SAINTS (-6 ½ / Over 48) over Panthers: Here we go again with the third meeting between these NFC South divisional playmates. Riding the eternal division teeter-totter, the Saints are on the upswing, with the Falcons and Panthers looking to claw back to recent heights. With the rocket fuel which was the 2017 New Orleans draft propelling the Saints up, up and away (RB Alvin Kamara, CB Marshon Lattimore — who’s destroyed the Panthers as much as anyone, free safety Marcus Williams and offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, thanks), a program notorious for drafting misfires has made up a ton of ground in a hurry.
Like so many of them, coach Sean Payton is a much better when he’s provided the material to sustain a serious run. It’s gratifying to see a precision artist like Drew Brees look to capitalize on a magical year (72 percent completion percentage) while still young enough to make something of it (turning 39 on Jan. 15).
The fact the Saints have recently covered against the Panthers with regularity is significant … especially in divisional play, where it’s a constant scissor/paper/rock game, and the Saints continue to get the best of it — all the more so, now, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara generating viable ground distractions to facilitate Brees’ maximum exploitation of the Saints’ passing attack.
Carolina is slated to have tight end Greg Olsen available for this. He’s long been one of the best at the position, and has to help, but not sold it’s anything but too little, too late. The defense currently is hard-pressed to hold foes below the 20s, and on this fast track, it would just take one or two errant Cam Newton passes channeled into the hands of rookie Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore to make this too tall a hill to climb for this visitor.
Though defensive end Trey Hendrickson is expected back for the Saints, this favorite have not been the luckiest bunch this year in terms of season-ending injuries, which have affected depth. But even with seasonal double-revenge working for Cam and Co., Newton figures to need to be on his very best behavior to get past this foe in the loud, raucous Dome.
Saints 31-21
Bills (+8 ½ / Under 39¹/₂) over JAGUARS: This looms a dangerous, tricky handicap — given the broad historical eccentricities of Jaguars QB Blake Bortles considered in tandem with the Bills’ initial postseason appearance this century. Bills are cursed with the sprained-ankle issues to bellcow running back LeSean McCoy, who looms as a game-time decision, though expect he’ll give it his top shot. Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy are on call if necessary.
The potential for Buffalo making a game of this largely lay with the Bills’ ability to provoke Bortles and his associates into turnovers. Blessed early within this revival season for the Jaguars franchise with the swift emergence of top-shelf RB Leonard Fournette, this favorite flushed some mediocre football out of its system in their two-game road trip visiting the 49ers and Titans, and are expected to welcome wideout Marqise Lee back after a sprained ankle of his own. For the sake of competitiveness, you’d hope the Bills WR Kelvin Benjamin comes fit enough to make a contribution, though his knee likely needs more time than circumstances will currently permit.
Blessed with a defense he no longer has to consider suing for non-support, Bortles is a most interesting on-field operative. After gift-wrapping 51 interceptions in his past three seasons, Bortles and his vastly-improved defense advanced hand-in-hand under the direction of first-year coach Doug Marrone (who led the Bills for a stretch through 2014, before finalizing a satisfactory departure for himself) — though five picks in the past two weeks have tarnished Bortles’ glossier results, and his long-term mediocre history without this caliber of defensive support lingers.
Excepting their bad loss at New England, Buffalo has responded well when sent off as appreciable underdogs against quality teams, winning at Atlanta and Kansas City — both playoff teams. If Bortles plays clean and the Jaguars defense contains Taylor, the home side should advance, though this price isn’t cheap, and that may well come into play.
Jaguars 21-16
Last week: 10-6
Regular season: 116-106-14
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @rich_witt1