The 2022 NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday from Las Vegas. It’s fitting that the NFL’s biggest offseason event is taking place in Las Vegas considering draft props are one of the fastest growing markets since sports betting was legalized in 2018. The entire event will be broadcasted on ESPN and the NFL Network.
With increased interest comes more offerings from sportsbooks. The NFL Draft has gone from a small betting event to hundreds of props available to choose from. However, with NFL Draft props being such a volatile market, it can be difficult to decipher through all the information and know where to place your money.
Here are five tips to help bettors make Draft Day profitable.
Don’t get sucked in by mock drafts
Everyone loves mock drafts and there are thousands of them out there for fans to digest. Be careful how seriously you take mock drafts when it comes to making betting decisions though.
No one knows who these teams will draft. Not Mel Kiper, not Daniel Jeremiah, no one. Analysts combine what they are hearing with player rankings to put together how they see the NFL Draft going. But remember, there is a lot of competition for eyeballs during draft season and sometimes mock drafters make a controversial pick just to draw attention.
Instead of looking at mock drafts, pay more attention to player rankings. If five respectable draft analysts all agree on the top cornerback or have the same receiver going in the Top 10, that’s more valuable information for bettors than someone saying, “This guy is going to the Jets.” The only people who know which players the New York Jets are eyeing work for the team.
Mock drafts are fun to read and argue about, but they won’t help you win money betting on props.
Avoid the national media
This is a big one because it flies in the face of what we believe in for most of the NFL season. We look to news breakers like ESPN’s Adam Schefter to deliver accurate information on everything involved with the NFL. But he’s not as valuable during the NFL Draft.
If anything, guys like Schefter can give misinformation during the draft. He has so many big-time contacts that teams will use Schefter to get out false news on players.
Reporters like Schefter are used to breaking news and being accurate is crucial to their credibility. The difference is the NFL Draft revolves around rumors and hearsay, so they are less likely to run with something unless it comes from a trusted source higher up in the organization.
Peter King is arguably the most tuned-in NFL insider of them all. Last year King told us the 49ers were taking Mac Jones at No. 3. He was half right. They took a quarterback but it was North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. King’s mock and other rumors about Jones made him the overwhelming favorite to go No. 3. Instead, he got drafted 12 spots later by the Patriots.
Beyond news breakers, take everything that’s said on TV or radio with a grain of salt. The NFL Draft is a billion dollar business so everyone needs to have an opinion. Opinions aren’t information. Trust me, media personalities like Stephen A. Smith and Colin Cowherd don’t know who is going where.
Follow local team reporters
The best people to follow during draft season are local beat reporters. Not only do they have a better understanding of the teams they cover, beat reporters also tend to have more contacts inside the organization. That’s imperative during the NFL Draft.
As I already mentioned, the only people who really know which players a team is considering work inside the building. A general manager or a top scout isn’t telling anyone who they like. However, most scouting staffs are large and not everyone is good at keeping secrets. The more close ties a reporter has within an organization, the more likely they are to obtain accurate information about the team.
It’s the job of local beat reporters to establish many contacts throughout the team from the general manager to a lower level scout. Guys like Schefter are covering all 32 teams and don’t have time to develop relationships with a scouting intern with the Philadelphia Eagles.
A great example of this is John McClain, who covered the Houston Texans for years. He always had his finger on the pulse of who Houston was eying during the draft. Follow trustworthy beat reporters leading up to the draft. Their information is invaluable.
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Monitor the betting market
Anyone who bets on NFL football games knows how tight the lines are every week. Most professional bettors will tell you the NFL is the toughest market to beat over an entire season.
The NFL Draft is a little different. Oddsmakers don’t have a big edge because they are going off rumors and mock drafts like the rest of us. It’s not like Jerry Jones is calling BetMGM and telling them who the Cowboys are taking. Then again, you never know with Jerry.
I mentioned Mac Jones above. When Peter King speaks, people listen, including oddsmakers. While Jones was a big favorite to go No. 3 overall once rumors surfaced he was the quarterback the 49ers were eying, Trey Lance’s odds moved to +700.
A few years ago, Baker Mayfield was +1000 to be the first overall selection just 48 hours before the draft. All the rumors and “anonymous sources” had the Browns deciding between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen before news broke that Mayfield was the target right before the draft.
Oddsmakers almost always have an advantage over bettors but the NFL Draft is one of the few times where it’s a level playing field. So, monitor the betting market, but don’t overreact to the betting market. Many times a big line movement creates value elsewhere.
Don’t let personal biases sway your decisions
This is probably the biggest mistake I see many novice bettors make when it comes to NFL Draft props. I understand it’s hard but your personal opinion on players means nothing. The only thing that matters is how NFL teams view players.
Personally, I wouldn’t draft Malik Willis in Round 1. I think he’s too much of a project to select that early. Guess what? Willis is likely to go in the first round. You know why? Because I am not drafting for all 32 teams. What I think about Willis is irrelevant.
Don’t let your personal bias about players affect your decision making when it comes to betting draft props. Tim Tebow was a first-round draft pick because one team fell in love with him.
I’m still paying out on that one.