Trust is earned over time. When certain people act certain ways frequently enough, you come to expect it. You begin to trust they will continue to act in that certain manner. And the same can be said of distrust.
Our trust/distrust in Eagles coach Doug Pederson began last season. That is when we learned, week after week, we could trust him to make sure his running backs were not trustworthy fantasy options.
Between Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood and a few others, none could be trusted to produce on a given week. Pederson essentially used all of them too much, yet none of them enough.
So already we have a predisposition of distrust toward Pederson and his backfield entering this season. They brought in LeGarrette Blount, and he has gotten the lion’s share of carries, yet he has been on the field for just 33.28 percent of offensive snaps. Last season, Sproles was the leading RB in terms of playing time with 45 percent of snaps.
So what happens now, with the influx of Jay Ajayi? Well, we have just one week of data with Ajayi. He was on the field for 17 plays, or 25 percent of the time. Blount had one fewer snap, his 16 accounting for 23 percent of snaps. Corey Clement, on the other hand, had 28 snaps, or 41 percent.
What does all this mean? First, let’s assume the Clement usage was an anomaly, since it far exceeded his season average of 18.95 percent. Using a 2016 moniker for our distrust of Pederson, let’s call this a Sproles Game — referring to seemingly random weeks when Pederson would alter his game plan to use a different running back.
Let’s also assume this past week was minimal usage for Ajayi. He will see a larger percentage of snaps henceforth. As a benchmark for Ajayi, let’s use Mathews’ 2016 season. Mathews played 25.38 percent of snaps, but also played just 13 games. Prorate his use over all 16, and you get 31.24 percent of snaps.
Let’s say Ajayi’s touches per snap hover in the 58 percent range, like 2016 Mathews. That would give Ajayi about 15 touches per game (let’s round it out to 12 carries and three receptions per game) — which, based on his career averages, would yield roughly an average of 73 total yards per game. He has a ridiculously low career touchdown rate of one score per 50.3 touches. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and average that with the 2017 overall TD rate average (21.97), and that would give him 2.3 TDs the rest of the way.
So you add it all up, and our projection for Ajayi is 11.59 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues the rest of the way. For reference, that would put him in the C.J. Anderson, Javorius Allen realm (right on the border of the top 20 RBs).
And that’s if you trust Pederson to continue to be untrustworthy with his running backs.
On the Way Up
Jared Goff QB, Rams
Carved up the Giants for 300-plus yards and four touchdowns. Gets a generous Texans bunch this week. Nice filler option if you have a bye-week QB.
Matt Forte RB, Jets
Got a healthier share of the workload in Week 9 and delivered. Has a plus matchup this week against the Buccaneers.
Marquise Goodwin WR, 49ers
Expecting Jimmy Garoppolo to take over eventually — we’re going to guess Week 12 following a bye — at which point Goodwin could see a nice late-season bump. Stash now if you can.
Greg Olsen TE, Panthers
He is eligible to return Week 12. Check your waivers to see if he got dropped. Grab him now if possible, because it will get more difficult later.
On the Way Down
Drew Brees QB, Saints
Has thrown just three TDs total over the past three games — two of which were at home. He ranks at back of top 10 among QBs. No longer earns unbenchable status.
DeMarco Murray RB, Titans
Nursing a knee injury and expected to miss some practice time. Derrick Henry hasn’t forced the issue with mediocre play, but banged up Murray could pave way for extra Henry carries this week.
Julio Jones WR, Falcons
Dropped two touchdowns on Sunday. At some point you have to wonder if his TD struggles have gotten into his head.
Josh Gordon WR, Browns
Could make return by Week 13. Don’t bother. By the time he learns new offense and syncs up with whoever is QB, season is over.