Andrew Yang and Eric Adams are in a virtual dead heat in the latest poll for the June 22 Democratic mayoral primary, where likely voters’ top concerns are crime rates and public safety.
Yang, the former presidential candidate, edges out Adams by one point with 19 percent of respondents listing him as their first choice in the new Manhattan Institute survey conducted in mid-May.
But Adams, the Brooklyn borough president and retired cop, ultimately edges out Yang by four points, with 52 percent of the vote in the city’s new ranked-choice system.
Ranked-choice voting allows New Yorkers to mark their top five candidates on ballots. If no one captures 50 percent of the vote in the primary, then the candidate with the fewest No. 1 picks is eliminated and those votes are parceled out according to the remaining order of preference. The process continues until two contenders remain. The one with more votes ultimately wins.
The Manhattan Institute poll predicts a lengthy process of 11 rounds of ballot recalculations resulting in an Adams win.
Almost half of respondents, or 46 percent, said crime rates and public safety were their top two priorities. Those issues were followed by housing at 35 percent and the economy at 30 percent.
Fifty percent of voters have a favorable view of the NYPD and just 18 percent want to see fewer cops in their neighborhoods.
Both Yang and Adams have said they do not support defunding the NYPD and want to increase patrols in the subway system.
After the two frontrunners, former Sanitation Commission Kathryn Garcia is the first pick of 11 percent of likely voters followed by civil rights attorney and former MSNBC host Maya Wiley with 10 percent, although Wiley comes in third in a ranked-choice simulation.
“Garcia, fresh off her New York Times endorsement, outpaces the rest of the field as the candidate likely voters have become most interested in learning about over the past few weeks,” writes Manhattan Institute’s Michael Hendrix in an analysis of the May 14 to 17 survey.
Wiley, meanwhile, appears to have gotten a boost from her performance in the first televised debate between the candidates, a remote NY1 event where she appeared to use her former news channel skills to her advantage in the crowded Zoom setup.
City comptroller Scott Stringer is the biggest loser in the poll, slipping from near the top of the pack to fifth with 8 percent following sexual misconduct claims by a former associate. Ex-Citigroup executive Ray McGuire is tied with nonprofit leader Dianne Morales at 6 percent and former Obama housing secretary Shaun Donovan brings up the rear at 4 percent.
With less than five weeks before the primary, 14 percent of likely voters still can’t decide who should replace Mayor de Blasio at City Hall in the poll but that is down from other polls that had undecideds as high as 23 percent.
Wiley is bullish that she’ll be able to capture at least some of those undecided voters and perhaps pull supporters away from rivals based on her showing at the field’s first debate last week.
“New Yorkers are just tuning into this race now and what they saw at the debate was the only candidate in Maya Wiley with management and government experience to bring our city back and make it even better.
“This poll clearly shows not only can Maya win with a clear path to victory– she will,” a Wiley spokeswoman told The Post.
Wiley was the second pick after Adams among the quarter of respondents who watched the debate.