When you’re one of the four prospects received in a trade in which the return is Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, expectations are likely going to be high.
Josiah Gray entered the season as MLB’s 68th-best prospect, according to Baseball America, after the 6-foot-1, 190-pounder dominated the minors over three seasons, going 14-5 with a 2.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 10.4 strikeouts per nine. That includes going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA, 12.6 strikeouts per nine and a 0.64 WHIP over four appearances (three starts) with Triple-A Oklahoma City this season.
Before being traded to the Nationals, Gray made two appearances (four innings each) for the Dodgers. Though he walked 3.6 per nine while allowing four home runs and a .976 OPS in those outings, there were positives. He limited opponents to a .233 average and struck out 37.1 percent of the batters he faced. Even more impressive was the swings and misses on 21.2 percent of his 156 pitches (for reference of how good this number is, Jacob deGrom was at 21.6 percent).
In his first start for the Nats, Gray only struck out two batters and had a seven percent swinging strike rate, but limited the Phillies to one run on four hits over five innings. He also walked one and gave up a homer.
It’s a small sample size, but Gray is relying too heavily on his mid-90s fastball, throwing it 56.2 percent of the time. He has a 23.4 whiff rate with the pitch, but opponents have hit .259 with four homers against it. He has had more success with his secondary pitches.
Opponents are hitting .286 against Gray’s curveball, but it carries a 50 percent whiff rate and 23.6 percent swinging strike rate. Hitters haven’t been able to touch his slider (.000 average after throwing the pitch 38 times in 13 innings). He has a 45.5 percent whiff rate and a ridiculous 26.3 swinging strike rate with the pitch.
Gray has the ability and will have the opportunity to remain in the Nationals’ rotation. He may be more of a stash for the future, especially in dynasty and keeper leagues, but a solid start against Atlanta on Saturday could make the youngster more appealing to the masses. Now is a good time to buy in.
Gray’s not the only young pitcher with plenty of upside.
The Angels’ Patrick Sandoval took the mound Friday having allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his first 15 appearances. Despite losing three of his past four starts, the 24-year-old maintained a 2.54 ERA, 34-10 strikeout-to-walk rate and a .168 opponent average in that span.
In his first 12 starts, Sandoval was 3-5 with a 3.09 ERA, 10.2 strikeouts per nine, a 1.11 WHIP and .203 opponent average. Though he’s walking 10.1 percent of the batters he faces, his .203 opponent average ranked 17th in the majors among pitchers with a minimum of 70 innings pitched, and his 16.4 percent swinging strike rate ranked fourth. It doesn’t hurt that his FIP (3.99), xFIP (3.62) and xERA (3.34) back up his 3.38 ERA. He should be owned in more than 50 percent of leagues.
Before taking the mound Friday against Milwaukee, the Giants’ Logan Webb had not allowed more than two earned runs in his past four starts. He went 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA, 15-6 strikeout-to-walk rate and .231 opponent average in that stretch, which included two no-decisions against the Dodgers in which he struck out 10 and limited the defending champs to a .158 average over 11 innings.
Webb, 24, has allowed just six runs and a .213 opponent average over six starts since returning from a shoulder injury on July 9. Though he’s far from a strikeout machine and has lasted past the sixth inning once this season, he was the third-most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week.
Big Hits
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Yankees
In his first seven games for the Yankees, he went 8-for-24 (.333) with three homers, four walks and only one strikeout. He had at least one RBI in six of those games, a 1.160 OPS and eight runs scored.
Joe Musgrove, SP, Padres
Won two of his past three starts while maintaining a 1.42 ERA, 20:5 strikeout-to-walk rate and .167 opponent average.
Rafael Ortega, OF, Cubs
Entered Friday with a seven-game hit streak, going 13-for-29 (.448) with four homers, nine RBIs, 10 runs, two stolen bases and a 1.380 OPS.
Hyun Jin Ryu, SP, Blue Jays
The veteran lefty is 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA, 28:4 strikeout-to-walk rate and .241 opponent average over his past five starts.
Big Whiffs
Jordan Lyles, SP, Rangers
Has not won since July 9, going 0-3 with a 6.85 ERA (18 runs over 23 ²/₃ innings) and a .264 opponent average over his past four starts. He has allowed nine homers and a .953 OPS in that span.
Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Padres
In his first seven games in San Diego, he’s 5-for-28 (.179) with an RBI, five runs, a .233 on-base percentage and .448 OPS.
Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals
Allowed 19 runs (18 earned) over his past four starts, while going 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA, seven homers allowed and a .312 opponent average.
J.D. Martinez, OF, Red Sox
Over his past 14 games before Friday, he was 8-for-56 (.143) with only one homer, four RBIs, 16 strikeouts and a .405 OPS.
Check Swings
- After going a disastrous 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA and .321 opponent average over this first two months of the season, the Reds’ Luis Castillo is 5-2 with a 1.91 ERA and .199 opponent average over 12 starts since June 4.
- Entering Friday, Toronto’s George Springer had at least one hit in 15 of his first 19 games since the All-Star break, going 28-for-74 (.378) with eight homers, 16 RBIs, 21 runs, a stolen base, a .434 OBP and 1.258 OPS in that stretch.
- Jameson Taillon, the AL Pitcher of the Month in July, has allowed more than two earned runs in a start only once over his past nine starts, and he’s 6-0 with a 2.35 ERA, 50 strikeouts and .214 opponent average in that span.
- Since being traded to the Rays, Nelson Cruz has looked, well, his age. In his first 10 games, he was 7-for-38 (.184) with two homers, three RBIs, four runs, 12 strikeouts and a .586 OPS.
Team Name of the Week
Genus Alex
