As close as this season was to not coming to fruition, we are somehow here: MLB Opening Day. On Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET, the New York Mets and their estimated $277 million payroll will travel to Washington to take on Juan Soto and the Nationals.
The Mets did run into some odd injury luck with Jacob DeGrom out for at least two months and Max Scherzer pitching tomorrow. Odds according to BetMGM have the Mets as a slight favorite in this matchup. It will be interesting to see how Tylor Megill fairs in Thursday’s game. His fastball had some more juice on it during the spring, touching 97 MPH at times – much faster than his previous average of 94.6 MPH last year.
Whether you are new to betting on baseball or a veteran, be sure to follow the advice given by Furio Giunta from the Sopranos, “Bet with your head, not over it.”
Mets vs. Nationals odds and starting pitchers
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: Mets 1.5 (+135) vs. Nationals +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: Mets -115 vs. Nationals -105
Total: ‘Over’ 9 (-120) | ‘Under’ 9 (+100)
Starting pitchers for Mets vs. Nationals: Tylor Megill (0-0) vs. Patrick Corbin (0-0)
Mets vs. Nationals prediction
Nationals starter Patrick Corbin was absolutely horrific at times last year. On the season he had a 5.82 ERA and the lowest strikeouts per nine innings since his rookie year. An immediate cause of this is an elevated fly-ball ratio compared to his first season in Washington.
Per Fangraphs, Corbin’s fly-ball ratio was 50.5% in 2019 but boomed to 56.3% in 2020 and 52.8% in 2021. Moreover, Corbin had an awful 22.6% fly ball-to-home run ratio last season. For reference, the league average is 10%. Corbin allows hard contact, and when it gets in the air it can go a long way.
Many bettors will be making NRFI (no runs first inning) bets on MLB opening day. It is one of the most popular bets in baseball. However, this is not the game for that. Corbin could have a bounce back year this year, but that is a wait-and-see approach for now.
Although this stat doesn’t actually matter (obligatory history doesn’t help predict future events), the Mets are 39-21 on opening day, the best in the MLB. I actually trust Megill more than Corbin at this point, and the Mets have a better lineup.
Take the Mets to improve their record on Opening Day and even a player home run prop. Francisco Lindor was absolutely on fire in Spring Training with a 1.048 OPS and four home runs. He is +4300 to hit 2+ home runs on FanDuel and +410 to hit just one home run. Worth a .2u bet or less.
Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Mets -1.5 +142 | Lindor HR props (FanDuel)