NFL free agency 2020: Four realistic landing spots for Tom Brady
The football world has been abuzz about one topic ever since the New England Patriots’ playoff campaign ended unceremoniously in January: Where will Tom Brady play in 2020?
For the first time, the answer to that question is far from obvious amid a never-ending cacophony of conflicting rumors. Toss in any number of opaque social media smoke signals from Brady, and it quickly becomes difficult to discern fact from fiction.
After 20 seasons in New England, the six-time Super Bowl champion is set to test the crowded quarterback free-agent market for the first time. Patriots owner Robert Kraft wants him to stay in New England or retire. Brady says he has “more to prove,” and as perhaps the most important free-agent domino, many quarterback-needy teams will be in a holding pattern until he signs a new contract.
The future Hall of Famer earned $23 million in 2019 and likely will command around $30 million on the open market. With one to two viable years as a starter remaining, the 42-year old has made it clear it’s not just about the paycheck: He needs to join a team that can win a Super Bowl.
The Titans are officially out of the mix after signing quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a four-year, $118 million contract on Sunday. Tennessee had been discussed as a viable new home due in part to Brady’s close relationship with head coach Mike Vrabel. Reports on Sunday indicated that the 49ers are also out of the Brady sweepstakes and “will be standing pat with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback.”
Teams outside of New England can begin to speak to Brady starting today at noon. NFL free agency officially kicks off on March 18 at 4 p.m.
With the bonanza about to begin, here are four realistic landing spots for Tom Brady.
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1. New England Patriots
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady after the AFC wild-card game against the Titans. Getty Images Despite the hullabaloo, the Patriots remain the favorites to keep Brady. That changes if the team does not re-sign him before the free-agency deadline. If Brady were to feel out the market and then re-sign with the team, the Patriots would be deprived of the option to restructure Brady’s annual cap hit, meaning his dead cap hit of $13.5 million would count entirely against their 2020 cap.
Adapting to an entirely new system is difficult for any player, and could be a serious deterrent for the soon-to-be 43-year-old. Brady already has a strong relationship with the coaching staff, and after 20 years with the team, New England fans view him as a hometown deity.
If Brady does not return, the Patriots have few viable options. Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, 23, appeared in mop-up duty three times this season and has given little indication he is ready to take over the role full-time. The likelihood that the team makes a trade to land one of the blue-chip quarterback prospects in the draft is low, as head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for trading down, not up.
It’s possible that New England has lost some of its luster, however. A beleaguered Brady openly voiced frustration with the Patriots’ offense last season, namely the dearth of pass-catchers, and their salary cap may restrict them from signing any big names once the dust settles.
In addition to Brady, the Patriots will have to make decisions on safety Devin McCourty, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett, special teams player Matthew Slater, left guard Joe Thuney and linebacker Jamie Collins, all of whom are eligible for free agency.
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2. Las Vegas Raiders
Tom Brady and Raiders owner Mark Davis. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images The Raiders enter free agency with the ninth-most cap space and have been “poised to pursue” Brady ever since the Super Bowl, according to NFL Network.
Chatter initially started when a photo of the Patriots quarterback and Raiders owner Mark Davis at UFC 246 went viral, after which Brady characterized himself as “open-minded” about leaving the Patriots. Some speculated that Davis had tried to make a premature pitch, which would have violated league-tampering rules. UFC commissioner Dana White even made his own impassioned plea.
The Raiders have more than enough weapons on their roster in receivers Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow, tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs to placate Brady. He would also have the opportunity to be the centerpiece of the Raiders’ inaugural season in Las Vegas.
This potentially leaves no place for quarterback Derek Carr. The 28-year-old is under contract until 2021 and seems unfazed by the Brady-Davis connection or the rumors the team may want to trade him.
Head coach Jon Gruden recently fawned over Carr to the Las Vegas Review-Journal:
“We love our quarterback. Our quarterback’s a really good player, Derek Carr. I want to reiterate that to everybody here in Vegas. We’ve got a good, young quarterback, and the film, the statistics and analytics prove it.”
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3. Los Angeles Chargers
Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. Boston Globe via Getty Images The Chargers publicly moved on from their longtime quarterback, Philip Rivers, earlier this offseason and are expected to make a run at Brady. They will enter free-agency with $55.88 million in cap space (12th-most) and already have talented weapons in wide receiver Keenan Allen, tight end Hunter Henry and pass-catching running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.
Los Angeles would be an attractive option for Brady, who already owns a mansion in the area. He recently launched a multi-platform content company called “199 Productions,” a nod to his draft position back in 2000, laying the groundwork for life after football in Hollywood.
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4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady throws a pass in Tampa Bay. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images The Buccaneers seem all-in on Brady and are willing to give up more than $30 million to land him. ESPN’s Diana Russini reported last week that the Buccaneers “would love to have Tom Brady,” and are “willing to give Tom Brady the things he needs, he wants” which include play-calling and roster control.
Russini noted that head coach Bruce Arians has been quarterback-friendly in the past, specifically as the Steelers offensive coordinator when he let Ben Roethlisberger call plays.
The team enters free agency with about $85 million in cap space (third-most in the league) and have a bevy of potent weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.
NBC Sports’ Peter King has referred to the Buccaneers as the “dark horse” to land Brady this offseason. He also characterized the chances the team moves on from 25-year-old Jameis Winston as “likely,” which aligns with some of some comments Arians has made about his quarterback.
“If we can win with this [quarterback], we can definitely win with another one, too,” Arians said at the team’s end-of-season press conference. “You look at it and there’s so much good and so much outright terrible.”