Conference tournaments are here, which means everything that came before no longer matters for the area’s mid-major programs. A disappointing regular season can be rendered moot with a breakthrough performance, or a sensational year can be wasted with one hiccup.
It’s what makes the time of year so unique, and also so nerve-wracking. Just a few games can define more than four months.
Below is The Post’s preview as the conference tournaments get underway this week:
NEC
Wednesday, Saturday, Tuesday at higher seed
Wagner
Record: 21-8, 14-4 NEC
Coach: Bashir Mason (Sixth season, 108-77)
RPI/KenPom ratings: 104/162
Regular-season recap: The Seahawks started the season 7-1 and never slowed down, averaging their most points (76) in 15 years, while ranking 23rd in the nation in field-goal percentage defense (40.7). Even with only one returning starter, Wagner claimed its second NEC regular-season title in the past three years, following a 13-year gap between championships.
Best win: 91-61 at St. Francis (Pa.), Jan. 26
Player to watch: Senior guard JoJo Cooper’s incredible leap is the reason Wagner won 20-plus games for just the fifth time since 1979. Cooper led the conference in assists (6.2), and is one of only two players in the nation to average at least 14 points, 6.0 assists and 5.4 rebounds.
Last NCAA appearance: 2003
Tournament odds: 2-1
Wagner can win it if: Perfection is attainable. The Seahawks are undefeated at home (14-0) and have home-court advantage throughout the conference tournament, but suffered a title-game loss in Staten Island to Fairleigh Dickinson two years ago.
Next: Top-seeded Wagner hosts eighth-seeded Central Connecticut in the quarterfinals on Wednesday (7 p.m.).
LIU Brooklyn
Record: 15-16, 10-8 NEC
Coach: Derek Kellogg (First season, 15-16)
RPI/KenPom: 251/269
Regular-season recap: Following the unexpected firing of Jack Perri, the drawn-out process to find a new coach and the departure of NEC Player of the Year Jerome Frink, the Blackbirds exceeded expectations, and got stronger as the season went on, winning nine of their final 14 games.
Best win: 69-67 vs. Wagner (Jan. 13)
Player to watch: Joel Hernandez suffered a season-ending injury in the first game last season, but returned better than ever. The fifth-year senior guard was the second-leading scorer in the conference (20.2), while averaging six rebounds, and improving his 3-point shooting by 10 percentage points (.373).
Last NCAA appearance: 2013
Tournament odds: 10-1
LIU can win it if: Defense isn’t its death. While the Blackbirds are the second-highest scoring offense in the league (77.8), they surrender the second-most points (77.9), and also have a -2.3 turnover margin.
Next: Fourth-seeded LIU hosts fifth-seeded St. Francis Brooklyn in the quarterfinals on Wednesday (7 p.m.).
St. Francis Brooklyn
Record: 13-17, 10-8 NEC
Coach: Glenn Braica (Eighth season, 115-135)
RPI/KenPom: 272/296
Regular-season recap: Picked last in the NEC, that prediction looked accurate early, as St. Francis got off to a 2-8 start. But when league play began, Braica’s team shed those losing ways, riding the dynamic play of guards Glenn Sanabria, Rasheem Dunn and Jalen Jordan to a surprising fifth-place finish.
Best win: 82-75 vs. Wagner (Dec. 31)
Player to watch: The high school teammate of St. John’s star Shamorie Ponds, Dunn is the Terriers’ engine, a dynamic slashing sophomore who averaged team-highs of 15.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.
Last NCAA appearance: None
Tournament odds: 25-1
St. Francis Brooklyn can win it if: Dunn, Sanabria and Jordan are all on for three games, and the Terriers’ defense, their biggest weakness, isn’t too leaky.
Next: Fifth-seeded St. Francis Brooklyn visits fourth-seeded LIU Brooklyn in the quarterfinals Wednesday (7 p.m.)
