Casey Cizikas has yet to return after a bout with COVID-19. Matt Martin has been scratched for the last two games with a lingering injury from the preseason, but one he’s played through until now.
When they come back, the Islanders’ fourth line just might look different.
As the Islanders have reached the NHL’s semifinals in each of the last two seasons, the identity line of Martin, Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck has been at the center of their success. Last season, according to MoneyPuck, that grouping played the most minutes of any Islanders forward line, giving up just 13 goals against with a 53.6 percent expected goals rate.
This season, in nearly 118 minutes, they have a 46.6 percent expected goals rate, with one actual goal compared to five allowed. The drop-off has been evident — at 30, Cizikas is the youngest of the three, and before the lineup got mixed up by necessity, the group was regularly getting beaten to loose pucks and struggling to stay with teams.
“They haven’t been as good this year,” Islanders coach Barry Trotz said prior to Thursday’s game against Nashville. “They’ve missed pieces.”
Trotz noted, fairly, that Martin was out of training camp and the preseason with an undisclosed injury that has lingered. At least part of the reason he’s been scratched for the last two games is to let it recover. It’s impossible to know how much effect that’s had on his play and, by extension, the group’s.
But the other part of the reason is evident. With Cizikas still working his way back, Trotz had an opportunity to shake things up and took it. Against Chicago and Ottawa this week, the Islanders rolled out a fourth line of Ross Johnston, Zach Parise and Clutterbuck.
In that limited sample size — 12 minutes total by MoneyPuck’s tracking — the returns have been good.
“He’s done really quite well, Johnner, with Parise and Clutter,” Trotz said. “They’ve been a real trustworthy line. Give us some bang, they’ve been good defensively. Even got some good opportunities offensively cause of their forecheck and their strong play. They haven’t scored but they’ve given us some good shifts and some reliable shifts.”
Johnston’s speed gives this line something it didn’t have prior. Parise is outside of his natural position at center, but perhaps he needed something different, too — after 21 games with the Islanders, he’s still looking for his first goal.
“I know it’s not natural to him but he looks right at home,” Johnston said. “So that transition’s been pretty easy.”
What the Islanders will do when Cizikas is back remains unclear. Though he participated in morning skate on Thursday, Trotz said he could still be “days away.” Breaking up the identity line would be a jolt.
But the Islanders are one of the league’s worst offensive teams by nearly any measure you can find. A jolt might be just what they need, as they head into Thursday 18 points out of third place in the Metropolitan — the last guaranteed playoff spot in the division.
Trotz has been more than open to the idea that they can shake lines up, having done so at times during the last few games — for example putting Oliver Wahlstrom in Josh Bailey’s spot on the first line for a few minutes against Chicago. When asked whether that would continue once the Islanders are healthy, he responded, “Oh yeah, absolutely.”
“I think once we have more cards to deal with then yeah, if you’re playing well then you’re gonna stay in the lineup,” Trotz said. “If you’re not, it’s a much easier decision to pull a guy out. Especially when you’ve got an opportunity, 20, 25 games and nothing’s really happening, it’s a lot easier to make changes, that’s for sure.”