Why Paul O’Neill is predicting Yankees in 4

Paul O’Neill, the Warrior in his playing days with the Yankees and now one of their analysts on YES, sits down with Steve Serby to break down their series with the Twins. While O’Neill is off for the first two games of the series, Bob Lorenz, John Flaherty, Jack Curry and Buck Showalter will be in studio with Michael Kay, David Cone and Meredith Marakovits at the Stadium. YES’ pregame show on Friday starts at 6 p.m. and Saturday’s starts at 4 p.m.

Q: Is this season a failure if the Yankees don’t win the World Series?
A: If you have a subpar year and don’t get to the playoffs, you just had a bad year. But once you get to the playoffs, you don’t get to the World Series, yeah. In Yankees fans’ minds, in the organization, it’s a failure.

Q: Yankee Stadium as an advantage?
A: It’s a huge advantage. If you look at the numbers, how they played at home, you get comfortable in certain ballparks. It can help you or can hurt you. Obviously, if you get off to a great start and you’re at home, it pretty much takes over the atmosphere. There are times in playoff games when if you get behind and you’re struggling offensively, you almost feel the stress and the anxiety of the fans, and sometimes it can work against you. But the Yankees to me have played so well at home that it should only be an advantage.

Q: What was it like for you, what you felt inside as a player, when the Stadium was rocking in October?
A: There’s so much importance for those 25 people, but when you add in the excitement of New York, and the history … still to this day, there’s times where I think of certain plays or certain things that happened in playoff games that still give me goose bumps. It’s such a cliché, only in New York, or there’s no other place like it, but for lack of better words, that’s basically the truth.

Q: You fed off the energy of the crowd, right?
A: Oh, absolutely. When you run out just to do your sprints, and it’s dark because it’s October, and you hear the noise, and the life, it immediately hits you, like there’s something different. We were so fortunate to go through it numerous years, have an opportunity to play in playoffs, and then play in Yankee Stadium with the people that live and die with the Yankees winning or losing … it was some of the coolest days of my life, believe me.

Q: What are your expectations for James Paxton?
A: He’s kinda really been on a roll. He had that scare [in his final start of the regular season], and I think it was nothing more than a scare. When I say fill-in-the-blank pitching, it’s starting pitching, I have no doubts about the bullpen. It’s starting pitching, and keeping the ball in the ballpark where you can get to your bullpen with a lead. That is the most important thing to me in this series.

Q: What should Yankees fans expect from Luis Severino?
A: I think that you’re looking at a quality pitcher, no doubt about it, but I think you’re looking at a much shorter start at this point than you would than if he was the ace of your staff all year.

Q: So you think he can give them five innings?
A: I do. I think if he throws the ball well and he doesn’t have long innings early in the game, I think he can get through the fifth inning, and with all the analytics, that’s basically what you want in a starting pitcher, especially in the playoffs.

Q: Is Masahiro Tanaka the playoff pitcher you have the most faith in?
A: I love him at home, obviously, his home splits were phenomenal this year. You know he’s not gonna be overwhelmed.

Q: The left-handed arms in the Yankees bullpen are not a concern to you against the Twins?
A: No, not in the bullpen, because they’re not like match-up lefties. The Yankees have guys that are power pitchers and tremendous left or right, and believe me, looking back, there were left-handers I didn’t mind facing and there were left-handers that were no fun. In my mind, those guys are on the Yankees staff.

Q: How much pressure is there on Giancarlo Stanton?
A: I think when you look at the team’s record and what they did without Stanton, I think that it takes some of the pressure off of him. Obviously (Aaron) Judge and (Gleyber) Torres, guys that can hit the ball out of the ballpark, take a lot of pressure off of him. When you have a great year, you go into the playoffs feeling like you’re gonna be a big part of something. Sometimes when you’re just coming in, it was a whole thing just to get ready for the playoffs, but you don’t have anything to base it on. I would say Game 1 is extremely important for guys like Stanton, if (Edwin) Encarnacion’s in there, guys that need to get off to a good start to have some confidence.

