Mark Cannizzaro previews the NFC South as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2021 NFL season.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Bruce Arians
2020 record: 11-5
O/U wins: 12.5
Key additions: LB Joe Tryon, OL Robert Hainsey, RB Giovani Bernard
Key losses: None
First-and-goal: If Tom Brady was so good without having a normal offseason and training camp to prepare for his first season with a new team, how good might he be with all of those things as the Bucs defend their Super Bowl title? Arians said it took 12 games for Brady to become totally comfortable with the Bucs’ offense. What now? Scary prospect. Particularly when the Bucs return all 22 starters from 2020.
Fourth-and-goal: Perhaps the one training camp battle to watch this summer has been that of the backup QB, with second-round draft pick Kyle Trask competing with veteran Blaine Gabbert for the spot behind Brady. Champagne problems. Perhaps the only other issue is whether Antonio Brown does something stupid off the field because, you know, there is a history of that.
Cannizzaro’s call: 14-3. This is as close to a lock as a Super Bowl team as there can be.
2. New Orleans Saints
Coach: Sean Payton
2020 record: 12-4
O/U wins: 8.5
Key additions: TE Nick Vannett, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE Payton Turner, LB Pete Werner, CB Paulson Adebo
Key losses: QB Drew Brees, DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Janoris Jenkins, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Malcolm Brown, WR Emmanuel Sanders, LB Alex Anzalone, TE Jared Cook, TE Josh Hill, LB Kwon Alexander
First-and-goal: Yes, Brees is gone, but the likes of dynamic RB Alvin Kamara and WRs Michael Thomas — out at least the first five games — and Tre’Quan Smith remain for newly-minted starting QB Jameis Winston. Will this group repeat as the NFL’s fourth-ranked offense in 2020? Perhaps not. But Winston has throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season in the NFL, so the potential is there as long as he can keep his turnovers down, which has been an issue his entire career.
Fourth-and-goal: The Saints will hope that Taysom Hill, after being beaten out for the starting QB job, remains the dual-threat he was subbing in and out of the games for Brees. Their defense will be challenged by finding a suitable second starting CB opposite Marshon Lattimore as well as a shortage on the interior DL with David Onyemata suspended the first six games for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
Cannizzaro’s call: 11-6. With the Bucs in the division, everyone else is playing for second place and a wild-card playoff berth. Even without Brees, the Saints will score that.
3. Carolina Panthers
Coach: Matt Rhule
2020 record: 5-11
O/U wins: 7.5
Key additions: QB Sam Darnold, DE Haason Reddick, WR David Moore, TE Dan Arnold, OT Cam Erving, G Pat Elflein, DE Morgan Fox, DT DaQuan Jones, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Jaycee Horn, CB A.J. Bouye
Key losses: WR Curtis Samuel, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Mike Davis, DT Kawann Short, S Tre Boston, OT Russell Okung, DE Stephen Weatherly
First-and-goal: It didn’t work with Bridgewater at QB, so the Panthers hope Darnold resurrecting his failed career with the Jets (13-25 as a starter) with a more talented skill-position group around him will move the franchise forward. The Panthers’ 2019 All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey, who missed 13 games with three separate injuries in 2020, is presumably healthy. Add to that 1,000-yard WRs D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson and Arnold at tight end and maybe Darnold will prove to be the player the Jets thought he was when they picked him third overall in 2018.
Fourth-and-goal: Left tackle is an issue with the team having added Erving in free agency, though he might not be the answer. There have been several other candidates in the mix, including rookie third-round pick Brady Christensen. Replacing the production of the departed Samuel at receiver will be up to David Moore and rookie Terrace Marshall.
Cannizzaro’s call: 9-8. Darnold will be better with the improved talent around him, but the Panthers’ issue is the killer top-heavy division in which they play.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Coach: Arthur Smith
2020 record: 4-12
O/U wins: 7.5
Key additions: WR Tajae Sharpe, RB Mike Davis, S Erik Harris, CB Fabian Moreau, RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, S Duron Harmon, OL Josh Andrews, LB Brandon Copeland
Key losses: WR Julio Jones, C Alex Mack, S Keanu Neal, S Ricardo Allen, DE Allen Bailey, RB Todd Gurley, RB Brian Hill, RB Ito Smith, S Damontae Kazee, OG James Carpenter, QB Matt Schaub
First-and-goal: Well, Matt Ryan remains the starting quarterback. That may a good news/bad news thing for a team that’s in total rebuild mode with a new general manager and coaching staff. Ryan, even at age 36, surely still has some good football left, but the question is whether he’ll have enough talent around him to thrive, particularly since the Falcons traded Jones, their top wide receiver. Defensively, luring coordinator Dean Pees out of retirement is a big deal for Atlanta.
Fourth-and-goal: Who will replace the talented Jones as Ryan’s top target? New starters must also be found in the secondary, running back and center. Protection from the O-line may be an issue as the Falcons try to keep Ryan upright.
Cannizzaro’s call: 5-12. This is a total rebuild despite the fact the starting QB is 36 and there is no heir apparent in place.
