We may not know when the 2020 MLB season will begin, but we do know that, with a truncated season ahead, there are a few adjustments to make when formulating your fantasy baseball draft plan.
First and foremost, do not overvalue starting pitching. Though hurlers like Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom have a distinct talent advantage over most of their contemporaries, one of the primary reasons their value is so high in fantasy is their innings-pitched advantage.
Last season, there were 15 starters who threw for more than 200 innings. Of those, just two had an ERA over 4.00 and just five had a mark of 3.70 or higher. Just three had fewer than 200 strikeouts, and nine had in excess of 220. But in 2020, none of those pitchers will throw for 200 innings.
To throw more than 200 innings, each of these starters needed at least 32 starts in a given season. If the average pitcher makes five starts in a month, a truncated season may yield just 20-22 starts, and even 20 complete games isn’t going to push them over that 200-inning mark. With that advantage removed and looking at another 15 starters who threw at least 150 innings with a strikeout per inning and an ERA below 4.00, you can see how the positional depth is diluted. And that doesn’t even account for the number who did the same with just 120 innings pitched. Yes, an ace has value, but waiting on starting pitching is definitely the way to go right now.
You should also forget about most, if not all, rookies. Someone like Luis Robert of the White Sox is fine, as he is expected to start the season in the majors, but young hopefuls such as Jo Adell, Dylan Carlson and MacKenzie Gore should be relatively ignored in redraft formats.
Though questions regarding service time and the Super-Two free-agent clock still need to be answered, teams really don’t have much incentive to use their kids in a shortened season, outside of injuries. Veterans who run low on stamina won’t have as arduous a season, and the new rule implemented this year of a 28-man roster in September, instead of the usual 40-man roster, means there is less opportunity to bring a rookie to take the place of a player the team is already committed to pay.
No one wants an abbreviated MLB season, but it doesn’t look like there’s much choice. We play the hand we’ve been dealt. The only difference, though, is knowing how make the right fantasy adjustments, and that always starts with draft strategy. Understand the value of what a player brings to the table and if it doesn’t stick, you need make the proper change.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays at 4 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy advice, MLB lineups and DFS weather updates.