MINNEAPOLIS — The Eagles arrive at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday looking for their first NFL title since 1960. The Patriots arrive looking for their first since … last year.
Yep, this Super Bowl matchup is between the team that is always here and the team that rarely is. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have become as associated with early February as Punxsutawney Phil.
The Patriots had the No. 1 offense in football this year with Brady and Rob Gronkowski leading the way. The Eagles counter with the fourth-ranked defense, led by Fletcher Cox on the defensive line. On the other side, backup quarterback Nick Foles is the story for the Eagles. Can he be the 2018 version of Jeff Hostetler and lead his team to a Lombardi Trophy?
This Patriots defense is not as formidable as some past groups. They were 29th in total defense this season, but they have played better in the playoffs.
Here are the matchups:
Patriots pass offense vs. Eagles pass defense
This is all about No. 12. Tom Brady can make even the best defenses look silly. Brady put together another spectacular year, even at age 40, throwing 32 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions. Watch for him to get the ball out of his hands fast early in the game to keep the Eagles’ defense off balance.
His favorite target is Rob Gronkowski, who is fully recovered from a concussion suffered two weeks ago. Gronkowski had 69 catches for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns in the regular season. The Eagles will have to attack him with multiple people. No one person ever stops Gronkowski. If the Eagles do manage to quiet him, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan or Danny Amendola could emerge as Brady’s go-to guy. Eagles cornerbacks Jalen Mills, Ronald Darby and Patrick Robinson have a tough assignment.
The key against Brady is pressure. The Giants established this blueprint in their two Super Bowl wins. If Fletcher Cox can push the pocket from the inside, the Eagles could have success. On the outside, the Eagles have a deep rotation with Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry and Derek Barnett.
Eagles linebackers Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks will be tested by Patriots running backs Dion Lewis and James White coming out of the backfield.
Edge: Patriots
Patriots run offense vs. Eagles run defense
The Eagles have the No. 1 rush defense in football. With Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan clogging up the middle, opponents managed just 79.2 yards rushing per game in the regular season. In the NFC Championship, the Vikings had 27 rushing yards on their opening drive and then just 43 the rest of the night.
The Eagles are stout up front and they also get good run support from safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is one of the best in football and will have a solid plan against the Patriots.
Dion Lewis led the Patriots with 896 rushing yards and six touchdowns this season. He and James White, last year’s Super Bowl hero, give the Patriots a nice 1-2 punch and allow Josh McDaniels to ride the hot hand.
Edge: Eagles
Eagles pass offense vs. Patriots run defense
The Patriots finished 30th in the NFL in pass defense this year, allowing 251.2 yards per game through the air. But that is a little misleading because that number was inflated by some poor early season performances. They have played better lately.
Nick Foles was fantastic two weeks ago against the Vikings, throwing for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Can he duplicate that in the Super Bowl?
Foles has some good targets with Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith and tight end Zach Ertz.
The Patriots added Stephon Gilmore in free agency last season and he had a strong game against the Jaguars two weeks ago. He will probably be on Jeffery in this game with Malcolm Butler on the other side. Safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are a formidable duo. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia might have to get creative to create a pass rush.
Edge: Patriots
Eagles run offense vs. Patriots run defense
This could be where the Eagles have the biggest advantage. They have a tough offensive line and love to use run-pass option plays that force the defense to choose whether they will crash to stop the rush or stay back against the pass.
Foles is very good at using the run-pass option and Jay Ajayi can give teams headaches. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in seven games with the Eagles and forms a nice tandem with LeGarrette Blount, the former Patriot.
The Patriots were 20th in the NFL against the run. Linebackers Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy and Marquis Flowers will have the challenge of slowing down the Philadelphia run game.
Edge: Eagles
Special teams
The only thing Bill Belichick loves more than hoodies is special teams. Belichick will go on and on when asked about punting or kick coverage. That also means the Patriots spend a lot of time on it and are very good at it. They have not allowed a kick or punt return longer than 34 yards this season. Matthew Slater is probably the best kick coverage man in the sport. Punter Ryan Allen is a master at pinning opponents inside their 10. Stephen Gostkowski went 37-of-40 on field goals this season.
Eagles rookie kicker Jake Elliott has been a find. He made five field goals of 50 yards or more this year. Doug Pederson is a gambler, so watch for him to take a chance with a fake or some other special teams play to catch New England off guard.
Edge: Patriots
Coaching
Patriots coach Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in the history of football. It is hard for anyone to measure up on the opposite sideline. This is the final game with the Patriots for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who will be named the head coaches of the Colts and Lions, respectively, this week.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson has done a great job of holding his team together even after starting quarterback Carson Wentz tore his ACL. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz could be the star of this game if he finds a way to slow down Brady.
Edge: Patriots
Intangibles
The experience edge could be a huge factor in this one for the Patriots. Being at the Super Bowl is nothing new for them. Most of the Eagles are here for the first time. The Eagles must stay aggressive in this game. Too often teams take a lead on the Patriots and then start looking at the clock, hoping for the game to end, instead of keeping their foot on the gas.
Brady also brings some intangibles. He has seen every type of defense in his career and always seems to have the answers. That will be the biggest advantage for New England.
Edge: Patriots