Final ballots for the 91st Academy Awards were turned in Tuesday after two months of controversies, upsets and aggressive campaigning. And while it’s safe to say that “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman” and “Vice” won’t be taking home the Best Picture Oscar on Sunday night, the race is more wide open than it was the day after January’s Golden Globes.
Here’s where the other nominees stand.
“Green Book” (way up)
The movie about black pianist Don Shirley and Italian-American chauffeur Tony Lip’s journey through the Jim Crow South racked up a lot of nasty headlines. Shirley’s family denounced the film as “a symphony of lies,” and Nick Vallelonga (Lip’s son) was found to have tweeted in support of President Trump’s debunked claim that New Jersey Muslims celebrated on Sept. 11. Well, nobody cares. The Producers Guild still named it best theatrical motion picture, and one “Green Book”-loving Oscar voter told the Daily Beast that the movie is the victim of an “obvious smear campaign.” Momentum and box office grosses have built steadily, and its chances of winning Best Picture are strong.
“A Star Is Born” (down)
Could “A Star Is Born” pull an upset? Possibly, Little Monsters. But the bulk of the big awards so far have been evenly spread around “Green Book,” “Roma” and “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Expectations for Oscar wins for “A Star Is Born” and its stars — Lady Gaga and leading man/director Bradley Cooper — have pretty much ground to a halt.
“Roma” (up)
Alfonso Cuarón’s heartfelt ode to his Mexico City childhood was the obvious front-runner for weeks, but it seems to have suffered from voter fatigue. It did manage to win the BAFTA for best film in the UK, but the BAFTAs haven’t accurately picked the Oscar winner since 2013’s “12 Years a Slave.” There’s also been a revolt against nominating any film that’s streaming on Netflix. Though “Roma” is heavily favored to win Best Director, which often pairs with Best Picture, this small, artsy film is no longer the juggernaut it was.
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (middle)
Since its shocker win at the Golden Globes, accolades for the Freddie Mercury biopic have quieted. It failed to take home even best British film at the BAFTAs in the UK, where Mercury is idolized. But the film hasn’t totally bitten the dust: Expect to see star Rami Malek win Best Actor.
“The Favourite” (way down)
Director Yorgos Lanthimos’ courtly comedy ties with “Roma” for the most nominations — 10 — but it doesn’t have that film’s chances for Best Picture. While it managed to win outstanding British film at the BAFTAs, most awards groups have honored Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz’s performances more than the film itself. The Oscars might not even go that far, with Colman trailing Glenn Close.