Eric Adams leads primary race, with Wiley, Garcia on his heels, NY Post poll reveals
Just days out from the Democratic mayoral primary, Eric Adams still leads the field, according to a New York Post poll of 1,000 likely Democratic voters.
The survey, which was conducted in conjunction with pollster McLaughlin & Associates from June 10 to 15, found that 21.3 percent of respondents ranked the former NYPD captain and current Brooklyn borough president as their first choice.
Another 16.5 percent selected the progressive Maya Wiley, a former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio, as their top choice, narrowly edging out the 16.2 percent who ranked former Sanitation and NYCHA head Kathryn Garcia first.
Pollster John McLaughlin cautioned that while Adams may be in the driver’s seat, Wiley and Garcia loom large in his rearview mirror down the stretch to what could be a photo finish, particularly with more than a fifth of respondents still undecided.
“You’re heading into a close three-way race and any one of the three can win,” McLaughlin said. “Adams is in the lead but it’s a tenuous lead.
“Maya Wiley has gotten a lot of momentum from the AOC endorsement,” he continued, referring to far-left Bronx-Queens US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who threw her progressive political weight behind Wiley earlier this month. “It’s a liberal primary.”
Of the 1,000 respondents, 5.2 percent had already cast their ballots in early voting at the time they were polled.
Adams’ success, McLaughlin said, will hinge on maintaining his base among black voters while peeling off undecided Hispanic voters as well as white New Yorkers, who are trending in favor of Garcia and also the more liberal Wiley.
Among respondents who ranked Adams first, 38.5 identified as black, 26.3 percent were residents of his home borough of Brooklyn, 24.5 percent were Bronx residents and 22.7 percent Queens residents.
Those rates plunge among white voters and among voters in Manhattan and Staten Island.
But working in favor of Adams — who has positioned himself as the field’s law-and-order candidate — more respondents named reducing crime as the single factor that would influence their vote the most.
Some 20.7 percent of respondents remained undecided, meaning the battle for their ballots could prove decisive.
Of those potential make-or-break voters, nearly a third are Hispanic, and 30 percent are black.
“Hispanic voters are an important part of the final outcome,” said McLaughlin. “They haven’t coalesced around anyone.”
Businessman Andrew Yang, an early front-runner in the race, was the first choice for just 9.6 percent of respondents.
No other candidate topped the 7 percent mark.
Still, in New York’s first year with ranked choice voting, supporters of longshots like Dianne Morales, Shaun Donovan and Ray McGuire could prove influential, McLaughlin noted.
“Eric Adams benefits as the second choice of the more moderate Yang and McGuire voters,” said McLaughlin.
But while Adams could be poised to draw votes as some back-of-the-pack candidates fail to make the cut, Wiley and Garcia could stand to benefit each other, with several respondents who ranked one first slotting the other in second.
It could be the undecided voters, however, who will wield the most power of all.
“[Some] Voters haven’t made choices on their first choice, let alone their second, third, fourth and fifth choices,” said McLaughlin.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
