Instead of dressing to the nines and getting ready for a big night out in Brooklyn, this year’s NBA draft class will be at home attending the event of their lives virtually.
Rather than being a few weeks into their first regular season, which would be the case in any other year, they still don’t know their destinations. Once they do, there will be two weeks to prepare for training camp more than eight months after most of them have played their last game.
There’s never been an NBA draft quite like Wednesday’s. Mystery shrouds the event. Uncertainty reigns. Chaos could ensue.
“It’s pretty close to unprecedented given it’s so far from when we last saw these guys play,” ESPN draft guru Mike Schmitz said on a Tuesday Zoom call.
Unprecedented is a good way to describe this entire year, and certainly an apt way to summarize the draft process. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no NCAA Tournament, no real combine and workouts were agent-controlled with visits to team facilities outlawed. Each team was given 10 workouts to attend, where each was allowed to send up to three executives.
It has created questions throughout the entire draft, starting at the top, where LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman and Anthony Edwards are all considered contenders to get taken No. 1 by the Timberwolves. There is no surefire star, no Zion Williamson or Ja Morant in this draft, which could lead to a flurry of trades.
“I think what we’ve learned with the draft is the second you think you know something is going to be one way, it’s maybe the other,” Schmitz said. “I don’t want to say for sure teams are just going to be swinging and missing, but it’s important to keep in mind that we’re dealing with 18-, 19-, 20-year-old young men who can very easily change over the course of eight, nine months.
“Some of these players are going to look incredibly different than they did during their college season.”
Scouts and analysts believe what this class lacks in potential star power, it makes up for in balance, that it is deep in role players, in particular the ever-popular 3-and-D wings. But because there is a microscopic difference between so many prospects, and fewer events to evaluate them, it could produce more mistakes. One NBA scout doesn’t see much of a difference between a mid first-round pick and an early second-rounder.
“In a regular year, there’s the availability of March, April, May, June. That’s missing,” the scout said. “I can’t touch those four months. Say what you want, but something happens in those four months.
“I don’t know where your assurances are coming from. You’re more hoping that what everybody is telling you is true.”
Matt Babcock, a former agent and current draft analyst, said he believes the parity in this draft will lead to teams going for fit more than value, playing it safe instead of swinging for the fences.
A second NBA scout said he thinks there are advantages, though. The extra months have enabled teams to be more thorough in getting a handle on a prospect’s personality, strengths and weaknesses. Of course, that could lead to overthinking, because it has been so long since almost all of these players have played in a game. There are only so many times you can watch the same film.
That is obviously all worth monitoring once the season begins. Rookies won’t have the benefit of summer league. They will have to get to know their new teammates, new coaches, and new surroundings in such a short period of time. The transition from the draft to training camp to the season could be a lot to handle for some.
“I would say teams are going to have to be really patient,” the second scout said. “You’re going to have to temper your expectations. Some guys may have gotten a lot better. Some guys may have stayed the same.
“Just like it was with Miami in the bubble, we’ll find out who really loves basketball. This will be the ultimate test.”