Brodie Van Wagenen has retained swagger. Rival executives who have had early communication with the new Mets general manager describe an executive much like he was as a player agent — confident and projecting a willingness to act.
This perception fuels belief Noah Syndergaard could be traded as part of a quick statement of decisiveness by a new administration.
The Padres and Reds are among the teams that have interest, and keep an eye out for the Rays, who have a deep system and want to big game hunt for young, controllable players in a window in which they think they are about to contend.
In return for Syndergaard, the Mets would want to upgrade the 2019 roster and their system, then sign a strong starter (a J.A. Happ/Nathan Eovaldi type) to keep the rotation dynamic. That is a difficult needle to thread.
Like Chris Sale after the 2015 season, Syndergaard has three years until free agency. Unlike Sale, he is not yet on a team-friendly contract and did not have the track record or health that Sale exhibited before being dealt to the Red Sox. Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech have had their reputations dim since the White Sox obtained them as the keys to the four-player package, but they were MLB.com’s Nos. 1 and 30 prospects in the game at the time of the deal. The Mets likely would get less in an overall return.
Syndergaard has made just 32 starts over the past two seasons (Sale had 57 in his last two Chicago years), so teams are going to have to be at peace about health. Plus, there is at least the perception of Syndergaard as high maintenance, though around the Mets his work ethic is well regarded. As one executive said, “The first act of Noah Syndergaard’s former agent when he becomes Mets GM is to look to trade Noah Syndergaard. It would give me pause to ask what does [Van Wagenen] know about the player that I do not?”
So I would put the chances of a trade at just 45 percent. But with Thanksgiving weekend gone, teams grow more serious about acting. This is what I am hearing about the rest of the high-end trade market:
1. Corey Kluber, Indians — The price tag remains high on Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. But: 1. Cleveland has to pare payroll, and counting options, Kluber has three years at $52.5 million left and Carrasco two years at $18.5 million, and Bauer could be due $25-30 million in arbitration over the next two seasons. 2. The AL Central is so weak the Indians would remain strong favorites even moving one of their better starters. 3. This is the probable best route to restock a rather barren outfield.
Likelihood a Cleveland starter is traded: 75 percent.
2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks — Arizona has a bottom-tier farm system, Goldschmidt entering his walk season and either lack the desire to sign him long-term in his thirties or lack the payroll maneuverability with Zack Greinke still on the books for three years at $104.5 million.
That is why a team that does not believe it is a title contender is rigorously shopping Goldschmidt. But Goldschmidt is the face of the franchise. Will owner Ken Kendrick allow an unpopular deal? Because the return likely will underwhelm. The value of players one year from free agency has never been lower and drop it further because few contenders need a first baseman.
The Yankees had been tied with Goldschmidt but never made an offer as they remain fixated on another starter after adding James Paxton, two relievers and coverage while Didi Gregorius recuperates from Tommy John surgery. The Astros, Cardinals and Phillies have been linked to Goldschmidt in reports.
Goldschmidt, 31, rallied from an atrocious start to finish sixth in the MVP balloting, but interested teams will wonder if a guy who has only played in one small market would recover similarly if troubles hit in 2019 in a new, larger locale with the pressure of the trade and approaching free agency upon him.
The Diamondbacks obviously would prefer to move Greinke. But add a $2 million trade kicker to that $104.5 million, no-trade rights to 15 teams, Greinke’s prickly reputation and that he is 35. Arizona would have to pay down a great deal or accept back a problematic contract such as St. Louis’ Dexter Fowler (three years at $49.5 million) or Philadelphia’s Carlos Santana (two years at $35.5 million). You can forget Jacoby Ellsbury (two years, $47.3 million) because the Yanks are not putting Greinke in New York.
Likelihood of a trade: 65 percent
3. J.T. Realmuto, Marlins — Prime-aged catching has never been in shorter supply, so Miami is rightly demanding the moon and the sun, but teams say the ask also includes the planets and all the stars. Is this a first salvo and prices will lower at some point or is this the price, essentially making Realmuto not on the market?
A few officials feel the Marlins have whiplash from a sell-off last year in which they did not get overwhelming returns, particularly for Christian Yelich, and are hesitant to move another star without getting overpaid.
“The only way to worsen the Yelich deal is to be paralyzed by it and not do the right thing [with Realmuto],” an NL executive said.
Realmuto has two years to free agency and almost certainly is not re-signing with Miami, so his greatest trade value is now. But further complicating matters is that the top pursuers of Realmuto have been from the NL East — Braves, Phillies and Nationals — and the Marlins would prefer a move out of the division. Atlanta also has now signed two catchers (Tyler Flowers and Brian McCann). The Brewers, Astros and others also have interest in Realmuto.
Likelihood of a trade: 35 percent.
4. Madison Bumgarner, Giants — New GM Farhan Zaidi has no allegiance to the three recent Giants titles but wants to upgrade talent for a team with a meh 25-man roster and poor system. Will San Francisco ownership let Zaidi move an icon, something that had been frowned on before by an organization that values ties to its history and avoiding total rebuilds when it is selling so many tickets?
Also: What is Bumgarner worth in his walk year, when the free agent market is sopping with lefty starters and he is coming off a season of missed starts, diminished strikeout percentage and increased walk rates? Might he have more value in July, closer to the playoffs, considering his reputation as an October stalwart? Or is that too much risk for the Giants and will they just get what they can get now?
Likelihood of a trade: 20 percent.