The NFL Draft is like Christmas for football nerds: a brief, glorious spectacle for fans in the middle of a bleak offseason, where every team has renewed hope, if only for a few hours. Even Jets fans can come out of the draft with a reason to believe, before getting their spirits crushed once again in early September.
It’s also a great time for degenerates. For the first time in months, and the last time for months, you can spend several straight hours betting on the NFL. Not actual football, mind you, but the anticipation can be just as dramatic as that of a game.
With how connected NFL media has become, it’s becoming increasingly possible to win money on the draft. Here are a few prop bets we like ahead of Thursday’s first round (all odds from BetMGM Sportsbook):
Micah Parsons draft position, over 13.5: -120
If you had asked me to pencil in Parsons’ draft position a few months ago, I’d have said he was a lock for the top 10. The middle linebacker has excellent sideline-to-sideline speed and should be able to step in as a starter right away. But reports have had him sliding down teams’ boards due to maturity concerns, and he was named in a disturbing lawsuit that alleged hazing of younger players.
The only team that poses a real threat to draft Parsons before the 14th pick is the Broncos at No. 9. Vic Fangio loves having a rangy linebacker (Roquan Smith, Patrick Willis, NaVarro Bowman), and Parsons fits the mold. But Denver has other needs, cornerback among them, and both Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn provide similar pedigree without the red flags. Denver could also take a quarterback (they’re favored to do so on BetMGM at -110), or trade back with a QB-needy team if one falls. Expect Parsons to slide a bit on Thursday night.
Packers position of first drafted player, wide receiver: +200
They have to do it this year, right? Green Bay infamously traded up to select Jordan Love with their first pick of the 2020 draft instead of selecting a receiver, a position of need in a potentially historic class. In 2021, they draft one spot earlier, wide receiver is still a position of need, and this class could be just as good as last year’s.
Picking at No. 29, Green Bay is in a slot where there could be a run on pass catchers: Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore, LSU’s Terrace Marshall Jr. and Florida’s Kadarius Toney have all been mocked to the end of the first round. If for some reason Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman falls to this pick (more on him later), expect the Packers to pounce.
If you don’t think they’ll draft a receiver, another possibility is cornerback – currently at +350. Kevin King is only under contract for a year, and hasn’t exactly played himself into Green Bay’s long-term plans. You can even take both of these bets and come out in the green if one of them hits.
Jaycee Horn draft position, Under 12.5: -115
This pick is betting on two things: that the Cowboys (No. 10) don’t get greedy and take another offensive player, and that the Eagles (No. 12) don’t trade out of their pick. Every mock draft has Dallas taking a corner, either Horn or Patrick Surtain (whose stranglehold on the unanimous CB1 slot slipped after Horn’s electric pro day). Reports say the Eagles have been calling, but they already traded down, and Howie Roseman always calls.
Philadelphia could take a wide receiver if DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle are still on the board, but the Broncos and Panthers are both CB-needy as well. The Giants (No. 11) have also inquired about trading down, and that’s prime corner territory. Horn is an elite prospect, and there are plenty of chances for him to go off the board before pick 12. It would shock no one if he’s the first defensive player selected.
Rashod Bateman draft position, Under 26.5: +120
It feels like the consensus fourth-best wide receiver should be off the board well before pick No. 26, so I had to double check to make sure it wasn’t a typo to have this at plus odds. But indeed, it was not. So naturally, I started second-guessing myself. Is it possible that enough teams who select before this pick don’t need a receiver, and Bateman falls?
No, not really. The Bears (No. 20), Colts (No. 21), Titans (No. 22), Jets (No. 23) and Jaguars (No. 25) are all in the market. The Ravens, at No. 27, feel like the absolute last place for Bateman to land (and are rumored to be in on him), which, yes, is a loser here. But with two first-rounders, they could easily move up a few picks to pass those other teams.
Still, though, +120 seems fishy? Vegas always knows something we don’t, right? Ehh. Perhaps not this time. Don’t overthink this one.
Justin Fields No. 3 overall pick: +500
I know, I know. You all heard the news that the 49ers have narrowed their pick down to either Mac Jones or Trey Lance. Guess what? It’s lyin’ season. A majority of the “rumors” you hear coming from the media this week will be deliberate smokescreens from front offices, designed to confuse the other 31 teams in the draft.
Why would the 49ers be putting out smokescreens if they theoretically have their pick of QBs, you may ask? We all assume Zach Wilson is locked into the Jets at No. 2 overall. But what if Kyle Shanahan, who mentored the entire Jets coaching staff, started singing the praises of Fields weeks before the draft? Would New York start to think, hmm, maybe if our old boss loves this guy, we should take a deeper look into him?
It’s unlikely, sure. Jones or Lance is probably the pick here. But +500 reflects that unlikeliness. And with every rumor we hear about those other guys, the odds should go up further. Maybe don’t put your entire life savings on this bet, but I see no reason not to sprinkle a few bucks on it.