HOUSTON — Once the World Series concludes, the World Series of poker begins — the high-stakes game to land an ace: Gerrit Cole.
With apologies to Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner, etc. … Cole’s free agency will loom largest this offseason. You can find executives who believe no starter has ever been as well positioned to land a record payday. Cole is in his prime (29), durable, postseason-tested and the darling of both the scouting and analytic universes.
He will exceed David Price’s $217 million for most ever bestowed on a pitcher and Justin Verlander’s $33 million for most given annually. He might push suitors toward $300 million. So who would be in play for this? Some early thoughts:
Angels — The ideal fit. They crave pitching, in general, and great pitching, specifically, and they already have wasted too much of Mike Trout’s prime failing to procure it. Cole grew up nearby, attended Angels games regularly and seems inclined to try to get back toward home.
What can derail this? Angels owner Arte Moreno has shown no appetite previously to negotiate big deals with Scott Boras or to tick over the luxury tax threshold. The Angels are one year away from getting out from Zack Cozart, two years from Albert Pujols, three from Justin Upton. So long-term, they would be building around Cole and Trout at about $70 million to $75 million annually. Does Moreno have the tolerance to run out the bad contracts while supporting a payroll around the two stars?
Yankees — You know the story: The Yankees drafted Cole in the first round. He went to UCLA. They pursued him in trades, but wouldn’t yield Miguel Andujar. Cole went from Pittsburgh to Houston. This is the Yanks’ third try. Without Giancarlo Stanton’s albatross contract on the books, New York would probably be certain to pursue the righty fervently. Does Stanton scare them further about long-term deals? Does Stanton plus Cole equal a near-luxury-tax delinquency for a while that scares the Yankees off? Like the Angels in the AL West, if the Yankees take Cole from the Astros, they are adding from a direct competitor in the superteam division.
Dodgers — Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have stayed clear of long mega-deals, the philosophy is general: How would we know who is going to be good in 2026? But they have seven straight NL West titles and no championship since 1988, and Cole and/or Rendon make them better without destroying their payroll, especially because big pacts for Justin Turner (after 2020), Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw (both after 2021) expire in the next two years. They can flex if they want to.
Rangers — They are opening a new park in 2020 and their competitors expect the Rangers to be among the most aggressive teams this offseason. You hear them aligned more with Rendon (a native Texan). But perhaps they go short-term with a third baseman such as Josh Donaldson and try to nab Cole away from their state/AL West rival to team with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor in a strong top of the rotation.
Phillies — No team spent as much in free agency the past two offseasons ($572.25 million). The hiring of Joe Girardi as manager by aggressive owner John Middleton suggests Philadelphia is still in go-for-it mode. The Phillies need pitching, lots of it. So perhaps they diversify. But a 1-2 of Cole and Aaron Nola sure will intrigue them, and as Harper’s $330 million pact reveals, the Phils can do this echelon of contract with Boras.
The field — The Astros could retain Cole, but they already have big-ticket items in Verlander, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Zack Greinke tied up and probably want to get George Springer done before his 2020 walk season. I suggested the Mets go for Cole, but this has not been waters in which their ownership wants to swim.
The Cardinals talk annually about using financial heft, but even if they did so, a hitter such as Rendon would fit them better. The White Sox danced with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado last year, but does Cole want to spend the rest of his career with Chicago’s other team? Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi might not undertake a traditional tear-it-down reconstruction, but this level of commitment when they are still at least two years from real contention feels unlikely.