US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal proposes converting the American power grid entirely to renewable energy within just 10 years. California and New York have pledged to stop using fossil fuels to make electricity within 25 years or less, even as they shut down carbon-free nuclear plants. And Joe Biden’s $2 trillion “Environmental Justice” platform promises to produce a “100 percent clean energy economy” by 2050.
These plans are all founded on the idea that wind and solar power can smoothly replace our existing energy sources. And that’s simply not true.
Energy plans that rely primarily on wind and solar carry two risks: They drive up the cost of energy, thereby hamstringing the economy. At the same time, they might do surprisingly little to lower carbon emissions.
Here’s the reality: While wind and solar are making growing contributions to our energy mix, there are huge obstacles to them becoming our primary sources of electric power.
For one thing, the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. Therefore, the more wind and solar we add to the grid, the less cost-effective each new panel or turbine becomes. Doubling or tripling the number of turbines available doesn’t help much on days when the wind isn’t gusting. And using batteries to back up a grid that’s mostly powered by wind and solar is not yet feasible on a large scale.
A recent study showed that attempting to power the grid mostly with wind and solar would be unnecessarily expensive. Renewable sources can play a major role, the report concluded, but they would struggle to get the job done on their own.
“You still need other low-carbon sources to complete the clean energy lineup,” says that study’s co-author, Jesse Jenkins, an energy systems engineer and assistant professor at Princeton University.
So what comes next? Scientists and political leaders — including many conservatives — recognize that the carbon dioxide released by these fuels poses a threat to the world’s climate.
Fortunately, there are several promising low-carbon energy technologies on the horizon. These have the potential to fight climate change while still providing affordable energy, and boosting — not crippling — economic growth:
Next-Generation Nuclear
Sometime next year, crews should arrive in southern Idaho to begin building a new type of nuclear power plant. Instead of housing one or two enormous reactors, as today’s plants do, it will eventually have a dozen miniature reactors, standing side by side.
Known as Small Modular Reactors, or SMRs, these compact powerhouses will each be about the size of a farm silo. And, unlike today’s reactors, SMRs will be built in a factory, then delivered by truck and simply bolted together on site. In theory, this should mean better quality control and lower costs.
“The design is extremely simple,” says Jose Reyes, founder the Oregon-based firm NuScale, which is building the Idaho project. The small size and simplicity of these reactors makes them extremely safe, he says. If something were to go wrong, they’d simply shut down without the need for human intervention.
NuScale is just one of dozens of entrepreneurial startups designing innovative small reactors. The Silicon Valley-based Oklo, for example, is building a groundbreaking “micro-reactor” that runs on recycled fuel and would be entirely self-contained in one small building. As exotic as Oklo’s and other new designs sound, these next-gen reactors promise to be elegantly simple and extremely safe.
Still, some of today’s full-size nuclear plants are facing economic headwinds. Will there be a market for these pint-sized reactors? Quite likely, yes, says Jacopo Buongiorno, a professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT.
Many coal-fired power plants are shutting down, he notes. “If you replaced those with small reactors you could take advantage of the existing grid and site infrastructure.” These fleets of SMRs could provide flexible, reliable power to back up the fluctuating flows from wind and solar.
Forecast: Support for advanced nuclear power is one of the rare issues where Republicans and (at least some) Democrats come together. A number of bills to bootstrap the industry are moving through Congress. Under both Obama and Trump, the US Department of Energy has strongly backed nuclear research. Despite pushback from the Democratic Party’s left flank, presidential hopeful Joe Biden’s platform includes advanced nuclear as a tool in the fight against climate change.
While it is too soon to know if these new designs will be competitive, Buongiorno says, the early signs are promising: “The combination of nuclear, solar and wind looks to be the most cost-effective model for deep decarbonization of the power grid.”
‘Stripping’ carbon from fossil fuels
Many climate activists believe we have to eliminate all fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. But what if we could harness the benefits of fossil fuels, without sending their harmful emissions into the atmosphere?
That’s the promise of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Several technologies exist that can strip most of the carbon out of fossil fuels, either before or after they are burned.
Once the carbon dioxide is removed, it can be used in other industrial processes, or even pumped deep underground. It sounds counterintuitive, but experts say certain deep geologic formations can safely store huge quantities of CO2 gas, essentially forever.
