Home team in Caps
Eagles (+3.5) over BROWNS: Philadelphia has gotten healthier in key skill positions than it has been in a while — with the return of Zack Ertz, Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery — so it should be smartly positioned to stage rebound against a Browns defense that has been flattered by Cleveland’s markedly windy conditions in recent weeks.
Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS: This is more an anti-Bolts play than anything else, given the Chargers’ sustained seasonal pattern of playing to the level of their competition. With a representative clan of receivers on the field, Joe Flacco remains capable of showing to better advantage.
Falcons (+5) over SAINTS: The hosts are making a near-term quarterback move to Taysom Hill in this spot, over Jameis Winston. Given Atlanta’s improved play over and above their underperforming September, won’t be at all surprised at a close call in the latest edition of this spirited rivalry.
Lions (+1.5) over PANTHERS: Teddy Bridgewater is likely out at quarterback for Carolina, and the status of Matthew Stafford’s throwing thumb is an open question, but expect the Lions’ ground game to represent this week, and broad overall performance improvement out of Detroit has been encouraging,
Patriots (-2.5) over TEXANS: Compelled to take the established class, even as tangible road faves, against a Texans squad led by Deshaun Watson. Watson has failed to rise to last year’s standards, and we’re reluctant to bet on a near-term reversal against Bill Belichick.
JAGUARS (+9) over Steelers: The market has adjusted against us, but still compelled to lean toward this sly dog, given Pittsburgh’s habit of underperforming in recent decades against foes they know they can handle. Young quarterback Jake Luton has performed adequately for the home side. Not eager to endorse either side, at market.
Bengals (+1.5) over WASHINGTON: We respect Alex Smith, but given the Washington talent pool, going to look toward the Bengals plus anything against this host and its underperforming running game. Cincinnati rookie Joe Burrow has impressed us markedly and has earned our confidence.
Titans (+6) over RAVENS: Baltimore showed us plenty in its second half against the Colts two weeks ago, but in this league, will look for Tennessee to exert maximum effort in their quest to remain in the thick of the AFC postseason scramble. Maintain highest respect for visitor’s coaching staff.
Packers (+2) over COLTS: The Packers are in comfy shape within the NFC North and boast an easier schedule in terms of attaining the best record within the conference vs. the Saints. What’s more, we’ll take Aaron Rodgers in his current form over Philip Rivers.
Miami (-3.5) over DENVER: Temperature forecasts in the upper 40s for this are good news for the invaders. The Dolphins have been a midseason revelation behind Tua Tagovailoa, with the defense supplying the signal-caller with field position and support since their sluggish start. Drew Lock needs to pick it up for the Broncos.
COWBOYS (+7) over Vikings: Not thrilled about Andy Dalton’s form leading the ’Boys since his activation, but off his recovery from a concussion and COVID-19 issues, expect he’ll start (per coach Mike McCarthy), and can envision his side hanging tough against a Minnesota team we deem overrated.
Chiefs (-8) over RAIDERS: Traditional rival Las Vegas was armed and ready at Arrowhead in the first meeting and hung up 40 in stunning upset as a double-digit dog. That is K.C.’s lone loss, and expect well-endowed defending champs to get their pound of flesh.
Monday
Rams (+4) over BUCCANEERS: The visitors have endured their share of time-zone travel — having gone to Buffalo, Philly, D.C and Miami before this. L.A. is the real thing, with a more-than-respectable pass defense and a diversified offense — including a legitimate air game triggered by Jared Goff. They have Tom Brady to beat, but we’re not willing to pay for the brand name, here.
Last week: 4-8-1
Season: 66-66-6