricky part — rebuilding the house with all new amenities.
We all know where the Jets are after a complete offseason overhaul that saw them dump nearly every veteran from last year’s team. This season should be a bottoming out for the franchise — a season with very few wins and nearly no hope.
But how does the franchise pick itself back up? The Post talked to several former front-office executives about what it will take for the Jets to rebuild and also looked at the history of bad teams in the last 20 years.
“There is nothing they can do to change the immediate future,” said Joe Banner, who oversaw rebuilding efforts with the Eagles and Browns. “What they can do now is try to change what the future is likely to be a year from now, two and three, which is really the focus. They should have a two-, three-year plan of how to get the team in a much better place.”
Banner praised the Jets for acknowledging where they are through their recent moves. By shedding overpriced veterans and trading Sheldon Richardson for a second-round draft pick last week, the Jets and owner Woody Johnson seem to have realized they need to feel some pain this year in order for long-term gain.
“If you’re truly in a teardown, let’s get down to the studs and rebuild it, you’ve got to maximize [salary-cap space and draft picks] in every way you can and not worry about anything else,” Banner said. “The difference between winning two or three games or four games or one game is irrelevant at this point. You just have to accept that anything that has value to somebody else and maximizes either your draft picks or your future cap room, you have to convert into those assets.”
The easy answer for teams in the Jets’ situation is to believe they can land a franchise quarterback in the draft and that will solve every issue. Just ask the Raiders (JaMarcus Russell), Bengals (Akili Smith) or the Lions (Joey Harrington) about that being a panacea.
“I think the franchise quarterback is probably the most elusive piece of the puzzle,” said former Browns general manager Phil Savage. “That’s why it gets so much attention. You feel like if you hit on the quarterback, you ought to be able to figure out the rest. That’s not always the case. Miami had Dan Marino and they went to one Super Bowl and lost. In theory, it should be easier, but it’s not always the case. You have to build your defense. You have to build your offensive line and skill players, on down the line.”
Over the past 20 years, there have been 44 teams that have finished 3-13 or worse — the neighborhood the Jets figure to be in. Sixteen of those teams drafted a quarterback the following year in the first or second round. In some cases (Peyton Manning with the Colts), it worked. But there are plenty of other examples where it did not.
While some teams made the playoffs shortly after bottoming out, others have been roaming in the NFL wilderness. Teams such as the Browns, Bills and Jaguars seem to be in a perpetual rebuild with a new plan every few years.
“Ownership has to have patience here, absolutely,” said former Redskins and Texans GM Charley Casserly, who recommended Mike Maccagnan and Todd Bowles for the jobs with the Jets. “This is going to take time.”
Patience is hard to find in NFL owners. While an owner might be on board with a youth movement in February and March, the reality of an empty stadium and a dismal team in November and December can change those feelings.
The Jets are in an interesting situation because typically these rebuilds begin in the first year on the job for a new GM and coach. Maccagnan and Bowles are each in their third year.
“I don’t remember seeing one that was successful that wasn’t done in Year 1 of bringing in the new people,” Banner said. “It’s one thing if the Browns go 1-15 in the first year of a three- or four-year plan. It actually helps them get a high pick. It doesn’t really matter otherwise. If you’re going 1-15 or whatever it’s going to be in Year 3 of an administration, you have to really scrutinize the people and how they are making decisions.”
The GM usually gets more slack than the coach in a rebuild. Of those 44 teams that finished 3-13 or worse, 27 head coaches were fired. Of the 17 who survived, 12 were entering their second season, five were entering their third. No coach finishing his third season or later survived one of those years.
It would be understandable if Bowles was not thrilled with this long-term plan that is sacrificing the short-term, though he has not expressed that at all.
“If you do it in Year 1, everybody assumes, even though there are a couple of exceptions, you’re going to get at least Year 2 and probably Year 3,” Banner said. “The idea of putting in a long-term plan, you can usually sell internally as long as you have the right people. Trying to sell that in Year 3 when you have people getting evaluated and scrutinized and wanting to keep their jobs, is very hard.”
Casserly, who obviously has a bias toward Maccagnan and Bowles, argued that them being in Year 3 is an advantage. He pointed to 2015 when the Jets went 10-6. Maccagnan won executive of the year that season and Bowles got the most out of the team.
“They both came in the first year and I thought proved something,” Casserly said. “Mike made a number of deals. He was executive of the year. They were good, smart deals and he didn’t mortgage the franchise when he did it. Todd proved that he could manage the team, get them to 10 wins with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That’s coach of the year, really. Ryan Fitzpatrick had never had a season like that. Given those circumstances, these guys, to me, have proven something. It’s not like you’re starting with a new staff and it’s ‘Can this guy coach?’ or ‘Can this guy pick players?’ I think they’ve shown they can manage.”
The feeling among the former GMs was the key for the Jets will be not just landing that franchise quarterback, but also building up the offensive line and finding an outside pass-rusher. Those are the cornerstones to a solid franchise.
The Jets should have more than $80 million in salary-cap space next year and they now have two second-round picks to go with their first-rounder, which is expected to be in the top five if not the top three. The Jets should be able to improve in 2018, but it could be years until the Jets contend again.
“The pressure is people want you to do it in a year,” Savage said. “They’re probably looking at several years in reality. It takes a lot of patience. It’s going to take a lot of backbone, a lot of guts, so to speak, to work through most likely some difficult afternoons this fall. It’s not an enjoyable thing to go through a losing season and then one where the expectations are very low.”