It seems the allure of a House chairmanship just isn’t what it used to be.
Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) this week became the latest committee chief to bid farewell to Congress, a blow to GOP morale if not its political fortunes. The departure, while sudden, doesn’t come totally out of the blue. Gowdy has long expressed a desire to return home to South Carolina, even flirting with retirement in the past; a celebrated prosecutor, his talents are wasted at the helm of a panel with little appetite for aggressive oversight of his own party.
And it’s fair to say being a member of Congress in the current political moment — much less the indignity of campaigning to stay there — doesn’t sound particularly appealing. Yet it’s increasingly hard to dismiss what is now a record number of House GOP retirements — a figure that represents not only a restless rank and file, but an emerging exodus of powerful committee chairmen.
Whatever Gowdy’s decision says about the state of the Republican majority, it can’t be anything good.
Gowdy has long been considered a rising star within the GOP. Upon the resignation of Speaker John Boehner in 2015, the congressman’s name was touted both as a leading candidate for the presumptive majority-leader vacancy and a conservative alternative for the top job.
While he demurred, citing his ongoing work leading the Benghazi committee, Gowdy’s stock continued to rise, culminating in his role as Hillary Clinton’s chief inquisitor in the investigation that turned up the former secretary of state’s infamous private email server.
There is no denying that the oversight perch is less fun under single-party rule. While previous past chairman (and fellow retiree) Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) made his name holding the Obama administration to account, Gowdy’s immediate predecessor Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) abruptly retired just a few months into 2017, spurning Congress for the greener pastures of cable TV.
Gowdy’s elevation was cheered by Republicans, and might have otherwise set him up for the House Judiciary Committee gavel next Congress, but the role of his committee has been relegated to that of a mere bystander as the real battles play out elsewhere. What Gowdy’s chairmanship might look like unencumbered by electoral politics will be interesting to see.
It’s worth noting that this move comes amid political green shoots for Republicans. After months of increasingly ugly polls, the generic-ballot deficit has stabilized in the mid-single digits, a survivable range for the GOP. Presidential approval, perhaps the best historical barometer for midterm performance, has crept above the 40 percent political “Mendoza” line for the longest period since last September.
And Republicans’ signature legislative achievement has risen in popularity as Americans see the impact of tax cuts in the news and in their paychecks.
Yet the GOP jailbreak continues. The House casualty list stands at 41 and counting.
And whether it’s the breakdown of regular order, the paralytic legislative process, consolidation of power within the leadership ranks or simply a calculated hedge against a rising Democratic tide, congressional chairmen are leaving the People’s House in droves.
So one can easily rationalize Gowdy’s decision, as one could each of the nine outgoing committee chairmen that came before him. Many, including Gowdy, leave behind safe seats, and weren’t responding to direct political threats. Now-former Budget Chairman Diane Black (R-Tenn.) is actually seeking a statewide promotion. And among those who were vulnerable, like Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce, most were term-limited by strict House GOP rules.
In the case of Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen — himself both endangered and unlimited — the gavel may have been stripped even if he had returned. Which is to say each member exits under their own circumstances.
But, while Gowdy’s retirement won’t cost Republicans a seat, it represents the most visible indicator yet that as House control hangs in the balance, those with the most vested interest in holding serve are choosing flight over fight.
Liam Donovan is a former GOP staffer and principal at Bracewell LLP in Washington, DC.