VSiN’s NFL handicapper takes a look at the Over/Under prospects in Sunday’s season openers for the Jets and Giants.
Jets at Panthers
Over 43.5 is on my card this week for the game between the Jets and Panthers. Robert Saleh already has to contend with some key injuries on defense, including the loss of Carl Lawson. Sam Darnold certainly has a lot to prove, and the former USC product and No. 3-overall pick in 2018 has a new lease on life with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Zach Wilson steps into a good situation at the skill positions, and the Jets have really revamped their offensive line over the past couple of years. Everybody will be growing up all at once, but the departure of Adam Gase is about the biggest NFL example of “addition by subtraction” that you could possibly get.
Darnold will have a healthy Christian McCaffrey to go with former Jet Robby Anderson, a high-quality wideout in D.J. Moore, and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. Those are better weapons than he had with the Jets, and he’s also getting a healthy McCaffrey to start the season, a luxury that has rarely been afforded to Panthers quarterbacks.
Both the Jets and Panthers were in the top 10 in missed tackles last season and these skill groups have some burners. Both defenses were also in the bottom eight in completion percentage. The sticks should be moving in this game, and the quarterbacks will have lots of red-zone options in the scoring areas.
Pick: Jets-Panthers Over 44.5
Broncos at Giants
The Broncos lost one of their biggest early-season advantages by being forced to play on the road. Denver has been excellent in the first two weeks of the season when teams go to the Mile High City, but that benefit has been lost for 2021 with two games on the road to open the season.
As a result, I do have a lean toward the Giants +3 and will wait to see if a 3.5 pops somewhere by game time or if a reduced juice +3 pops. Even if that doesn’t happen, the under 41 is a pick in this game.
These two offenses were putrid in the red zone last season, which happens with quarterbacks that make bad decisions. Drew Lock had a 56 percent completion percentage in the red zone last season and Daniel Jones had a 54.2 percent completion rate. The Broncos were 27th in red-zone efficiency last season and the Giants were 31st. My best guess is that neither one of these teams improves all that much in that department this season, and it does not look like it will happen in this game, even with Teddy Bridgewater now starting for Denver in place of Lock.
The Broncos were tops in the league in red-zone defense last season, as opponents scored a touchdown just 47.5 percent of the time. The Giants were second at 50.8 percent. Premium scoring chances look few and far between with these two offenses, and those red zone trips may result in field goals. Turnovers in the red zone or in plus territory are also something I would expect in this game.
Pick: Under 41.