CCS looks particularly promising when paired with natural gas. Fracking has made gas plentiful and cheap. Power plants running on natural gas — but capturing most of its carbon — could nimbly supplement wind and solar.
A recent study from Columbia University showed that CCS could also reduce emissions from heavy industries, which currently produce over 20 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases. Many manufacturing processes — such as making cement and chemicals — require enormous quantities of heat, which is usually produced by burning fossil fuels. Reducing carbon emissions from those industries could have a huge impact
Forecast: Capturing carbon isn’t cheap. And the infrastructure to pipe carbon dioxide to areas where it can be pumped underground is just getting started. Industries will need well-crafted incentives to help make CCS attractive. A bipartisan energy bill, which includes money for CCS research, is currently stalled in the Senate.
Hydrogen Power
Hydrogen is the cleanest type of fuel — when consumed it releases nothing but water vapor. Cars, trucks and even airplane prototypes that can run on hydrogen already exist.
An abundant, affordable supply of hydrogen could help us start phasing out gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel — which together produce almost a third of US carbon emissions. Hydrogen could also replace some fossil fuels used in industry.
It sounds easy: Hydrogen is the most plentiful material in the universe. But it doesn’t normally exist in pure form on our planet. Instead, it’s combined with other elements: with oxygen, it forms water; with carbon, it creates methane, the main component of natural gas.
Splitting water or methane molecules to release the hydrogen they contain takes a lot of energy. And that’s where new, clean sources of electricity come in: On sunny days solar farms often produce more electricity than the grid needs. What if some of that excess was used to produce hydrogen? Advanced nuclear reactors could also be put to work producing the fuel.
Today, most hydrogen is produced from natural gas. If the carbon released in that process can be captured and safely stored, that’s another way to turn our abundant gas supplies into low-carbon fuel.
Forecast: Though there are a few thousand hydrogen vehicles already on the road — and a few dozen hydrogen filling stations — the path toward a “hydrogen economy” won’t be easy.
Converting industries and transportation networks to run on hydrogen will involve huge infrastructure investments. Hydrogen also takes energy to transport and store. So deploying it widely will require ample supplies of clean electricity — which, in turn, will depend on progress in renewables, nuclear and CCS.
Fusion Power
For decades, scientists have dreamed of harnessing nuclear fusion — the process that powers our sun — to make electricity here on earth. And for decades that goal has remained just out of reach. (The scene in “Back to the Future,” in which Doc’s DeLorean is powered by a device called Mr. Fusion, has, sadly, not yet become reality.)
But today, a new wave of nuclear fusion research shows promise.
Fusion reactions happen when two atomic nuclei are forced to join — or fuse — together, releasing enormous amounts of energy in the process. This can only happen in conditions of unimaginably high pressure and temperature. After years of frustration, researchers are making progress in achieving those conditions.
The most exciting advances aren’t coming from huge government-funded programs. Instead, small, entrepreneurial startups are leading the way. And they are attracting serious investment.
Amazon’s Jeff Bezos is backing the Canadian startup General Fusion, which says it is close to building a demonstration plant. Other well-funded startups include the MIT spinoff Commonwealth Power and California-based TAE Technologies.
“The idea of commercial fusion power is no longer a joke,” says MIT’s Buongiorno, though he adds that these companies have yet to prove they can produce affordable energy. If successful, however, fusion would be the holy grail of energy sources: non-polluting, safe and nearly limitless.
Forecast: Fusion power has always been a long-shot bet. But the odds are looking better as new companies explore a bigger range of technological approaches. If any one of these startups cracks the formula for affordable fusion, many of today’s energy sources will be on the path to obsolescence
So What’s Next?
“We need to be expanding the electrical supply, not just replacing today’s production,” notes Princeton’s Jenkins.
Ample, cheap electricity will help us start replacing fossil fuel for home heating, transportation and industry. It will also help our economy thrive.
Too many climate activists advocate for limiting economic growth and reducing our consumption. But with the right mix of energy technologies we can cut our emissions while also developing vital new industries.
That’s why continued research into nuclear, CCS, hydrogen — and, yes, wind and solar, too — is so vital. If fusion power succeeds as well, that will simply supercharge our progress.
We don’t need to choose between environmental responsibility and economic growth. Why not have both?
James B. Meigs is the co-host of the “How Do We Fix It?” podcast and the former editor-in-chief of Popular Mechanics.