When the time does eventually come to draft your fantasy baseball team and you are making your final preparations for the 2020 MLB season, there are a number of strategies to be adjusted.
Elite starting pitching should become less of an early priority with so many hurlers expected to throw a similar number of innings. High-end closers on good teams gain value in a shortened season. Expanded rosters could mean even fewer at-bats for platoon players.
However, one draft note that remains intact no matter the length of the season is the need to attack the first base position early. If you don’t, you could be in trouble.
There is no doubt that power is abundant in this day and age. There were 58 major league hitters who smacked 30-plus home runs last season, and it was the unheralded Twins who actually led the league in long balls.
But unlike years past, just 12 of those 58 were first basemen, and of those 12, Max Muncy is better served in fantasy as a second baseman, Dan Vogelbach is a borderline option and, unfortunately, we are not able to rely on Trey Mancini just yet, as we await information regarding his medical condition.
The names haven’t really changed at the position from year-to-year, so in addition to the lack of depth at first, the average draft position (ADP) continues to rise for most, if not all the players you need or want for your team.
As of April 1, eight first basemen have an ADP inside the top 100, which puts them all off the board by the end of the eighth round in a standard 12-team league. Seven of those eight are actually off the board before the end of the sixth round and five of them before the fifth.
Can you get away with waiting until Round 11 to grab someone like Carlos Santana? Sure, you can. Santana, Yuli Gurriel and Edwin Encarnacion are all considered mid-round selections. If you’re really brazen, you could even wait on someone like Luke Voit or Christian Walker. The problem is, waiting for one of them could leave you without anyone of value.
With the ADP decline we are witnessing among starting pitching, offense is starting to be attacked heavier than we have seen in the past few years. Your elites such as Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole continue to be early-round selections, but hurlers such as Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito and Chris Paddack are seeing a drop in draft position, and those picks are now being focused on offensive prowess.
Yes, there is power to be had in a number of places, but losing out on a top first baseman may be a tough hill to climb in this truncated 2020 season. Grab one while you can and don’t look back. You’ll thank yourself come the end of the year.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at Fantasy-Alarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 5-7 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball advice.