Fairleigh Dickinson
Record: 12-17, 9-9 NEC
Coach: Greg Herenda (Fifth season, 59-93)
RPI/KenPom: 267/288
Regular-season recap: The 2016 NEC champions have never regained their form. A .500 finish in the league and first-round loss last year was followed by an equally underwhelming season, which included two losing streaks of four games or more. The season-ending foot injury to senior star Darian Anderson in January was, of course, a contributing factor.
Best win: 76-69 vs. Wagner (Feb. 11)
Player to watch: In Anderson’s absence, junior guard Darnell Edge emerged for FDU as its best scorer, averaging 14.1 points per game.
Last NCAA appearance: 2016
Tournament odds: 40-1
Fairleigh Dickinson can win it if: Edge and junior forward Mike Holloway Jr. are consistent forces, FDU recent success on the road is a preview for the week ahead, and the Knights’ shaky rebounding isn’t exposed too much.
Next: Sixth-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson visits third-seeded St. Francis (Pa.) in the quarterfinals Wednesday (7 p.m.)
MAAC
Thursday-Monday in Albany
Iona
Record: 17-13, 11-7 MAAC
Coach: Tim Cluess (Eighth season, 179-91)
RPI/KenPom: 126/141
Regular-season recap: Iona’s latest revamped roster remained among the most prolific offenses, averaging over 80 points per game, while shooting over 39 percent on 3-pointers. Despite being the preseason favorites, the Gaels struggled with consistency, and are in danger of winning less than 20 games for the first time since Cluess arrived in New Rochelle.
Best win: 80-72 vs. Weber State (Nov. 17)
Player to watch: Rickey McGill assumed much of the offensive void created when Iona lost its top three scorers from last season. The junior guard leads the team in scoring (14.5), assists (5.6) and steals (1.5) while making more than 39 percent of his 3-point attempts.
Last NCAA appearance: 2017
Tournament odds: 4-1
Iona can win it if: Experience matters more than momentum. The Gaels finished the season 5-6, but have claimed the past two conference tournaments, and have reached five straight title games. In a league where the top seed hasn’t won since 2010, Iona remains one of the favorites.
Next: Fourth-seeded Iona plays fifth-seeded Manhattan in the quarterfinals Saturday (9:30 p.m.).
Manhattan
Record: 14-16, 9-9 MAAC
Coach: Steve Masiello (Seventh season, 116-109)
RPI/KenPom: 219/212
Regular-season recap: The bounce-back season didn’t go as planned. Despite putting together its most talented roster in a few years, Manhattan suffered its third straight losing season, lost former prized recruit Aaron Walker Jr. for personal reasons, and again, didn’t have the offensive firepower to match its defensive intensity.
Best win: 63-61 at Hofstra (Dec. 20)
Player to watch: Rich Williams and Zane Waterman were All-MAAC selections, but sophomore Pauly Paulicap’s impact is unrivaled. The Long Island native emerged as the MAAC’s best defender in his first Division I season, averaging a team-best 2.6 blocks and 6.7 rebounds, with 9.8 points on 56 percent shooting.
Last NCAA appearance: 2015
Tournament odds: 15-1
Manhattan can win it if: Its ceiling gets a longer shelf life. Since winning back-to-back MAAC titles (2014-15), the Jaspers have won three straight games just once (January 2016).
Next: Fifth-seeded Manhattan plays fourth-seeded Iona in the quarterfinals Saturday (9:30 p.m.).
Monmouth
Record: 11-19, 7-11 MAAC
Coach: King Rice (Sixth season, 117-110)
RPI/KenPom: 191/177
Regular-season recap: After consecutive MAAC regular-season crowns — each followed by disappointing postseason performances — the Hawks took a significant step back, stringing together consecutive wins just twice this season. The result was the program’s lowest finish in the league in four years.
Best win: 91-77 vs. Rider (Feb. 22)
Player to watch: Junior guard Micah Seaborn is capable of carrying Monmouth past anyone in the league — he scored 30 points against co-league champion Rider in a Feb. 22 upset — but he was limited to 16 games this year, due to an assortment of injuries.
