I don’t know whether Henrik Lundqvist can reclaim the No. 1 job in nets from Igor Shesterkin when (and if) the Rangers reconvene at some point late next month or in early July.
But I do know that David Quinn and the coaching staff would be making a mistake if they enter camp with minds that closed in the middle of March in the aftermath of the NHL hitting the pause button due to coronavirus concerns.
And I also know that The King, given what almost certainly would become his final shot at earning playing time for meaningful games while wearing the Blueshirt, would be up for the competition against Shesterkin and Alex Georgiev.
And up for the competition in the best-of-five qualifying round against his cousins from Carolina, those Candy Canes who voted against the NHL’s 24-team return-to-play format because, in the words of player rep Jordan Martinook, “it kind of limits our odds.”
Of course, so does playing against Lundqvist.
So does playing against the Rangers.
Let’s set the stage a bit before detailing Lundqvist’s historical dominance over the ‘Canes. Carolina was in seventh place when the season paused, tied in points for the first wild card with Columbus, one point ahead of the ninth-place Islanders, two points ahead of the Rangers and three points ahead of the Panthers.
The ‘Canes had played two games fewer than the Jackets and the Blueshirts, one fewer than the Islanders and the same number of matches as the Puddy Tats. If the league had gone into its pause a week earlier, Carolina would have been in ninth place. Yea, right, odds.
Let’s skip over Lundqvist’s lifetime 33-12-1 mark against Carolina through which he recorded a .934 save percentage and 2.00 GAA when he was young and younger and for the most part playing for contenders. Let us instead focus on the Swede’s work against the ‘Canes over the last two seasons while playing behind young, rebuilding squads.
Last season: 2-1 with a .964 save pct. and 1.34 GAA.
This season: 3-0 with a .947 save pct. and 2.33 GAA.
Thus, at ages 36 and 37 (before his March 2, 2020, 38th birthday): 5-1 with a .955 save pct. and 1.84 GAA.
Lundqvist stole games from the Hurricanes the last two seasons. That’s what he did.
On Nov. 7 of this season, the Rangers were outshot 47-19 in Raleigh, out-attempted at five-on-five by 79-33 for a Corsi rating of 28.97, and yet won the game, 4-2.
On Nov. 27, at the Garden, the Rangers were outshot 43-25, out-attempted at five-on-five by 60-37 and won the game, 3-2.
And one month later, Dec. 27 at MSG, the Rangers were outshot 42-24, out-attempted at five-on-five by 53-30, and won the game, 5-3.
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The Blueshirts completed the four-game series sweep in Carolina on Feb. 21, with Shesterkin in nets for the 5-2 victory in which the Rangers outshot the home team 36-29 and were just an attempt below dead-even at five-on-five.
Now, the ‘Canes throw the puck at the net from anyplace and at any time in the offensive zone. Their puck possession supremacy in the three games against Lundqvist — that represented three of the Blueshirts’ seven worst Corsi scores of the season — may not be entirely a coincidence given the combination of the Swede’s growing penchant for leaving rebounds and his weakness handling the puck. Those most certainly are considerations for Quinn.
But it doesn’t matter anymore that Lundqvist barely played the final eight weeks of the season. Rust is not an issue. It matters only how he plays in training camp. It only matters how Shesterkin and Georgiev play in camp.
There are mountains to climb before any of this becomes a reality. The virus, and neither the NHL nor NHLPA, is in control. The league and union have heavy lifting ahead in negotiating pandemic-related rules of the road where players will be largely sequestered; rules of engagement on the ice; and CBA-related matters including how to deal with the players’ massive escrow burden that, we’re told, will be diminished by seven percent if in fact the tournament is played in full.
But if the league can get from here to there, then the Rangers will have decisions to make and the most critical is the identity of the starting netminder. Shesterkin, who has spent the pause in Florida, will enter as the incumbent, and that’s fine. But Lundqvist, who has been skating and taking shots in Sweden, has the pedigree. He deserves the chance.
This isn’t a fable. This might not have the storybook ending that I, in fact, mused about weeks ago. But the Rangers would be making a mistake not to turn camp into an open competition for the No. 1 job.
And the Game 1 start against the Candy Canes.