Q: Can he have his Yankees moment?
A: A Yankee moment in Round 1 of the playoffs, is that it? I don’t know. I think if he has a tremendous playoff season, a tremendous October, I think that it will open the fans’ eyes of how good this guy really is. We’ve seen numbers from last year and obviously the numbers in Miami, but until you do something like that in the playoffs, it’s like everybody is waiting for it. So sure, the table’s set, whether you have that October, which is very hard as a player, because you do everything on gauging (500) or 600 at bats, you know when you get into the playoffs, 10 or 12 at-bats in a series, it can be all-or-nothing.

Q: What enabled you to be the Warrior in October?
A: Looking back at our teams, we expected to win because everybody was kinda in on winning. It wasn’t, “I get some hits, I’m fine.” It was all about everybody’s gonna get their just due if the team wins, and then you kinda let it sink in at the end. We were so well-rounded, I don’t think I ever felt or anybody ever felt like, “I have to do something more than I’m capable of doing for the team to win.”

Q: You had to be more locked-in than you had been all year, right?
A: Oh, there’s no doubt about it. Even watching that (Nationals-Brewers NL wild card) game (Wednesday) night, when I went to bed I had nerves, because I put myself in those positions, in those big at-bats, like (Juan) Soto’s at-bat. I mean, those are career-changing at-bats. Over the course of the season, you think that you’re not gonna give an at-bat away — it can’t happen over 162 games. But when you get into the playoffs, your concentration can be there EVERY SINGLE PITCH both defensively and offensively, and that’s why, to me, the playoffs are so exhausting mentally more so than physically.

Q: The single playoff moment that you’re most proud of?
A: I’d have to get back to you next week in that (laugh). It would take me a long time ’cause I had a lot of opportunities. Defensively, obviously, the catch in Atlanta (Game 5, 1996 World Series). I would look at that … I have memories of home runs against Seattle when they were that great team that we ended up beating in ’01. Every year has its own little story, and to take one or two, it’d be very hard. The (2000) Mets series to me offensively I felt like that was the best World Series I had.

Q: What are you expecting from Aaron Judge in this series?
A: Aaron Judge is the leader of this team, and he doesn’t shy away from it. I don’t know that the Yankee fans realize that is why younger players come here, and it’s so easy to them to progress to being great players quick, is because they follow in the footsteps of somebody like Judge, who’s done it, and who had the right mentality of the importance of winning. I look forward to him having a big October, I really do.

Q: Brett Gardner?
A: You need leaders, obviously, and I had mentioned Judge, but inspirational-wise and just tenacity, you would look at Gardy. That at-bat he had in Cleveland a few years ago in the playoffs, I mean, one of the better at-bats I’ve ever seen, and that’s just because he grinds at it, and that’s the type of player he is and that’s why he’s been respected by teammates and fans.

Q: Gleyber Torres has been in a little bit of a tailspin.
A: Those type of things don’t really bother me at all, because once you have a couple of days off, and then you get into the playoffs, it is so far different, your at-bats, the intensity … It’s like having a bad spring training, you come into it Opening Day, you have a couple of hits and you’re off and running. He has been so phenomenal this year offensively, and he has so much talent, I expect big things from him.

Q: How about Didi (Gregorius)? He’s struggled for a while here.
A: It’s going back mentally on being able to visualize things, and if you look what he’s done in the playoffs, and some of the big games he’s had, he can draw on those if you put yourself in a place where you feel confident. He has the ability to do that because he’s done some great things in the playoffs for the Yankees.

Q: How impressed have you been with DJ LeMahieu?
A: He has been most fun for me to watch all year. I hope he’s almost the renaissance of bringing that type of hitter back into the game, to show that you can be successful by putting the ball in play and hitting over .300 and driving in important runs. I enjoyed watching him so much this year ’cause there’s nothing other than taking the field, playing the game of baseball, and he was definitely the MVP of this team this year. What he did when a lot of people were down, it was amazing.