Last NCAA appearance: 2006
Tournament odds: 18-1
Monmouth can win it if: Seaborn can stay on the floor, freshmen guards Deion Hammond and Ray Salnave are consistent at both ends, and everything that went wrong in the MAAC Tournament for Monmouth the last two years goes right this time.
Next Play: Eighth-seeded Monmouth meets ninth-seeded St. Peter’s in the opening round Thursday (5 p.m.).
St. Peter’s
Records: 12-17, 6-12 MAAC
Coach: John Dunne (12th season, 151-220)
RPI/KenPom: 269/230
Regular-season recap: The Peacocks closed strong, winning their last two games, following a prolonged stretch of futility that saw them drop 10-of-12. Defense remains this program’s staple. St. Peter’s was first in the MAAC in points allowed (66.7), first in field-goal percentage defense (.415) and second in 3-point defense (.335).
Best win: 71-56 vs. LIU Brooklyn (Dec. 17)
Player to watch: A 6-foot-7 post player from Brooklyn, Sam Idowu gives St. Peter’s an inside presence. The junior averages 11.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game.
Last NCAA appearance: 2011
Tournament odds: 33-1
St. Peter’s can win it if: The close to the regular season is indicative of this team’s path. If Idowu owns the paint, leading-scorer Nick Griffin plays above his head for four games, and the defense dominates, there might be a magical run nobody could’ve predicted.
Next: Ninth-seeded St. Peter’s meets eighth-seeded Monmouth in the opening round Thursday (5 p.m.).
Fairfield
Record: 14-15, 9-9 MAAC
Coach: Sydney Johnson (Seventh season, 101-123)
RPI/KenPom: 196/222
Regular-season recap: The Stags enter the postseason hot, winners of four straight games and seven of nine, after a dismal January. This group has experience playing the nation’s best, facing Purdue and Houston during the non-conference season, so nothing will intimidate them.
Best win: 103-100 vs. Iona (Jan. 29)
Player to watch: The MAAC’s leading-scorer, senior guard Tyler Nelson averaged 21.8 points per game. The 6-foot-3 guard scores in a variety of ways, as a 33 percent 3-point shooter, and by getting to the free-throw line 5.8 times a night.
Last NCAA appearance: 1997
Tournament odds: 20-1
Fairfield can win it if: Nelson plays up to his potential as the league’s best player, sophomore guard Ferron Flavors Jr. is a reliable second option, and junior big man Jonathan Kasibabu delivers in the post as he did to close the regular season.
Next Play: Sixth-seeded Fairfield meets 11th-seeded Marist in the opening round Thursday (9 p.m.).
CAA
Saturday-March 6 in Charleston, S.C.
Hofstra
Record: 19-11, 12-6 CAA
Coach: Joe Mihalich (Fifth season, 88-74)
RPI/KenPom: 105/155
Regular-season recap: The Pride challenged themselves in their non-conference schedule — against Villanova, Auburn and Clemson — and benefitted later, re-establishing their status as conference contenders. Hofstra enters the postseason with four straight wins and another strong attack, averaging nearly 80 points per game.
Best win: 71-70 at Northeastern (Jan. 2 )
Player to Watch: Queens native Justin Wright-Foreman was the most improved scorer in the nation last season, and the 6-foot-1 junior took another leap this year, finishing as the nation’s fifth-leading scorer (24.2).
Last NCAA appearance: 2001
Tournament odds: 5-1
Hofstra can win it if: Rokas Gustys is the difference. While Wright-Foreman and Eli Pemberton carried the offense most of the season, Gustys never took the leap long expected. Still, the senior big man remains one of the league’s most unique talents.
Next: Third-seeded Hofstra plays sixth-seeded UNC-Wilmington in the CAA quarterfinals Sunday (8:30 p.m.).
Atlantic 10
March 7-11 in Washington D.C.
