For Joe Biden, these are the best of days. Riding high in the polls, he has a long list of Democrats scrambling to be his running mate, while others offer themselves for plum cabinet posts.
Media supporters are so confident of his victory that they are coming out of the woodwork to advise him to skip the three presidential debates.
Somewhere, some member of the Deep State is probably sneaking around the White House, measuring the curtains.
It is an astonishing turnabout for the vice president. Recall that his best debate performances were mediocre, and he did so badly in the first primaries that going into South Carolina, the smart money said he had to win big or go home.
Yet here he is, with a comfortable lead over Donald Trump — and almost exactly where Hillary Clinton was four years ago.
On Aug. 4, 2016, Clinton led Trump by nearly 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. That same metric now has Biden up by 7.4 points.
With apologies to Yogi Berra, if Biden isn’t careful, America could wake up in November with that déjà vu feeling all over again.
Just as military generals prepare to fight the last war, political consultants are prone to repeat the same errors that led to defeat before. The big one here is that Biden can play it safe, stay in his basement bunker, and take the oath next January.
For example, Biden has answered questions from the press just twice this summer, and the media obliged him with softball questions. It is notable that Chris Wallace of Fox News, a notoriously tough interview, recently grilled President Trump on his Sunday show, and then followed with an invitation to Biden that was promptly rejected.
The most fanciful part of the hidin’ Biden fantasies is the newest — that he can skip the debates and still get elected. I don’t see how that works.
For one thing, if there is anything voters, and Trump, can smell, it’s fear. And the mere entertaining of the idea that Biden could break with tradition that goes back nearly half a century and take a pass on face-to-face showdowns with his opponent may masquerade as strategy, but it is a sign of fear, plain and simple.
It is the fear that Biden will be unmasked as mentally unfit to be president. His deficiencies are not a secret to those who know him, and general-election voters have a right to see them clearly before they make their final choice for the presidency.
So far, Biden’s team hasn’t suggested he won’t debate Trump, but it is almost certainly something they have thought about. It’s even possible they have given a silent approval to the media Praetorian Guard floating the trial balloon to see if it flies. As of now, it’s still flying, unmolested by any hostile fire from other top Democrats. Where are Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi? Where is the Democratic National Committee? Where is Barack Obama on this one?
Their silence shows they, too, want to know if the no-show ruse will work. After all, they, too, must suspect that Biden cannot go for three 90-minute encounters with Trump and emerge intact.
Think what that means: It means the Biden campaign and the entire establishment of the Democratic Party are prepared to foist an impaired man into the Oval Office, uncertain that he can fulfill his duties. Trump Derangement Syndrome has done some strange things to people, but this one takes the cake.
In reality, if it became widely understood among independent voters that the insiders wanted Biden to skip the debates because they knew he wasn’t up to them, that would almost certainly lead to a Trump victory. Put it this way: Why would anyone who isn’t mad with Trump hatred vote for an opponent whose most intimate associates know he can’t do the job?
Although the first televised presidential debate is the most famous — the one between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960 — it wasn’t until 1976, when President Gerald Ford met challenger Jimmy Carter, that debates cemented themselves as a fall requirement. For the last two decades, there have been three each cycle, and one more between running mates.
Some have been enormously consequential, but most matter because they establish a baseline test of competence and readiness. With the coronavirus wreaking havoc on this year’s party conventions, the acceptance speeches by Trump and Biden will lose some of their excitement, giving their debates added significance.
If Biden doesn’t show, that will be conclusive proof that he’s not capable of being president.