If you think you know everything that’s going to happen in this week’s NFL draft and how it will go down you don’t. Neither do NFL general managers, coaches and scouts. The NFL draft is one of the biggest crapshoots in sports, and the current coronavirus crisis, which has squashed the private pro days the prospects might have had and prevented teams from arranging visits with prospects, has made the process even more unpredictable.
With all that said, I’ll take a shot on five predictions on things you might not think will happen in this 2020 NFL Draft:
1. The Jets will draft a a receiver, not left tackle, in the first round
Most draft prognosticators have the Jets taking one of the top left tackles available with their 11th overall pick, meaning Andrew Thomas from Georgia or Mekhi Becton from Louisville. Its no secret the Jets are in need of offensive line help, particularly to protect the blind side of franchise quarterback Sam Darnold. Jets general manager Joe Douglas, a former high school and college offensive lineman, and has made his intentions clear this offseason that upgrading the offensive line is a priority.
But whether one of the top left tackles will be available when the Jets pick at No. 11, based on many of the mock drafts being published, is in question. Most of the mock drafts have a run on quarterbacks and tackles through the first 10 picks, leaving the Jets with the pick of a litter of top-flight receivers at No. 11. Darnold, in his two NFL seasons, has never had a true No. 1, go-to receiver. This is the Jets chance to give him that difference-maker receiver. That could be Okahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, Alabama’s Henry Ruggs or Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy.
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2. Tua Tagovailoa will be the biggest name that falls down the draft board
The Alabama quarterback has been the most polarizing figure in this draft. Some analysts believe that had it not been for his injury issues in college, he would be the No. 1 overall pick. There are others who believe he remains injury-prone, plays smaller than his size and might be overwhelmed by NFL defenses.
Former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer, who now works with collegiate prospects, has gone on record in calling Tagovailoa “the single best prospect I have ever been around, I have ever studied.”
Tagovailoa’s Alabama coach Nick Saban warned NFL teams not to make the same mistake he made when evaluating Drew Brees 14 years ago when he was the Miami Dolphins coach, dismissing him because of injury issues in college.
“We failed Drew Brees on the physical; that’s why he’s not Miami’s quarterback,” Saban told the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. “The sky’s the limit (with Tagovailoa). I don’t think any of the questions with Tua have to do with his ability to throw the ball and be effective.”
Nevertheless, that sentiment is not shared by many others who’s scouted him.
Former Jets and Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum has said on ESPN that “it would be irresponsible to take him in the top 10.’’
Fortunately for Tagovailoa, because this draft is being done remotely there is no green room, so he won’t have to be on camera every time a team passes on him (remember Aaron Rodgers).
3. The Dolphins will not draft a quarterback with the fifth overall pick
Everyone associated with the draft has the Dolphins taking either Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert or Tagovailoa with the No 5 overall pick, which is the first of three first-round picks they own.
Look for the Dolphins instead to stun the draft and take either one of the top tackles (Tristan Wirfs from Iowa or Jedrick Wills from Alabama) or one of the top available defensive players with the fifth overall pick (perhaps dynamic linebacker/safety playmaker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson). Then look for the Dolphins to use their No. 18 and No. 26 selections to trade up in the first round and take a quarterback, perhaps Utah State’s Jordan Love or even Tagovialoa if they can get to wherever he falls to.
4. Giants trade out of the No. 4 overall spot and gain more picks
Giants general manager Dave Gettleman made it clear when he spoke to reporters last week that he was open for business as far as trading out of the No. 4 spot. Gettleman is less prone to smokescreens than he is to simply doing what he says he’s going to do. We have seen that with both of his first-round selections the past two years, running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones. Give Gettleman this: He does not lack in conviction.
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Look for him to do what he said he was all in on doing — trading back in the first round to collect some draft capital in the middle rounds so he can address the depth issues at some positions. In the meantime, perhaps the Giants can still land a tackle, Josh Jones from USC, or a top defensive player like LSU edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson or South Carolina disruptive defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw later in the first round while collecting more picks.
5. Chargers don’t take a quarterback in the first round and the Jaguars see Herbert fall in their lap
Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn has made it clear he loves Tyrod Taylor, whom he coached in Buffalo. So the Chargers pass on one of the collegiate quarterbacks at No. 6 overall and address their defense, taking a disruptor like Isaiah Simmons or Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown in an effort to try to combat AFC West kingpin, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.