Biden to warn Putin of ‘very real costs’ if Russia attacks Ukraine
President Biden will warn his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that the US and its allies will impose “substantial” economic sanctions if Moscow proceeds with an invasion of Ukraine, according to a senior administration official.
The two leaders were set to speak on a secure video call at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
While the US has not confirmed whether Putin plans to invade Ukraine — and Russian officials have denied any such ambition — Biden is expected to voice his concerns about a substantial military buildup by Russia on the Ukraine border, and warn that there will be “very real costs” if further action is taken, the official said during a preview of the call Monday.
On Monday night, the White House said Biden had spoken with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom to discuss their “shared concern” about Russia’s recent military activities, as well as the Moscow government’s “increasingly harsh rhetoric.” They have called on Russia to de-escalate the tensions along the border, urging diplomacy and vowing to support Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
The Biden-Putin call comes one day after newly released satellite images showing Russian forces continuing to gather at several key strategic points in western Russia and Crimea.
“To be clear, we do not know whether President Putin has made a decision about further military escalation in Ukraine, but we do know that he is putting in place the capacity to engage in such escalation should he decide to do so,” the White House official said.
The official added that despite the tense situation, the administration “does not seek conflict” with Russia.
“We can work together on issues like strategic stability and arms control,” said the official, who later said Biden will make clear to Putin “that there is an effective way forward with respect to diplomacy.”
Russia’s military buildup along the Ukrainian border has been growing for months, with Putin pressuring Ukraine’s government against forming closer ties with the West.
Late last month, the Russian president threatened to retaliate against the US and NATO if they crossed what he deemed a “red line” by deploying missiles in Ukraine. A day later, Putin explained that he wants “strong, reliable and long-term guarantees of [Russia’s] security,” which he defined in part as ruling out Ukraine’s inclusion in the Atlantic alliance.
Biden, who has said he expects to have “a long discussion with Putin,” responded by telling reporters last week that he “won’t accept anybody’s red line.”
On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the Biden call doesn’t “mean to bring matters to a dead end” and emphasized that “Russia has never planned to attack anyone.”
“Putin has repeatedly said that we look for good, predictable relations with the US. Russia has never planned to attack anyone. But we have our own concerns, our own red lines — the president spoke clearly about that. To that, Mr. Biden responded that he doesn’t intend to accept any red lines. This issue will be discussed [during the call] as well,” Peskov said.
If Russia does move to invade, the Washington Post, citing an intelligence document and US officials, reported that such an offensive could take place as soon as early next year and involve up to 175,000 troops.
Experts say Tuesday’s call could have a major influence on Putin’s decision about whether to move forward with military action.
“If he feels the response from the West is not going to be as painful as we think it is, then he’s got that option to invade,” Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official and adjunct senior fellow in the CNAS Transatlantic Security Program, told Fox News.
“But if he’s going to get indications from the West that he’s going to get out of it [something] he finds valuable, that could make him change his mind too,” he added.
Townsend added that Biden will have to “be very specific” about the consequences Russia will face if they move forward.
“I think they’ll be not just the economic and financial sanctions,” he said. “I’m hoping he’ll say something like ‘We will rearm Europe.’ I think he’s going to need to have a military component in there too.”
On Monday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki declined to rule out sending US forces to Ukraine should Russia invade.
“I’m not going to get ahead of the president’s conversations with our trans-Atlantic partners,” she told reporters ahead of Biden’s call with European leaders. “But I would say that our objective here … is conveying diplomatically that this is the moment for Russia to pull back their military buildup at the border.”
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby on Monday also declined to rule out dispatching US forces to Eastern Europe, saying of the Biden-Putin call that “we need to let that conversation happen” first.
Kirby noted that US military advisers had previously been sent to Ukraine on a “rotational” basis, but declined to say how many were in the country as of Monday.
With Post wires