Fordham
Record: 9-19, 4-12 Atlantic 10
Coach: Jeff Neubauer (Third season, 39-49)
RPI/KenPom: 280/279
Regular-season recap: By far the worst year of Neubauer’s three seasons on Rose Hill, the Rams are tied for the Atlantic 10 basement with two games to go. They have lost four straight, all by double-figures, and are a woeful shooting team, hitting on 41 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point range.
Best win: 70-57 vs. Manhattan (Nov. 26)
Player to watch: Forward Prokop Slanina of the Czech Republic has been a bright spot in this dreary season. More than doubling his scoring output from a year ago (12.2 from 5.9), the 6-foot-10 junior can shoot over most defenders.
Last NCAA appearance: 1992
Tournament Odds: 1,000-1
Fordham can win it if: The odds speak for themselves. A last-place finish in the Atlantic 10 is probable and far more likely than a run in the conference tournament of any kind.
Next Play: Fordham visits George Washington Wednesday (7 p.m.) and hosts VCU Saturday (2 p.m.) in the regular-season finale.
Ivy League
March 10-11 in Philadelphia
Columbia
Record: 8-17, 5-7 Ivy League
Coach: Jim Engles (Second season, 19-33)
RPI/KenPom: 304/227
Regular-season recap: The Lions opened the season with seven games on the road, and only picked up one win in their first 11 games, but strong outside shooting, and the overall improvement of the worst offense in the conference last season has put the team in playoff position.
Best win: 83-76 vs. Harvard (Feb. 2)
Player to watch: Guard Mike Smith has become the unquestioned go-to guy as a sophomore, leading the Lions with 17.5 points and 1.2 steals per game, and topping the Ivy League with 4.5 assists per game.
Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 1968
Tournament odds: 33-1
Columbia can win it if: The Lions have to reach the four-team Ivy League playoff first. They are tied with Cornell for fourth place, and hold the tie-breaker over the Big Red.
Next: Columbia visits last-place Dartmouth on Friday (7 p.m.), then faces second-place Harvard on Saturday (7 p.m.) in the regular-season finale.
America East
Saturday, March 6, 10 at higher seeds
Stony Brook
Record: 12-18, 7-7 America East
Coach: Jeff Boals (Second season, 29-30)
RPI/KenPom: 222/236
Regular-season recap: The Seawolves finished a shocking second last season, but an underwhelming offense prevented them from contending again. Stony Brook won four of its final six games of the season, but never won more than two straight games all season, and went 4-11 on the road.
Best win: 75-73 in overtime at Rutgers (Dec. 22)
Player to watch: After being the team’s fourth-leading scorer last season, 6-foot-6 sophomore Akwasi Yeboah is the only player averaging double-digit points (15.6), and averages a team-high 5.1 rebounds.
Last NCAA appearance: 2016
Tournament odds: 75-1
Stony Brook can win it if: Free throws become a gift. The Seawolves lost seven games by six or fewer points this season, and rank 329th in the nation in free-throw percentage (65.4 percent).
Next: Fifth-seeded Stony Brook visits fourth-seeded Albany in the America East quarterfinals on Saturday (7 p.m.)
Patriot League
Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday, at higher seeds
Army
Record: 13-16, 6-12 Patriot
Coach: Jimmy Allen (Second season, 26-35)
RPI/KenPom: 270/262
Regular-season recap: Army was in a good spot nearly halfway through the league season, with a shot to finish in the top half, before hitting the skids, losing nine of their last 10 league contests, and five by single-digits.
Best win: 64-62 vs. Navy (Jan. 14)
Player to watch: When on, junior Jordan Fox is a treat to watch, Army’s leading scorer averages 13.5 points per game and hits 39 percent of his 3-point attempts.
Last NCAA appearance: None
Tournament odds: 100-1
Army can win it if: Momentum doesn’t matter, and the poor finish doesn’t carry over. A fresh start could be good for this group.
Next: Ninth-seeded Army meets eighth-seeded Loyola-Maryland in the opening round Tuesday (7 p.m.).