Q: Gary Sanchez?
A: There’s not too many catchers that give you that type of offensive power. He made huge strides defensively this year, and offensively he can have a series and pretty much take it over offensively, he has that capability.

Q: The job that Aaron Boone did this season?
A: It’s one of the best managerial seasons I’ve seen. A lot of people say, “Well they won over 100 games, that’s easy to say.” To make a team believe that you can still win, with all the things that were happening, to me, that comes from the manager. He didn’t panic, and he still made this team believe that they could win when they had half their team on the IL.

Q: Do you think he feels any pressure after leaving Severino and CC Sabathia in too long in Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS against the Red Sox?
A: There’s always pressure. If there’s one decision that he made that can go either-or, then sure, it becomes a lot of pressure on the manager. The switches and the changes and even the playoff roster. Who’s gonna be on it? Who’s gonna be available? These things are all gonna be looked at, either good or bad. So sure there’s pressure on him. But he has handled it unbelievable the first couple of years here in New York.

Q: Does he remind you of Joe Torre at all?
A: In a sense. Joe Torre, the respect factor as far as he had been through so much, and his age being kind of a father figure. But as far as being calm, and not panicking and understanding the length of the season, Aaron Boone and Joe Torre do have some similarities.

Q: Who could be an unsung hero for the Yankees in October?
A: (Gio) Urshela, obviously. Here’s a guy that you never would have guessed Opening Day that he’d be your third baseman going into the playoffs. And I think also the middle relief. Chad Green to me, (Adam) Ottavino, (Zack) Britton. (Aroldis) Chapman’s gonna get the save opportunities, but those guys are the guys that can really control the game and make Aaron Boone’s job a lot easier.

Q: If you had to pick an October MVP for the Yankees?
A: I would probably say Judge or Torres. They still have the youth and the energy, but they still have the talent to do stuff. As a pitcher, I think Ottavino and Britton have been so tough out there in the bullpen, they can do some big things … (Tommy) Kahnle also. To me it’s gonna be a matter of getting to your strength, and the Yankees’ strength obviously is their bullpen.

Q: Your general thoughts on Yankees-Twins?
A: Sometimes when you play teams, it kinda gets in your head that you can’t beat ’em, and I think the Yankees have had a ton of success against Minnesota. But this is a much different team. They line up much differently than the past Twins playoff teams because of their power obviously, because they have the veterans and (Nelson) Cruz. I don’t think they’re gonna walk all over ’em. The Twins are a very, very dangerous team, but I think that the Yankees are, too.

Q: The Twins rotation and their bullpen?
A: They’ve got adequate pitching. If they score runs like they’re accustomed to, they can be very dangerous. In a five-game series, momentum, it’s very hard to switch it once it gets on one side. Game 1, Game 2, obviously is hugely important, more so for the Yankees playing at home.

Q: What scares you about the Twins?
A: Cruz obviously in a big situation, there’s certain guys you don’t want to pitch to. Obviously the home runs scare you, because in big playoff games, seldom are they slugfests, but they could well be. They had an historic year this year. On both sides, 27 outs is very important. I don’t think either team defensively was the best in the league. When you play a team that is capable of hitting a lot of home runs, you gotta give them 27 outs. You can’t give them extra at-bats by kicking the ball around.

Q: The Over-Under on number of home runs?
A: I’m gonna say it’s a four-game series … I would say the Over-Under would probably be in the 14 range.

Q: You like the Yanks in 4?
A: I do. I like the Yankees in 4.

Q: Fill in the blank: the Yankees will lose if…
A: If they don’t pitch well.

Q: And if it’s Yankees-Houston!?
A: On paper, you look at Houston as being the favorite because of their pitching, but who’s to say one of those top three guys has a bad night or something? But Houston’s a very, very good team. But the last thing you want to do is you’re in that Yankee locker room is look past the Twins.

Q: Are you picking the Yankees to win it all?
A: I am picking the Yankees to go the World Series. Let’s talk again (laugh).