Home teams in CAPS
Bears (+12.5) over BUCCANEERS
Tom Brady’s superior field generalship continues to make the Buccaneers an extraordinarily difficult out for the league’s best teams.
Defense-first Chicago continues to hang its hopes on Khalil Mack and its traditional head-knocking stop-unit tenacity.
Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown, TE Rob Gronkowski absences will hinder the cause, and OLB Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable.
Panthers (-3) over GIANTS
Big Blue have a crying need for significant contributions from major players RB Saquon Barkley, and WRs Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. Without all three, supporting key Giants participants may find their burden too great to bear, after their earlier exploitation of a comparatively easier schedule.
PATRIOTS (-7) over Jets
Pats coach Bill Belichick continues to apparently place special emphasis on defeating the local AFC franchise, to the Jets’ considerable disadvantage. The Pats earlier took out the Jets in North Jersey, thanks to four interceptions served up by rookie Jets QB Zach Wilson. Live and learn.
RAVENS (-6.5) over Bengals
Cincinnati is clearly improved — but given the Bengals are headed into their second of three consecutive road games, we’re compelled to allocate an edge to the rough-riding ground game of Baltimore. Good spots in which to fade Cincinnati aren’t far away. Price seems right.
PACKERS (-8) over Washington
The Football Team has failed to sustain the relative defensive prowess it managed to maintain through the bulk of the 2020 season — leaving additional pressure on the offense to hold up its end of the bargain. Aaron Rodgers and company should manage this assignment without strain, given the superior talent at hand.
TITANS (+5.5) over Chiefs
Tennessee came up huge against the Bills last week — but the Buffalo staff was clearly outcoached by Mike Vrabel and friends. Kansas City is another stout challenge for this home ’dog, but the visitors have a habit of permitting opponents to hang around, and typically continue to do just enough to win and progress. It would take a huge effort for the Chiefs to run off and hide here.
Falcons (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Dynamic scheduling advantage leaves us no choice but to give a long look to the visiting Falcons. Home side has returned from a London engagement to take on Atlanta without a week off — while the visitors are coming off their seasonal bye. It’s hard not to grant Matt Ryan a solid edge in this spot.
RAMS (-16.5) over Lions
Detroit has endured a sustained history of disappointment on trips to the Left Coast for literally decades. Given the Lions’ 2021 seasonal history of sluggish starts (failing to register a first-quarter point in three of their past four outings), Detroit fans are left to hope for a remote come-from-behind backdoor cover.
RAIDERS (-3) over Eagles
Vegas appears to have worked its way past the ennui against the Chargers and Bears which preceded the recent Raiders coaching change. Respect inherent Eagles core of toughness, but the market appears to be offering a cheap price against a foe whose near-term injury issues have presented a sustained obstacle to sustained improvement for Philadelphia. Take what they give you.
CARDINALS (-17) over Texans
A broadly rumored blockbuster player deal involving Houston QB Deshaun Watson hangs over the Texans, with Watson broadly understood to be ticketed for the Dolphins quarterback job. Watch this space, as the Texans look to make the most of their prevailing position in the intermediate term and the Cards strive to maintain perfection.
Colts (+4) over 49ERS
Indianapolis endured a severe defensive cramp earlier this week when key safety Julian Blackmon suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury. The Niners have faced sustained issues trying to overcome lay prices as favorites, so will remain skeptical until some measure of improved “lay” form is established, though QB Jimmy Garoppolo is slated to return under center. Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quad) not expected to see action.
Monday
SEAHAWKS (+4.5) over Saints
This is as tough a road trip as exists in this league on a regular basis. Under normal travel conditions, we’re not intimidated by New Orleans’ recent road form. Seattle QB Geno Smith has staged a one-man revival show since getting a sustained second chance to display his wares running the Seahawks offense. Value is there.
Last week: 5-7-1
Season: 41-45-2