Everybody wants to be the person to find the fatal flaw in the Lightning that will prevent the historically dominant Tampa Bay team from winning the Cup, and hey, maybe if injuries debilitate the back end the way they ultimately hobbled the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers’ blue line in 2014-15, the other 15 in the tournament may stand a chance.
The Lightning won 62 games, tied for the most in NHL history with the 1995-96 Red Wings team, and two more than the greatest single-season team to ever lace them up, the 1976-77 Canadiens.
But while Tampa Bay won 49 in regulation, adding seven in three-on-three and another six in the one-on-one shootout, the Wings won 59 in regulation, adding another three in five-on-five OT, while the Habs, of course, won all 60 in regulation in a 60-minute league.
But the Lightning aren’t competing against history as much as they are trying to create it. They are competing against a field they lapped over the marathon.
So if Tampa Bay, which has won seven playoff rounds the past four years beginning with the 2015 run to the final, does not win it this year, there is either something terribly wrong with the Lightning or else there is no particular reason for the NHL to present a 1,271-game carnival across the continent for six months.
The ’96 Red Wings, you know, lost in the conference finals to Colorado in the bloodbath series, and why anyone in Tampa would welcome comparisons with that undone team is beyond me, but the Avalanche were regarded as equals to Detroit entering the tournament.
And yes, the Golden State Warriors were prematurely declared among the best of all time in ringing up a record-setting 73-9 season as defending champs in 2015-16 before losing the final in seven in cavalier fashion to Cleveland while blowing a 3-1 lead. So it can happen.
And if you believe Alex Ovechkin is a stand-in for LeBron James, a likely conference final in which the Lightning must dethrone the reigning champ Capitals could present a serious challenge to Tampa Bay’s manifest destiny.
But we’re picking at straws here, reaching for comparisons across the ages and across sports. In 1977 (and 1978, for that matter), it wasn’t a matter of whether the Canadiens would win, but over whom in the finals and in how many games. Answers: Boston both times, the first in a sweep, the next in six games.
It may not be quite as clear cut now as then, but then, off the mountains of evidence compiled since October, well, yes, it is exactly that clear cut. The rest of the field presents a wide lane for upsets but if the Lightning don’t win it all, something is screwy.
THE FAVORITE: The Lightning are built to last, presenting a deep, multi-dimensional unit of forwards who dazzle with skill and win enough one-on-one’s to play a grinder’s counterpunch game if necessary. Nikita Kucherov became the breakout star his 2015 playoff performance presaged, Steven Stamkos had the most overlooked 45-goal season in memory and Brayden Point got 41 headlining a deep group of forwards who never back down. The Victor Hedman-Ryan McDonagh two-pronged beast on the left side of the blue line takes care of all matchup issues and Andrei Vasilevskiy is elite in nets.
THE CONTENDERS: The Capitals, 16 playoff wins and a Cup later, have the appropriate swagger of a champion and Alex Ovechkin, equally important to the title defense. Washington did shut out Tampa Bay in both Games 6 and 7 of last year’s conference finals after falling behind 3-2, so there’s that institutional memory. The defense will miss the injured Michal Kempny. As always, the outcome of a series involving Washington stands to be affected by the way officials and the department of player safety response to Tom Wilson.
The Bruins have been in Tampa Bay’s wake for a couple of years, locked with the Maple Leafs playing the roles of the Flames and original Jets to the Oilers of the 80’s. Except actually the Lighting aren’t those Oilers. The Bruins are expected to prevail in the first-round matchup against the Maple Leafs, who probably are under a hotter spotlight than anyone other than the Lightning.
Toronto won only 20 of its final 44 games (20-18-6), and if this is a quickie, Mike Babcock’s record of three playoff-round victories dating back to 2010 will become a more frequent topic of conversation than management’s failure to go all-in for this one at the deadline.
The Flames present a blend of talent and toughness that would give them a credible shot if not for the goaltending that features a choice between Mike Smith and David Rittich. No wonder coach Bill Peters doesn’t want to make a public choice. By the way? Imagine if a baseball manager refused to name his starting pitcher for Game 1 of the playoffs until hours before the first pitch. Bush-league stuff.
The Predators and Jets, running in place, seem to be doing this more by muscle memory than off the impetus of an improved shot at winning it all and you figure the Jets are one of those teams in a win-now mode because of their cap issues.
Vegas is as dangerous as San Jose in a first-round reprise of last year’s conference final, with both teams looking for a bump provided by Mark Stone on one side and Erik Karlsson on the other and if the Sharks lose because of goaltending, would they hit 917 on the cell to try and pry Henrik Lundqvist away?
The Blues were behind the Rangers in the overall standings as late as early January, which tells you both how long the season is and how dramatic the impact of promoting Jordan Binnington to play goal.
PARTICIPATION TROPHIES: The Penguins have probably squeezed all they can out of the Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin nexus, but the deadline support acquisitions of Jared McCann and Nick Bjugstad have given Pittsburgh a slightly different look and feel down the lineup. A return to dominance by Malkin, who had a fairly ordinary year, would make this more than just a good name opponent.
The Jackets have added talent over the last couple of years but this second wild-card team’s reputation as an upper-echelon team reflects a hangover from the overachieving group that won 16 straight games in 2016-17. Columbus had never won a playoff series and projected $70 million goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed three goals or more in 16 of his 17 tournament starts for the Jackets, four or more nine times.
The Avalanche, anticipating a top-four pick in the draft and the arrival of UMass defenseman Cale Makar following the conclusion of the Frozen Four, are playing with more house money than even the zany Candy Canes and buttoned-down Islanders.