Americans might be sick of Iraq and the Middle East, but the region isn’t done with us. We can’t wish away the impact that a chaotic Middle East has on our allies, interests and security. That was the hard lesson of 9/11.
The United States responded to that atrocity by entering the region decisively, if not always with the greatest foresight. In Iraq, we overthrew Saddam Hussein, quashed two Islamist insurgencies and attempted to support a fragile, multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian democracy. At every step, Iran, an old adversary, tried to undo our efforts.
But the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani could be a true turning point, depending on how Team Trump proceeds. Washington could build on last week’s monumental success to counter Tehran’s hegemonic ambitions in Iraq and beyond — or it can leave and allow the ayatollahs to expand their influence.
Iran’s supreme leader has already appointed Esmail Ghaani to replace Soleimani. Ghaani is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq War and the Syrian Civil War. He was Soleimani’s No. 2 for two decades. He has decades of operational experience and had been scheming alongside Soleimani. But Ghaani isn’t Soleiamni, at least not yet. By staying engaged, the United States can make sure Ghaani doesn’t become another Soleimani to wreck Mideast havoc for another generation.
Ghaani needs to prove to Iran’s friends in Iraq that he is as capable as Soleimani was. Until then, friend and foe alike will view him with skepticism. America’s next move shouldn’t be to cut and run; it is to make sure Iraqis won’t accept Ghaani as a capable leader like they did Soleimani.
The Quds Force, the elite unit that Soleimani commanded, is the glue that holds Iran’s network of proxies together, a network widespread from Afghanistan to Iraq to Syria to Israel. In fact, some elements of that network, members of the Lebanese Hezbollah, even operate south of America’s border in Latin America. If America prevents Ghaani from becoming a powerful force like Soleimani was, the network could fall apart.
President Trump is upset with the recent vote in the Iraqi Parliament that was mistakenly reported as an anti-US move. The resolution was an Iraqi nationalist one. It didn’t call for the American troops to leave. It called for all foreign forces to leave, which includes Iran. Besides, it was a “sense-of-the-Parliament” vote and has no legal binding.
To ease the pressure on the Iraqi government, the United States military decided to reposition its forces inside Iraq. An episode of absolute incompetence followed when the United States’ commanding officer in Iraq, Brig. Gen. William Seely, seems to have sent a letter to the Iraqi minister of defense, notifying him of America’s intention to leave Iraq altogether, unauthorized by the Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley.
A member of the Khaz’ali network, an Iranian proxy, inside the prime minister’s office cheerfully leaked the letter to humiliate the Americans. The episode demonstrates how much the Iranians want America gone from Iraq. And the rule of thumb is that if Iran tells America to jump, we shouldn’t; making Tehran happy is always the wrong move.
Tehran will be the biggest beneficiary if we leave, but it won’t be the only one.
Since the United States took the fight to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, there have been zero attacks inside the homeland. But a recent Pentagon study warned that Islamic State is regrouping to come back. If America leaves, Islamic State, or a version 2.0, is likely to return, as Iranian-backed Shiite militias squeeze friendless Sunnis; if the caliphate reconstitutes itself, attacks on US or European soil could return.
Then there is the bigger strategic picture. China also wants a piece of Iraq. A corrupt government and lots of cheap oil — what’s not to like? Besides, Beijing along with Vladimir Putin’s Russia would love to fill the vacuums that America leaves behind. Fact is, the Middle East is another battlefront against Chinese and Russian revanchism. Are we really prepared to let these US rivals emerge as the principal outside powers in one of the most strategically sensitive and crucial regions on the globe?
Now is not the time to retreat. The Islamic State and Iran grew powerful because President Barack Obama decided to leave Iraq. Let’s not repeat his mistake.
Shay Khatiri is a graduate student of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.