Luka Doncic returned for the Mavericks on Saturday, and immediately made his presence felt. Unfortunately for Dallas, it wasn’t enough to secure the win.
After missing Game 3, Doncic returned to post 30 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists in only 34 minutes of play. He typically doesn’t rest at all in the first quarter, but he took a seat and subbed out after only six minutes in his first game back after the calf strain. With no setbacks from the injury, we should be looking at heavier minutes for Doncic going forward.
That brings us to tonight. Entering a pivotal Game 5, the Mavericks and the Jazz are tied at two games a piece. It’s important to note that this game is back in Dallas after two in Utah. With the series returning to the Dallas home court, the odds for this game are set at -2.5 to Dallas on BetMGM.
I don’t hate it at all. In fact, in the infamous words of Lloyd Christmas, I like it a lot.
There are plenty of reasons to back Dallas to cover at home, including numerous betting trends. First, Utah is 3-11-1 against the spread in its last 15 games. Utah is also 1-8 against the spread in its last nine meetings with Dallas, and is 3-12 against the spread in its last 15 total road games.
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Dallas is on the flip side of that coin: The Mavericks are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games, and are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games at home. Over the course of the season, Dallas is 39-10 straight up as favorites (like it is tonight) and has a 30-13 home record.
Now with a game under his belt to get past his ankle injury, I’m riding with Doncic and the Mavericks to take care of business on their home court.