It’s a group with great résumés, but can the Mets count on past performance to translate into future results?
Not long ago, a rotation that slotted in Rick Porcello, Marcus Stroman and Michael Wacha behind the team’s big guns would have sounded downright terrorizing, and a lineup that included Yoenis Cespedes and Robinson Cano wouldn’t have been far behind. Rewind two years and a bullpen featuring Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances on the back end would have tantalized.
In all, if the Mets were about to head into a season with the 2017 or ’18 version of this crew, they would likely be the NL East favorite.
Of the eight players just mentioned, the Mets will need at least three or four to approach their old form if they are to take the next step and snap a three-season playoff drought.
A closer look at general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s ploy to yield significant returns in 2020 from low-risk or underperforming investments.
Porcello: The former AL Cy Young Award winner arrived on a one-year contract worth $10 million, after a down season with the Red Sox. Now the Mets are betting on the idea he can shave at least one run from last season’s 5.52 ERA and give the team a formidable fourth or fifth starter. The trend for Porcello in recent seasons has been to follow a clunker with a better year. If that pattern holds, the Mets should get the boost they need.
Stroman: He was an All-Star as recently as last season, but endured a transition after arriving to the Mets at the trade deadline. Even so, Stroman was solid down the stretch and finished with a 3.77 ERA in his 11 starts for the team. Fair or not, Stroman will probably be compared to Zack Wheeler next season (Van Wagenen acquired the former Blue Jays pitcher as insurance against Wheeler leaving as a free agent). Wheeler ultimately received $118 million over five years from the Phillies. Stroman, in his last arbitration-eligible season before hitting the market, could bring the Mets more bang for the buck.
Wacha: The right-hander largely fits the same profile as Porcello, with perhaps a smidge less upside. Only twice (2015 and ’17) has Wacha made 30 starts, but in both of those seasons he was a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Cardinals. If Porcello and Wacha are both strong in spring training, does that leave Steven Matz in the bullpen?
Cespedes: The fact the oft-injured outfielder’s restructured contract includes an extra $5 million if he’s on the roster to start the season tells you there is a decent chance he will be ready for the opening bell. Cespedes brought elite power to the lineup before missing the last 1 ½ seasons. If he’s healthy, a lineup with Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Cano and Cespedes hitting in succession could be a sight to behold.
Cano: The final two months of last season at least restored some belief the former All-Star second baseman (who still has four years remaining on his contract) isn’t finished. Cano’s .880 OPS in the second half was a significant factor in the team’s surprising playoff contention. Cano, who turned 37 in October, might not be an everyday player at this point, but can’t be counted out.
Diaz: He went from best to (almost) worst in just one season. The Mets would probably sign up for something between the two for the right-hander, who appeared overwhelmed pitching in New York. It’s expected that Diaz will enter spring training as the closer.
Familia: In 2016 he established a Mets record with 51 saves in a season. Familia hasn’t been the same since, but was still effective for two seasons before completely nose-diving last summer. If the Mets can rediscover the 2017 or ’18 Familia, the bullpen improves immediately. Otherwise, the three-year deal for $30 million he received last winter will live in infamy.
Betances: The former stud Yankees reliever has plenty to prove after arriving on a one-year deal that carries a $10.5 million guarantee. Betances had shoulder and back problems last season before tearing an Achilles. He could be a steal for the Mets, but he is hardly a sure thing. But such unpredictability is generally true with even healthy relievers.