PATRIOTS (-4) over Chargers / Under (47½): This position puts us in a distinct minority among the so-called wise guys, and we’re well-aware of the circumstantial issues we’re facing — but the market makers are daring us to accept the surface value offered, and we’ll bite.
This is not a vintage Patriots squad. Time and physical attrition has brought the Pats closer to the rabble, and both logistical and climate conditions have made the sheer physical demands upon these red-hot Chargers daunting.
This is the Bolts’ third straight road game. Kansas City’s capture of the AFC West title rendered the Chargers a wild card, consigning them to the road and thus sentenced to coast-to-coast-to-coast West/East travel on successive weeks. What’s more, the relatively temperate conditions in Baltimore last week won’t exist. Though a midweek threat of snow has virtually disappeared, the Chargers are compelled to endure sub-freezing temps.
The broad history of Philip Rivers’ squad when on such exotic cross-country road trips is not conducive to above-average early-stages scoring prospects in this clash, making the chances of New England’s attaining an early lead likely — and Rivers has never beaten this foe, in seven tries.
Nevertheless, multiple current physical advantages likely accruing to the visitors give them at least a puncher’s chance. This is the most talented Chargers team of modern times — certainly better than the outfit which the 49ers annihilated in Miami, 49-26, Super Bowl XXIX following the 1994 season. Their pass rush — headed, by but by no means limited to, firebrand Joey Bosa — is fearsomely strong, giving them a chance to abuse Tom Brady’s greatest vulnerability — a foe’s ability to generate such an inconvenience, minimizing Brady’s optimum operating interval. If Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are consistently able to grind out ground yardage under Sunday’s circumstances, the Pats could have their hands full.
Despite Bill Belichick’s poor-mouthing the advantage, so many postseason home games at Gillette Stadium have been a meaningful factor in New England’s long-term success — that, and the broad, sustained weakness of the remainder of the AFC East. We may be near the end of the road — but not quite there, yet.
Patriots, 24-17.
Eagles (+8) over SAINTS / Under (51): NFC top seeds have been most difficult to take out in this round for three decades, and the Saints confirming their date in the conference championship tilt in the Superdome would not surprise us. However, the Saints’ history when giving capable opposing teams head starts of the caliber they are facing Sunday has been anything but bulletproof, in terms of spread coverage — even when competing over the Dome’s lightning-fast track.
Whatever you do, don’t get bent out of mental shape when contemplating Philadelphia’s 48-7 November humiliation at this site. It was Carson Wentz who threw the three picks at receptive Saint ballhawks — not supersub Nick Foles. Though not awe-inspiring, the Eagles’ secondary is much more competitive than it was earlier. And key backfield operative Darren Sproles was sidelined by injury for that nightmare, and his healthy presence here lends the Philly attack unit a meaningful added dimension.
We’ve noted our deep respect for the combination of reliable, dedicated, underrated performers on both sides of the ball in Eagles Land — operating in tandem with coach Doug Pederson, who has consistently pressed the right buttons at most-critical moments over the past season-plus. The Eagles’ knack for getting through this year’s mid-campaign ennui to attain their current competitive position is praiseworthy.
This is the Eagles’ fifth road game in their last half-dozen sorties — operating under constant pressures, while hoping against hope that the Vikings would gag their way out of the NFC postseason picture. Thanks to the Bears unwisely choosing to eliminate Minnesota in Week 17, Chicago provided entry to the Eagles, who beat them last week.
Drew Brees no doubt has been markedly aided by the offense-friendly rules recently installed by the league, but he has made the most of his chances throughout his stellar career. He turns 40 on Tuesday and is a sooner-or-later Hall of Famer, though a second Super Bowl would make any doubts disappear. But Philly currently is one of the toughest outs in the league with their battle-tested roster, relatively-healthy and in stroke. On their focused best, Eagles are capable of keeping this in doubt until the 11th hour.
Saints, 26-20.
Wild-card round: Side: 2-1-1
Over/Unders: 3-1.